Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
127 Samford 24.0%   14   2 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +2.4      +3.8 76 -1.4 217 80.2 10 +2.4 152 0.0 1
133 Furman 22.2%   3 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +1.9      +1.6 128 +0.3 156 70.9 127 +13.9 28 0.0 1
169 Chattanooga 12.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -0.5      +0.6 164 -1.1 204 69.1 182 -2.3 215 0.0 1
171 UNC Greensboro 13.3%   1 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -0.6      -0.3 183 -0.3 181 63.8 323 +2.8 143 0.0 1
188 East Tennessee St. 10.8%   0 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1.3      +0.8 158 -2.1 241 67.4 240 -14.9 343 0.0 1
206 Wofford 8.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -2.2      +1.3 137 -3.4 288 61.8 348 -11.7 315 0.0 1
252 Mercer 4.3%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -4.7      -2.7 251 -2.0 239 69.8 164 -9.7 306 0.0 1
258 Western Carolina 3.9%   0 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 16 8 - 10 -5.0      -4.4 302 -0.5 190 67.7 230 -13.8 332 0.0 1
317 The Citadel 0.9%   1 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 17 6 - 12 -8.7      -5.8 331 -3.0 267 64.3 318 -12.0 318 0.0 1
344 VMI 0.1%   2 - 2 0 - 0 7 - 20 4 - 14 -12.4      -7.4 348 -5.0 330 78.7 20 -5.3 258 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Samford 2.8 33.3 21.4 15.2 11.0 7.8 5.4 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1
Furman 3.0 30.0 20.3 15.3 11.7 8.6 6.1 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.3
Chattanooga 4.0 14.5 15.7 15.6 14.7 12.9 10.7 7.7 5.1 2.4 0.6
UNC Greensboro 4.1 15.6 15.4 14.6 13.6 12.5 10.2 8.2 5.8 3.1 1.1
East Tennessee St. 4.4 12.6 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.0 11.7 9.7 7.0 3.9 1.4
Wofford 4.8 9.3 11.1 12.4 13.4 13.4 13.0 11.7 8.9 5.1 1.7
Mercer 6.0 4.1 5.9 7.7 9.8 11.7 13.5 15.4 15.0 11.6 5.3
Western Carolina 6.1 3.7 5.5 7.1 9.7 11.6 13.6 15.2 15.8 11.9 6.0
The Citadel 7.8 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.7 8.8 13.0 19.8 26.9 18.1
VMI 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.4 6.7 12.4 24.9 49.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Samford 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.7 8.9 11.8 13.3 14.3 13.7 10.9 7.2 3.4 1.0
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.4 4.9 7.4 9.8 11.7 13.5 13.6 12.4 9.6 6.3 3.2 0.9
Chattanooga 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.2 6.3 9.0 11.0 13.0 13.7 12.7 10.3 7.8 4.7 2.4 0.9 0.2
UNC Greensboro 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.6 6.6 8.5 11.0 12.4 12.5 11.9 10.2 7.7 5.1 2.7 1.1 0.3
East Tennessee St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.7 5.6 7.7 9.9 11.6 12.6 12.0 11.2 8.8 6.6 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.1
Wofford 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.5 7.1 9.5 11.2 12.3 12.7 11.6 9.5 7.5 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
Mercer 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 2.0 4.0 6.5 9.1 10.8 12.5 12.1 11.5 9.9 7.9 5.5 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.2 6.9 9.5 11.0 12.0 12.5 11.4 9.9 7.4 5.3 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 6 - 12 1.0 3.8 7.7 11.3 14.2 14.6 13.6 11.0 8.3 5.9 3.9 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
VMI 4 - 14 5.5 12.7 17.2 17.9 15.3 11.7 8.4 5.4 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Samford 33.3% 23.2 7.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Furman 30.0% 20.6 7.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 14.5% 8.8 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 15.6% 9.8 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0
East Tennessee St. 12.6% 7.6 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wofford 9.3% 5.4 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mercer 4.1% 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 3.7% 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Samford 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.5 7.7 6.7 3.4 0.9 76.0 0.0%
Furman 22.2% 22.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 6.8 7.4 4.5 1.7 0.3 77.8 0.1%
Chattanooga 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 3.7 3.5 1.8 87.8 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.4 3.7 2.9 1.3 86.7 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.8 89.2 0.0%
Wofford 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.8 91.6 0.0%
Mercer 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.7 95.7 0.0%
Western Carolina 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.9 96.1 0.0%
The Citadel 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 99.1 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Samford 24.0% 0.3% 23.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 22.2% 0.2% 22.1% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 12.2% 0.7% 11.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 13.3% 0.7% 13.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 10.8% 1.4% 10.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 8.4% 1.7% 7.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 4.3% 1.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 3.9% 1.3% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 96.7% 1.0 3.3 96.6 0.1
2nd Round 9.5% 0.1 90.5 9.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0