Samford
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#113
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#114
Pace74.2#46
Improvement-2.7#299

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#109
First Shot-0.4#189
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#36
Layup/Dunks-1.7#240
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#25
Freethrows-3.1#342
Improvement-6.1#364

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#154
First Shot+0.8#150
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#201
Layups/Dunks+0.5#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#162
Freethrows-1.3#270
Improvement+3.4#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.9% 23.2% 18.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 13.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 4.8% 5.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.9% 23.2% 18.2%
Second Round1.8% 1.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 94.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 23 - 23 - 4
Quad 37 - 59 - 9
Quad 412 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 164   @ Cornell L 86-88 52%     0 - 1 +0.4 -2.6 +3.3
  Nov 15, 2024 134   @ North Alabama W 97-96 OT 46%     1 - 1 +4.9 +4.5 +0.2
  Nov 17, 2024 296   Texas Southern W 97-82 88%     2 - 1 +4.9 +16.1 -12.2
  Nov 19, 2024 12   @ Michigan St. L 75-83 6%     2 - 2 +12.8 +12.4 +0.5
  Nov 26, 2024 136   North Dakota St. W 103-98 OT 66%     3 - 2 +3.8 +17.9 -14.4
  Nov 27, 2024 125   Utah Valley W 84-76 63%     4 - 2 +7.5 +5.2 +1.6
  Nov 29, 2024 348   West Georgia W 86-65 95%     5 - 2 +5.7 +6.4 -0.6
  Dec 05, 2024 210   @ South Carolina St. W 88-81 61%     6 - 2 +7.0 +20.0 -12.8
  Dec 08, 2024 276   Austin Peay W 72-47 87%     7 - 2 +16.0 +1.3 +16.8
  Dec 18, 2024 8   @ Arizona L 64-96 5%     7 - 3 -10.7 +1.4 -11.5
  Dec 21, 2024 359   @ Alabama A&M W 97-90 91%     8 - 3 -5.1 +8.3 -14.3
  Jan 01, 2025 358   The Citadel W 86-56 96%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +13.1 +12.5 +2.9
  Jan 04, 2025 333   @ Western Carolina W 88-69 85%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +10.8 +8.2 +1.7
  Jan 09, 2025 309   VMI W 81-68 90%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +2.0 +1.7 -0.1
  Jan 11, 2025 154   UNC Greensboro W 76-69 68%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +5.0 +9.6 -3.9
  Jan 15, 2025 256   @ Mercer W 75-74 71%     13 - 3 5 - 0 -1.7 -1.1 -0.7
  Jan 18, 2025 148   East Tennessee St. L 60-65 68%     13 - 4 5 - 1 -6.8 -12.0 +5.1
  Jan 23, 2025 119   @ Chattanooga W 73-69 41%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +9.3 +2.5 +6.9
  Jan 25, 2025 142   Wofford W 77-61 67%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +14.5 +12.8 +4.1
  Jan 29, 2025 159   @ Furman L 70-72 51%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +0.7 -1.8 +2.5
  Feb 01, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 83-58 91%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +13.2 +10.1 +4.5
  Feb 05, 2025 256   Mercer W 100-79 84%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +13.2 +13.6 -2.7
  Feb 08, 2025 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 59-66 49%     17 - 6 9 - 3 -3.7 -9.6 +5.6
  Feb 12, 2025 119   Chattanooga L 68-82 61%     17 - 7 9 - 4 -13.8 -8.1 -5.9
  Feb 15, 2025 142   @ Wofford W 76-68 47%     18 - 7 10 - 4 +11.6 +5.7 +6.2
  Feb 19, 2025 159   Furman L 72-80 70%     18 - 8 10 - 5 -10.4 -4.7 -5.4
  Feb 22, 2025 333   Western Carolina W 86-70 95%    
  Feb 27, 2025 309   @ VMI W 80-71 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 154   @ UNC Greensboro L 71-72 48%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 4.8 4.8 1st
2nd 0.1 15.1 30.9 46.0 2nd
3rd 5.8 34.8 40.5 3rd
4th 0.1 8.1 8.3 4th
5th 0.4 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.6 13.9 49.8 35.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 13.4% 4.8    0.1 1.9 2.8
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 4.8% 4.8 0.1 1.9 2.8



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 35.7% 29.0% 29.0% 12.9 3.0 5.7 1.6 0.0 25.3
12-6 49.8% 20.1% 20.1% 13.5 0.5 4.4 4.5 0.7 0.0 39.8
11-7 13.9% 17.4% 17.4% 13.8 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.3 11.5
10-8 0.6% 20.7% 20.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 13.3 3.5 10.8 7.7 1.0 0.0 77.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.4% 100.0% 12.9 29.2 54.8 15.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.9%
Lose Out 0.3%