UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#170
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#144
Pace63.2#333
Improvement-0.4#228

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#182
First Shot-0.3#193
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#179
Layup/Dunks-1.7#238
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#91
Freethrows-0.7#222
Improvement-1.1#329

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#183
First Shot-1.3#220
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#125
Layups/Dunks+5.9#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#253
Freethrows-2.1#290
Improvement+0.7#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 23.3% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 12.9 13.9
.500 or above 65.0% 88.6% 63.7%
.500 or above in Conference 74.3% 87.9% 73.6%
Conference Champion 15.9% 28.8% 15.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.6% 2.3%
First Four0.6% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round13.1% 23.2% 12.6%
Second Round1.3% 3.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 5.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 412 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 216   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 69%     1 - 0 +3.3 +4.1 -0.1
  Nov 11, 2024 68   @ SMU L 68-81 14%     1 - 1 -1.7 -3.7 +2.5
  Nov 21, 2024 22   @ Indiana L 62-79 5%    
  Nov 25, 2024 259   Long Beach St. W 71-67 66%    
  Nov 26, 2024 251   San Jose St. W 69-65 64%    
  Nov 27, 2024 203   UTEP W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 03, 2024 125   High Point L 71-72 50%    
  Dec 07, 2024 272   @ N.C. A&T W 73-71 58%    
  Dec 14, 2024 175   @ North Florida L 72-75 40%    
  Dec 21, 2024 263   @ Elon W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 01, 2025 204   @ Wofford L 67-68 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 135   Furman W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 168   @ Chattanooga L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 127   @ Samford L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 15, 2025 309   The Citadel W 71-60 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 258   @ Western Carolina W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 22, 2025 254   Mercer W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 347   @ VMI W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 29, 2025 188   East Tennessee St. W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 204   Wofford W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 05, 2025 309   @ The Citadel W 68-63 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 258   Western Carolina W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 12, 2025 347   VMI W 79-64 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 135   @ Furman L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 19, 2025 188   @ East Tennessee St. L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 254   @ Mercer W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 27, 2025 168   Chattanooga W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 127   Samford L 76-77 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.3 4.3 2.7 1.1 0.3 15.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.3 5.6 3.1 0.8 0.1 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.2 5.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.2 4.7 1.3 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 5.0 4.4 1.1 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 4.2 3.7 0.7 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.4 9.1 11.1 12.0 12.3 11.7 10.3 7.7 5.1 2.7 1.1 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 97.2% 2.7    2.4 0.2 0.0
15-3 83.4% 4.3    3.2 1.1 0.0
14-4 56.2% 4.3    2.3 1.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 24.5% 2.5    0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.8% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 10.0 4.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 55.8% 54.8% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2.1%
17-1 1.1% 54.2% 53.7% 0.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.0%
16-2 2.7% 39.5% 39.5% 12.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7
15-3 5.1% 34.9% 34.9% 13.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.3
14-4 7.7% 27.7% 27.7% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.6
13-5 10.3% 23.2% 23.2% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 7.9
12-6 11.7% 16.4% 16.4% 14.2 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 9.8
11-7 12.3% 11.2% 11.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 10.9
10-8 12.0% 7.3% 7.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 11.1
9-9 11.1% 5.3% 5.3% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 10.5
8-10 9.1% 3.2% 3.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.8
7-11 6.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.3
6-12 4.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.6
5-13 2.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.6 3.9 2.7 1.2 86.6 0.0%