Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
113 Samford 22.9%   18 - 8 10 - 5 20 - 9 12 - 6 +2.9      +2.2 109 +0.7 154 74.2 46 +3.6 114 +1.4 3
119 Chattanooga 25.9%   14   18 - 8 12 - 3 20 - 9 14 - 4 +2.7      +5.3 61 -2.6 247 67.1 207 +3.9 110 +5.8 1
142 Wofford 13.0%   13 - 13 9 - 6 15 - 14 11 - 7 +1.1      +2.4 104 -1.3 212 62.0 336 -0.6 173 0.0 5
148 East Tennessee St. 11.7%   14 - 12 9 - 6 16 - 13 11 - 7 +0.7      -0.2 178 +0.9 148 64.5 285 -1.5 188 0.0 4
154 UNC Greensboro 15.6%   15 - 10 11 - 4 17 - 11 13 - 5 +0.6      -0.5 189 +1.0 144 61.8 340 +1.0 150 +3.4 2
159 Furman 9.1%   17 - 8 8 - 7 19 - 9 10 - 8 +0.1      +0.8 154 -0.6 188 64.6 279 +3.2 119 -1.4 6
256 Mercer 1.3%   10 - 16 5 - 10 11 - 18 6 - 12 -5.3      -3.9 278 -1.4 214 76.4 21 -5.5 261 -7.1 8
309 VMI 0.4%   9 - 15 7 - 8 10 - 17 8 - 10 -8.5      -5.7 319 -2.8 250 69.9 130 -6.3 272 -3.8 7
333 Western Carolina 0.1%   5 - 18 4 - 11 5 - 21 4 - 14 -10.8      -6.4 332 -4.4 304 73.8 51 -11.0 330 -9.5 9
358 The Citadel 0.0%   1 - 21 0 - 15 1 - 24 0 - 18 -14.3      -8.3 353 -6.0 338 63.1 312 -22.5 361 -22.9 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Samford 2.5 4.8 46.0 40.5 8.3 0.4 0.0
Chattanooga 1.0 95.2 4.8 0.1
Wofford 4.0 6.3 31.0 29.8 18.5 14.3 0.0
East Tennessee St. 4.1 4.7 25.9 31.5 32.5 5.3
UNC Greensboro 2.1 24.7 48.6 21.2 5.5
Furman 5.2 0.0 5.0 18.6 25.0 50.7 0.8
Mercer 7.8 0.0 24.7 72.1 3.2
VMI 7.0 0.0 0.4 4.9 91.5 3.2
Western Carolina 8.9 0.1 13.8 86.1
The Citadel 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Samford 12 - 6 0.6 13.9 49.8 35.7
Chattanooga 14 - 4 0.4 13.4 50.1 36.1
Wofford 11 - 7 3.1 20.4 42.5 34.0
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 1.9 18.2 53.4 26.5
UNC Greensboro 13 - 5 9.2 33.3 39.4 18.1
Furman 10 - 8 0.7 11.9 58.1 29.4
Mercer 6 - 12 11.3 46.8 35.4 6.5
VMI 8 - 10 53.5 36.0 9.6 0.9
Western Carolina 4 - 14 60.2 33.3 6.2 0.3
The Citadel 0 - 18 80.2 18.4 1.4 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Samford 4.8% 0.1 1.9 2.8
Chattanooga 95.2% 73.4 19.0 2.8
Wofford
East Tennessee St.
UNC Greensboro 24.7% 4.7 17.2 2.8
Furman
Mercer
VMI
Western Carolina
The Citadel


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Samford 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 3.5 10.8 7.7 1.0 0.0 77.1 0.0%
Chattanooga 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 14   0.1 5.4 12.5 7.4 0.6 0.0 74.1 0.0%
Wofford 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.6 3.2 5.2 3.8 0.2 87.0 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.1 2.3 6.0 3.3 0.1 88.3 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.7 4.8 7.8 2.3 0.0 84.4 0.0%
Furman 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.3 2.7 4.6 1.5 0.1 90.9 0.0%
Mercer 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 98.7 0.0%
VMI 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Samford 22.9% 0.0% 22.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 25.9% 0.0% 25.9% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 13.0% 0.1% 13.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 11.7% 0.0% 11.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 15.6% 0.0% 15.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 9.1% 0.0% 9.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 99.4
2nd Round 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0