George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#75
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#53
Pace62.0#334
Improvement+1.4#126

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#196
First Shot-2.0#233
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#112
Layup/Dunks+1.7#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#268
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#321
Freethrows+2.6#46
Improvement-0.2#192

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#17
First Shot+6.7#25
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#57
Layups/Dunks+6.3#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#245
Freethrows+1.9#64
Improvement+1.5#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 23.6% 15.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.2% 6.0% 1.3%
Average Seed 11.1 10.7 11.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 67.4% 98.6% 59.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 4.3% 1.1%
First Round16.2% 20.8% 15.0%
Second Round3.8% 5.3% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 20.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 24 - 15 - 4
Quad 39 - 214 - 6
Quad 410 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 310   NC Central W 75-58 95%     1 - 0 +5.8 -3.3 +9.6
  Nov 08, 2024 29   @ Marquette L 63-82 18%     1 - 1 -1.7 -3.8 +2.9
  Nov 11, 2024 320   Stony Brook W 94-56 95%     2 - 1 +26.1 +13.9 +12.4
  Nov 13, 2024 215   Central Michigan L 69-70 88%     2 - 2 -6.3 -6.2 -0.1
  Nov 16, 2024 150   @ East Carolina L 77-78 2OT 66%     2 - 3 +2.2 -2.9 +5.2
  Nov 20, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 93-55 99%     3 - 3 +17.0 +20.7 -1.2
  Nov 29, 2024 138   @ James Madison W 66-61 64%     4 - 3 +8.8 -0.6 +9.8
  Dec 03, 2024 184   UNC Asheville W 74-52 86%     5 - 3 +18.2 +1.9 +17.8
  Dec 07, 2024 144   Tulane W 76-64 81%     6 - 3 +10.5 +7.3 +3.9
  Dec 17, 2024 2   @ Duke L 47-68 5%     6 - 4 +5.1 -8.9 +11.6
  Dec 22, 2024 260   Penn W 85-53 92%     7 - 4 +24.1 +8.3 +16.4
  Dec 28, 2024 258   Mount St. Mary's W 64-56 92%     8 - 4 +0.1 -9.0 +9.4
  Dec 31, 2024 129   Davidson W 69-57 79%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +11.2 +4.1 +8.9
  Jan 04, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island L 59-62 61%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +1.8 -7.4 +9.0
  Jan 08, 2025 218   Richmond W 64-58 89%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +0.3 +0.4 +1.0
  Jan 11, 2025 168   Massachusetts W 77-70 84%     11 - 5 3 - 1 +4.1 +5.1 -1.0
  Jan 15, 2025 83   @ Dayton W 67-59 43%     12 - 5 4 - 1 +17.3 +9.0 +9.9
  Jan 18, 2025 117   George Washington W 80-77 2OT 76%     13 - 5 5 - 1 +3.2 -4.3 +7.1
  Jan 21, 2025 106   @ St. Bonaventure W 75-62 54%     14 - 5 6 - 1 +19.6 +12.2 +8.3
  Jan 29, 2025 110   Loyola Chicago W 58-53 OT 74%     15 - 5 7 - 1 +5.8 -9.6 +15.7
  Feb 01, 2025 129   @ Davidson W 64-60 63%     16 - 5 8 - 1 +8.3 -1.0 +9.8
  Feb 05, 2025 117   @ George Washington W 53-50 59%     17 - 5 9 - 1 +8.3 -14.2 +22.6
  Feb 08, 2025 121   Rhode Island W 82-67 77%     18 - 5 10 - 1 +14.7 +17.0 -0.8
  Feb 11, 2025 109   @ Saint Louis W 76-74 OT 56%     19 - 5 11 - 1 +7.9 +7.5 +0.4
  Feb 15, 2025 78   Saint Joseph's W 58-57 61%     20 - 5 12 - 1 +5.8 +0.6 +5.4
  Feb 22, 2025 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 59-67 21%    
  Feb 26, 2025 204   Fordham W 74-61 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 132   @ Duquesne W 62-59 60%    
  Mar 05, 2025 236   La Salle W 72-58 91%    
  Mar 08, 2025 218   @ Richmond W 66-58 76%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 19.1 38.3 8.4 67.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 11.6 18.7 32.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 2.1 13.2 37.9 38.3 8.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 8.4    8.4
16-2 100.0% 38.3    22.5 15.8
15-3 50.5% 19.1    5.5 13.7
14-4 11.6% 1.5    0.2 1.3
13-5 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 67.4% 67.4 36.6 30.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 8.4% 30.2% 22.7% 7.5% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 0.1 5.9 9.7%
16-2 38.3% 19.3% 16.8% 2.5% 11.1 0.1 0.5 5.3 1.6 30.9 3.0%
15-3 37.9% 15.1% 14.3% 0.8% 11.3 0.1 3.5 2.1 0.0 32.2 1.0%
14-4 13.2% 11.2% 11.0% 0.2% 11.6 0.6 0.8 0.0 11.7 0.2%
13-5 2.1% 6.1% 6.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 2.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.3% 15.4% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 10.7 4.7 0.1 82.8 2.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 10.1 1.6 3.1 21.5 29.8 42.4 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 15.2% 10.9 0.5 1.8 11.1 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2% 9.9% 11.1 0.9 6.8 2.3