UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#159
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#190
Pace63.1#323
Improvement-3.2#341

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#195
First Shot-0.9#203
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#180
Layup/Dunks-4.2#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#56
Freethrows-1.2#256
Improvement-0.5#216

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#139
First Shot+2.0#114
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#274
Layups/Dunks+3.2#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#162
Freethrows+0.3#171
Improvement-2.8#344
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 15.4% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 64.2% 79.3% 54.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.8% 91.8% 75.6%
Conference Champion 14.0% 22.7% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
First Round11.7% 15.2% 9.5%
Second Round0.7% 1.2% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 38.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 411 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 161   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 62%     1 - 0 +5.8 +4.4 +2.2
  Nov 11, 2024 40   @ SMU L 68-81 9%     1 - 1 +1.5 -3.0 +5.1
  Nov 21, 2024 53   @ Indiana L 58-69 12%     1 - 2 +2.0 -6.7 +8.3
  Nov 25, 2024 256   Long Beach St. W 71-48 69%     2 - 2 +17.8 +2.2 +17.9
  Nov 26, 2024 151   San Jose St. L 64-69 49%     2 - 3 -4.8 -6.3 +1.2
  Nov 27, 2024 137   UTEP L 58-64 45%     2 - 4 -4.7 -3.5 -2.1
  Dec 03, 2024 127   High Point W 72-68 55%     3 - 4 +2.7 +7.2 -3.8
  Dec 07, 2024 314   @ N.C. A&T W 67-55 70%     4 - 4 +6.7 -2.9 +10.7
  Dec 14, 2024 205   @ North Florida L 77-89 47%     4 - 5 -11.2 -0.9 -10.1
  Dec 21, 2024 167   @ Elon L 69-73 40%     4 - 6 -1.4 +4.9 -6.8
  Jan 01, 2025 154   @ Wofford L 66-69 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 112   Furman L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 172   @ Chattanooga L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 118   @ Samford L 74-80 31%    
  Jan 15, 2025 352   The Citadel W 73-57 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 317   @ Western Carolina W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 22, 2025 231   Mercer W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 345   @ VMI W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 29, 2025 139   East Tennessee St. W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 154   Wofford W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 05, 2025 352   @ The Citadel W 70-60 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 317   Western Carolina W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 12, 2025 345   VMI W 76-61 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 112   @ Furman L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 19, 2025 139   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 231   @ Mercer W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 27, 2025 172   Chattanooga W 71-67 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 118   Samford W 77-76 51%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.6 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 14.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.5 3.1 0.6 0.0 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.0 6.5 2.7 0.2 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.9 7.4 2.2 0.1 15.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.5 6.5 2.2 0.1 14.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 4.0 5.5 1.9 0.1 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.8 5.1 8.3 11.9 14.2 15.5 13.5 12.1 8.0 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 98.3% 1.8    1.6 0.1
15-3 86.7% 3.7    2.7 0.9 0.1
14-4 58.1% 4.6    2.3 2.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 22.6% 2.7    0.5 1.3 0.9 0.1
12-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 7.9 4.5 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 64.7% 64.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 50.0% 50.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3
16-2 1.8% 35.5% 35.5% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2
15-3 4.3% 28.5% 28.5% 13.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 3.1
14-4 8.0% 22.6% 22.6% 13.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 6.2
13-5 12.1% 20.1% 20.1% 13.9 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 9.7
12-6 13.5% 14.2% 14.2% 14.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 11.6
11-7 15.5% 9.2% 9.2% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 14.1
10-8 14.2% 6.5% 6.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 13.3
9-9 11.9% 6.6% 6.6% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 11.1
8-10 8.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.3 8.0
7-11 5.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 5.0
6-12 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 88.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 10.6 18.2 81.8