Preseason Rankings
Southern
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
138 Samford 18.0%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +1.4      +2.7 103 -1.3 215 80.2 7 0.0 1 0.0 1
147 Chattanooga 16.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +0.9      +2.2 114 -1.3 216 67.1 220 0.0 1 0.0 1
153 Wofford 15.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +0.5      +2.2 112 -1.8 235 64.6 292 0.0 1 0.0 1
165 Furman 13.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 0.0      +0.9 145 -0.9 198 70.9 104 0.0 1 0.0 1
170 East Tennessee St. 12.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 -0.3      -0.8 196 +0.5 152 67.4 213 0.0 1 0.0 1
188 UNC Greensboro 10.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -1.0      -0.3 178 -0.7 193 63.1 324 0.0 1 0.0 1
208 Mercer 7.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -2.4      -1.3 214 -1.1 206 65.5 270 0.0 1 0.0 1
238 Western Carolina 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 9 - 9 -3.6      -2.0 245 -1.6 225 67.2 216 0.0 1 0.0 1
325 The Citadel 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 17 5 - 13 -9.5      -5.2 325 -4.3 321 64.3 303 0.0 1 0.0 1
361 VMI 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 23 2 - 16 -16.0      -9.1 360 -6.9 359 85.1 2 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Samford 3.5 23.8 17.7 14.5 12.1 10.2 8.5 6.4 4.5 2.0 0.3
Chattanooga 3.8 20.6 16.6 14.3 12.7 11.0 9.4 7.5 5.1 2.4 0.4
Wofford 3.9 18.7 16.0 14.3 12.9 11.4 9.9 7.9 5.6 2.8 0.4
Furman 4.1 16.6 14.9 13.8 12.8 12.0 10.8 8.9 6.6 3.1 0.6
East Tennessee St. 4.3 15.5 14.1 13.2 13.0 12.1 10.8 9.6 7.3 3.6 0.8
UNC Greensboro 4.6 12.8 12.4 12.5 13.0 12.6 11.8 11.0 8.4 4.4 1.0
Mercer 5.1 8.8 9.9 10.6 11.4 12.3 13.1 13.1 12.2 6.9 1.6
Western Carolina 5.7 6.2 7.7 8.8 10.1 11.5 13.3 14.5 15.4 10.0 2.6
The Citadel 7.9 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.8 7.2 11.7 19.4 35.2 14.8
VMI 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 3.0 7.2 21.9 65.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Samford 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.6 6.6 8.6 10.3 11.6 12.4 11.9 10.5 8.2 5.4 2.7 0.8
Chattanooga 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.3 7.3 9.6 10.7 12.2 12.0 11.2 9.7 7.2 4.4 2.2 0.6
Wofford 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.7 8.0 9.8 10.9 12.2 12.2 10.7 9.1 6.4 4.0 2.0 0.5
Furman 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.4 6.4 8.9 10.3 11.6 11.7 11.6 10.2 8.1 5.9 3.4 1.5 0.4
East Tennessee St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.1 6.8 9.2 10.7 11.1 11.9 11.2 9.6 7.7 5.3 3.1 1.4 0.4
UNC Greensboro 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.8 5.9 8.0 9.9 11.3 11.9 11.6 10.2 8.9 6.4 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.2
Mercer 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.8 5.6 8.0 9.9 11.0 11.6 11.2 10.2 8.7 6.6 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1
Western Carolina 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.4 7.8 9.8 11.0 11.5 11.3 10.3 8.8 6.9 5.2 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
The Citadel 5 - 13 1.7 5.4 9.7 13.0 14.3 13.6 12.1 9.9 7.2 5.1 3.5 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
VMI 2 - 16 17.6 23.2 20.3 14.9 10.0 6.2 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Samford 23.8% 16.2 6.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 20.6% 13.8 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wofford 18.7% 12.3 4.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Furman 16.6% 10.8 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
East Tennessee St. 15.5% 9.8 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 12.8% 8.0 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mercer 8.8% 5.4 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 6.2% 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.5% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Samford 18.0% 17.9% 0.1% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.7 5.1 4.3 2.6 1.0 82.0 0.1%
Chattanooga 16.3% 16.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 4.1 4.1 2.9 1.5 83.7 0.1%
Wofford 15.0% 15.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 3.9 3.8 2.8 1.4 85.0 0.1%
Furman 13.4% 13.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.3 3.5 2.5 1.3 86.6 0.1%
East Tennessee St. 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 3.2 2.6 1.6 87.3 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 10.8% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 2.6 2.7 2.4 1.3 89.2 0.0%
Mercer 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.7 92.4 0.0%
Western Carolina 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 94.2 0.0%
The Citadel 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 99.2 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Samford 18.0% 0.5% 17.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 16.3% 0.7% 15.9% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 15.0% 0.7% 14.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 13.4% 0.7% 13.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 12.7% 0.7% 12.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 10.8% 0.7% 10.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 7.6% 0.9% 7.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 5.8% 0.9% 5.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 97.3% 1.0 2.7 97.0 0.3
2nd Round 12.3% 0.1 87.7 12.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0