The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#320
Expected Predictive Rating-12.5#321
Pace64.3#318
Improvement-1.0#279

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#331
First Shot-5.7#326
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#189
Layup/Dunks-1.0#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#249
Freethrows-2.6#308
Improvement+0.6#95

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#273
First Shot-2.5#265
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#219
Layups/Dunks-5.4#340
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.9#10
Freethrows-2.5#305
Improvement-1.6#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 6.4% 10.6% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 13.4% 17.9% 9.5%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 27.9% 22.0% 33.1%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 46.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 47 - 88 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 138   @ Boston College L 60-69 11%     0 - 1 -4.4 -8.6 +3.9
  Nov 11, 2024 333   Stetson W 74-52 67%     1 - 1 +8.7 -4.2 +13.8
  Nov 17, 2024 289   N.C. A&T L 73-82 52%     1 - 2 -18.3 -5.1 -13.2
  Nov 20, 2024 111   College of Charleston L 61-76 18%     1 - 3 -14.2 -9.8 -5.1
  Dec 12, 2024 256   Campbell L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 16, 2024 342   @ Central Arkansas W 69-68 51%    
  Dec 18, 2024 75   @ Vanderbilt L 62-81 3%    
  Jan 01, 2025 127   @ Samford L 68-82 10%    
  Jan 04, 2025 168   Chattanooga L 67-72 31%    
  Jan 08, 2025 132   Furman L 66-74 24%    
  Jan 11, 2025 186   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-74 17%    
  Jan 15, 2025 162   @ UNC Greensboro L 59-71 15%    
  Jan 18, 2025 344   VMI W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 22, 2025 200   @ Wofford L 61-71 20%    
  Jan 25, 2025 257   Western Carolina L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 29, 2025 248   @ Mercer L 65-72 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 127   Samford L 71-79 25%    
  Feb 05, 2025 162   UNC Greensboro L 62-68 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 344   @ VMI W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 12, 2025 200   Wofford L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 257   @ Western Carolina L 62-69 29%    
  Feb 19, 2025 248   Mercer L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 168   @ Chattanooga L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 26, 2025 132   @ Furman L 63-77 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 186   East Tennessee St. L 66-71 36%    
Projected Record 7 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 2.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 2.5 1.3 0.1 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.0 1.8 0.2 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.8 2.5 0.3 12.2 7th
8th 0.4 2.7 6.1 7.2 3.0 0.4 19.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.2 6.7 9.5 6.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 28.2 9th
10th 1.0 3.6 5.9 4.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 18.2 10th
Total 1.0 3.9 8.1 11.6 14.8 14.4 13.7 10.3 8.7 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-4 69.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 36.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1
12-6 8.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.1
14-4 0.2% 19.7% 19.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.5% 5.9% 5.9% 15.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 1.0% 5.5% 5.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-7 2.3% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.2
10-8 3.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.6 0.1 0.1 3.7
9-9 5.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.2
8-10 8.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.6
7-11 10.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.2
6-12 13.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.7
5-13 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
4-14 14.8% 14.8
3-15 11.6% 11.6
2-16 8.1% 8.1
1-17 3.9% 3.9
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%