Samford
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#127
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#150
Pace80.2#10
Improvement+1.2#60

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#73
First Shot+1.1#136
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#52
Layup/Dunks+0.6#159
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#61
Freethrows-1.9#280
Improvement+2.0#6

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#217
First Shot+0.5#167
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#295
Layups/Dunks-2.7#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#18
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#123
Freethrows-1.8#276
Improvement-0.9#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.3% 25.7% 18.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 92.3% 94.6% 82.4%
.500 or above in Conference 90.9% 92.3% 84.9%
Conference Champion 33.3% 35.6% 23.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round24.2% 25.6% 18.0%
Second Round3.1% 3.5% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 415 - 321 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 167   @ Cornell L 86-88 50%     0 - 1 +0.5 -2.0 +2.7
  Nov 15, 2024 187   @ North Alabama W 97-96 OT 53%     1 - 1 +2.7 +3.4 -0.9
  Nov 17, 2024 266   Texas Southern W 97-82 84%     2 - 1 +6.7 +14.2 -8.5
  Nov 19, 2024 35   @ Michigan St. L 75-83 13%     2 - 2 +6.8 +10.1 -3.2
  Nov 26, 2024 242   North Dakota St. W 84-75 81%    
  Nov 27, 2024 137   Utah Valley W 80-76 64%    
  Nov 29, 2024 353   West Georgia W 90-71 96%    
  Dec 05, 2024 321   @ South Carolina St. W 84-76 77%    
  Dec 08, 2024 231   Austin Peay W 81-72 79%    
  Dec 18, 2024 13   @ Arizona L 79-95 7%    
  Dec 21, 2024 346   @ Alabama A&M W 86-74 85%    
  Jan 01, 2025 309   The Citadel W 83-69 89%    
  Jan 04, 2025 258   @ Western Carolina W 79-75 65%    
  Jan 09, 2025 347   VMI W 93-75 94%    
  Jan 11, 2025 170   UNC Greensboro W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 15, 2025 254   @ Mercer W 82-78 64%    
  Jan 18, 2025 188   East Tennessee St. W 84-77 72%    
  Jan 22, 2025 168   @ Chattanooga L 80-81 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 204   Wofford W 81-73 75%    
  Jan 29, 2025 135   @ Furman L 81-83 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 309   @ The Citadel W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 05, 2025 254   Mercer W 85-75 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 188   @ East Tennessee St. W 81-80 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 168   Chattanooga W 84-78 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 204   @ Wofford W 78-76 55%    
  Feb 19, 2025 135   Furman W 84-80 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 258   Western Carolina W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 27, 2025 347   @ VMI W 90-78 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 170   @ UNC Greensboro W 77-76 50%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.0 7.9 8.9 6.8 3.6 1.0 33.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.3 7.3 5.1 1.8 0.2 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.0 5.9 2.7 0.4 15.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.4 1.4 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.0 0.8 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.2 0.7 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.3 6.6 9.2 11.7 13.6 14.2 13.4 10.7 7.0 3.6 1.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 3.6    3.6 0.0
16-2 97.3% 6.8    6.2 0.6 0.0
15-3 83.3% 8.9    6.7 2.1 0.1
14-4 59.1% 7.9    4.3 3.1 0.5 0.0
13-5 28.5% 4.0    1.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.8% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.3% 33.3 23.2 8.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 60.7% 59.7% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4%
17-1 3.6% 55.1% 55.0% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.3%
16-2 7.0% 46.8% 46.7% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.7 0.1%
15-3 10.7% 38.8% 38.8% 13.0 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.9 0.1 6.5
14-4 13.4% 32.6% 32.6% 13.4 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.0
13-5 14.2% 25.7% 25.7% 13.8 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.0 10.5
12-6 13.6% 19.0% 19.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 11.0
11-7 11.7% 14.7% 14.7% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 9.9
10-8 9.2% 11.1% 11.1% 14.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 8.1
9-9 6.6% 8.4% 8.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 6.0
8-10 4.3% 5.5% 5.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.1
7-11 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.4
6-12 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.7 7.9 6.7 3.4 0.9 75.7 0.0%