UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#144
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#148
Pace61.8#338
Improvement-0.9#229

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#160
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#146
Layup/Dunks-3.8#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#55
Freethrows-0.9#244
Improvement+1.4#116

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#163
First Shot+2.4#95
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#328
Layups/Dunks+3.4#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#168
Freethrows+0.4#152
Improvement-2.3#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% 23.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.9% 23.3% 0.0%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 36 - 68 - 9
Quad 411 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 181   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 67%     1 - 0 +5.3 +2.9 +3.1
  Nov 11, 2024 43   @ SMU L 68-81 11%     1 - 1 +1.5 -2.8 +4.9
  Nov 21, 2024 44   @ Indiana L 58-69 11%     1 - 2 +3.5 -5.5 +8.6
  Nov 25, 2024 301   Long Beach St. W 71-48 80%     2 - 2 +15.1 +0.5 +16.9
  Nov 26, 2024 160   San Jose St. L 64-69 53%     2 - 3 -5.0 -5.5 +0.2
  Nov 27, 2024 150   UTEP L 58-64 51%     2 - 4 -5.5 -4.5 -1.9
  Dec 03, 2024 95   High Point W 72-68 42%     3 - 4 +6.9 +9.0 -1.4
  Dec 07, 2024 326   @ N.C. A&T W 67-55 78%     4 - 4 +4.8 -1.8 +7.8
  Dec 14, 2024 278   @ North Florida L 77-89 67%     4 - 5 -15.7 -3.4 -12.0
  Dec 21, 2024 200   @ Elon L 69-73 51%     4 - 6 -3.3 +3.6 -7.4
  Jan 01, 2025 143   @ Wofford W 68-66 39%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +5.7 +2.3 +3.6
  Jan 04, 2025 148   Furman W 84-67 61%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +14.9 +19.2 -2.4
  Jan 09, 2025 114   @ Chattanooga W 78-75 32%     7 - 6 3 - 0 +8.7 +13.3 -4.2
  Jan 11, 2025 115   @ Samford L 69-76 32%     7 - 7 3 - 1 -1.3 +3.2 -5.1
  Jan 15, 2025 357   The Citadel W 70-57 94%     8 - 7 4 - 1 -4.1 -1.4 -1.0
  Jan 18, 2025 338   @ Western Carolina W 83-55 82%     9 - 7 5 - 1 +19.0 +12.4 +8.5
  Jan 22, 2025 257   Mercer L 78-79 80%     9 - 8 5 - 2 -9.0 -0.2 -8.8
  Jan 25, 2025 311   @ VMI W 60-57 74%     10 - 8 6 - 2 -2.9 -10.8 +8.0
  Jan 29, 2025 146   East Tennessee St. W 70-65 61%     11 - 8 7 - 2 +3.1 +14.4 -10.1
  Feb 01, 2025 143   Wofford L 62-74 60%     11 - 9 7 - 3 -13.7 -7.0 -8.1
  Feb 05, 2025 357   @ The Citadel W 76-61 88%     12 - 9 8 - 3 +3.3 +10.1 -4.4
  Feb 08, 2025 338   Western Carolina W 74-70 92%     13 - 9 9 - 3 -10.4 -1.4 -8.9
  Feb 12, 2025 311   VMI W 80-54 87%     14 - 9 10 - 3 +14.6 +2.6 +12.1
  Feb 15, 2025 148   @ Furman W 58-50 41%     15 - 9 11 - 3 +11.3 -6.5 +18.8
  Feb 19, 2025 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 49-65 40%     15 - 10 11 - 4 -12.5 -13.0 -2.2
  Feb 22, 2025 257   @ Mercer W 78-61 63%     16 - 10 12 - 4 +14.5 +10.4 +5.0
  Feb 27, 2025 114   Chattanooga L 63-75 52%     16 - 11 12 - 5 -11.7 -6.2 -7.0
  Mar 01, 2025 115   Samford W 108-100 52%     17 - 11 13 - 5 +8.3 +26.6 -18.9
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 19.9% 19.9% 13.7 0.4 6.5 11.0 2.1 80.1
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.4 6.5 11.0 2.1 80.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 19.9% 100.0% 13.7 1.8 32.6 55.1 10.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 22.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 42.6%
Lose Out 14.7%