The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.0#351
Expected Predictive Rating-20.0#361
Pace63.8#303
Improvement-2.1#280

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#350
First Shot-10.1#360
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#65
Layup/Dunks-3.4#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#222
Freethrows-4.6#363
Improvement-0.6#220

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#316
First Shot-3.3#279
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#306
Layups/Dunks-2.2#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#140
Freethrows-0.5#224
Improvement-1.5#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 75.4% 48.8% 76.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 4.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 13
Quad 43 - 104 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 200   @ Boston College L 60-69 11%     0 - 1 -8.3 -11.5 +2.9
  Nov 11, 2024 348   Stetson W 74-52 57%     1 - 1 +7.2 -5.8 +13.9
  Nov 17, 2024 322   N.C. A&T L 73-82 46%     1 - 2 -21.0 -6.4 -14.6
  Nov 20, 2024 124   College of Charleston L 61-76 12%     1 - 3 -15.3 -8.9 -7.1
  Dec 12, 2024 250   Campbell L 58-86 30%     1 - 4 -35.7 -11.4 -26.8
  Dec 16, 2024 335   @ Central Arkansas L 71-73 34%     1 - 5 -10.9 -6.6 -4.3
  Dec 18, 2024 51   @ Vanderbilt L 53-105 2%     1 - 6 -38.9 -10.7 -31.7
  Jan 01, 2025 114   @ Samford L 56-86 5%     1 - 7 0 - 1 -24.5 -12.3 -14.5
  Jan 04, 2025 157   Chattanooga L 68-81 16%     1 - 8 0 - 2 -15.2 -4.8 -11.3
  Jan 08, 2025 152   Furman L 63-67 OT 15%     1 - 9 0 - 3 -5.8 -13.6 +8.0
  Jan 11, 2025 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 52-70 7%     1 - 10 0 - 4 -14.3 -12.2 -4.5
  Jan 15, 2025 127   @ UNC Greensboro L 57-70 6%     1 - 11 0 - 5 -8.4 -6.0 -4.2
  Jan 18, 2025 329   VMI L 70-75 50%     1 - 12 0 - 6 -18.0 -5.0 -13.3
  Jan 22, 2025 131   @ Wofford L 59-76 5%    
  Jan 25, 2025 341   Western Carolina W 69-68 56%    
  Jan 29, 2025 233   @ Mercer L 64-75 13%    
  Feb 01, 2025 114   Samford L 67-80 11%    
  Feb 05, 2025 127   UNC Greensboro L 59-71 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 329   @ VMI L 66-71 30%    
  Feb 12, 2025 131   Wofford L 61-73 14%    
  Feb 15, 2025 341   @ Western Carolina L 66-70 34%    
  Feb 19, 2025 233   Mercer L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 157   @ Chattanooga L 63-79 7%    
  Feb 26, 2025 152   @ Furman L 58-74 6%    
  Mar 01, 2025 148   East Tennessee St. L 62-73 15%    
Projected Record 3 - 22 2 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 2.2 5.2 3.9 1.1 0.2 12.5 8th
9th 6.2 11.9 6.1 1.0 0.1 25.3 9th
10th 8.8 22.8 21.0 6.3 0.6 0.0 59.6 10th
Total 8.8 22.8 27.2 20.5 12.1 5.9 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.6% 0.6
6-12 2.1% 2.1
5-13 5.9% 5.9
4-14 12.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.1
3-15 20.5% 20.5
2-16 27.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 27.2
1-17 22.8% 22.8
0-18 8.8% 8.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.7%