George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#87
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#137
Pace64.3#300
Improvement+1.1#110

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#145
First Shot-2.0#230
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#38
Layup/Dunks+2.4#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#288
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#338
Freethrows+3.0#40
Improvement-0.3#196

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#41
First Shot+5.6#35
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#190
Layups/Dunks+5.3#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#185
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement+1.4#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 10.8% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 11.9
.500 or above 94.3% 95.1% 82.5%
.500 or above in Conference 86.0% 86.6% 77.5%
Conference Champion 12.2% 12.6% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.4%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round10.4% 10.6% 6.9%
Second Round2.9% 3.0% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Home) - 93.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 33 - 7
Quad 37 - 411 - 10
Quad 410 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 276   NC Central W 75-58 92%     1 - 0 +7.8 -1.7 +9.9
  Nov 08, 2024 18   @ Marquette L 63-82 14%     1 - 1 -0.9 -4.5 +4.4
  Nov 11, 2024 307   Stony Brook W 94-56 94%     2 - 1 +26.9 +16.0 +11.2
  Nov 13, 2024 225   Central Michigan L 69-70 88%     2 - 2 -7.3 -4.5 -2.9
  Nov 16, 2024 159   @ East Carolina L 77-78 2OT 64%     2 - 3 +1.8 -1.8 +3.8
  Nov 20, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-55 99%     3 - 3 +16.8 +19.3 +0.0
  Nov 29, 2024 115   @ James Madison W 66-61 51%     4 - 3 +11.2 +0.8 +10.9
  Dec 03, 2024 166   UNC Asheville W 74-52 83%     5 - 3 +18.5 +3.2 +16.8
  Dec 07, 2024 203   Tulane W 76-64 86%     6 - 3 +7.0 +5.6 +2.2
  Dec 17, 2024 2   @ Duke L 47-68 6%     6 - 4 +3.0 -7.5 +8.2
  Dec 22, 2024 274   Penn W 75-59 93%    
  Dec 28, 2024 253   Mount St. Mary's W 76-61 91%    
  Dec 31, 2024 122   Davidson W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 99   @ Rhode Island L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 216   Richmond W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 11, 2025 191   Massachusetts W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 15, 2025 46   @ Dayton L 63-70 26%    
  Jan 18, 2025 136   George Washington W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 21, 2025 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-65 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 106   Loyola Chicago W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 122   @ Davidson W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 05, 2025 136   @ George Washington W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 99   Rhode Island W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 11, 2025 143   @ Saint Louis W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 96   Saint Joseph's W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-67 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 169   Fordham W 74-64 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 200   @ Duquesne W 66-61 68%    
  Mar 05, 2025 164   La Salle W 74-64 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 216   @ Richmond W 70-64 71%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 3.2 4.1 2.5 0.8 0.2 12.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.2 4.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.3 5.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.7 5.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 5.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.1 2.4 0.2 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 2.0 2.9 0.7 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.0 0.1 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.6 9.7 13.1 14.9 15.3 13.5 9.8 6.1 2.8 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 97.9% 0.8    0.8 0.1
16-2 90.0% 2.5    1.9 0.5 0.0
15-3 67.0% 4.1    2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 32.8% 3.2    1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.4% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 6.3 4.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 77.4% 41.7% 35.7% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.2%
17-1 0.9% 54.0% 38.0% 16.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 25.8%
16-2 2.8% 31.2% 26.1% 5.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.9 6.9%
15-3 6.1% 25.0% 23.6% 1.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.4 4.5 1.8%
14-4 9.8% 19.7% 19.6% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.0 7.8 0.1%
13-5 13.5% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.1 11.6 0.1%
12-6 15.3% 11.1% 11.1% 11.9 0.4 1.2 0.2 13.6
11-7 14.9% 6.3% 6.3% 12.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 13.9
10-8 13.1% 4.6% 4.6% 12.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.5
9-9 9.7% 3.1% 3.1% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.4
8-10 6.6% 1.9% 1.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5
7-11 3.9% 0.8% 0.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 10.1% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 3.8 5.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.5 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 3.2 3.2 48.4 22.6 16.1 3.2 3.2