The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.3#358
Expected Predictive Rating-22.5#361
Pace63.1#312
Improvement-2.3#287

Offense
Total Offense-8.3#353
First Shot-10.3#361
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#64
Layup/Dunks-3.5#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#220
Freethrows-4.6#363
Improvement-0.3#198

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#338
First Shot-4.2#310
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#313
Layups/Dunks-2.5#279
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#152
Freethrows-0.7#241
Improvement-2.0#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 2.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 90 - 14
Quad 41 - 111 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 174   @ Boston College L 60-69 7%     0 - 1 -7.1 -10.0 +2.6
  Nov 11, 2024 349   Stetson W 74-52 54%     1 - 1 +6.6 -5.8 +13.2
  Nov 17, 2024 316   N.C. A&T L 73-82 40%     1 - 2 -20.7 -4.6 -16.1
  Nov 20, 2024 143   College of Charleston L 61-76 12%     1 - 3 -16.5 -9.6 -7.6
  Dec 12, 2024 183   Campbell L 58-86 16%     1 - 4 -31.8 -9.0 -25.3
  Dec 16, 2024 344   @ Central Arkansas L 71-73 33%     1 - 5 -11.7 -7.5 -4.2
  Dec 18, 2024 53   @ Vanderbilt L 53-105 1%     1 - 6 -38.8 -11.3 -31.1
  Jan 01, 2025 113   @ Samford L 56-86 4%     1 - 7 0 - 1 -24.5 -10.5 -16.3
  Jan 04, 2025 119   Chattanooga L 68-81 9%     1 - 8 0 - 2 -12.8 -3.7 -10.1
  Jan 08, 2025 159   Furman L 63-67 OT 13%     1 - 9 0 - 3 -6.4 -14.6 +8.4
  Jan 11, 2025 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 52-70 6%     1 - 10 0 - 4 -14.7 -11.7 -5.5
  Jan 15, 2025 154   @ UNC Greensboro L 57-70 6%     1 - 11 0 - 5 -9.9 -5.7 -6.0
  Jan 18, 2025 309   VMI L 70-75 38%     1 - 12 0 - 6 -16.0 -2.7 -13.6
  Jan 22, 2025 142   @ Wofford L 68-79 6%     1 - 13 0 - 7 -7.4 +3.2 -11.9
  Jan 25, 2025 333   Western Carolina L 78-80 OT 46%     1 - 14 0 - 8 -15.3 -3.8 -11.4
  Jan 29, 2025 256   @ Mercer L 46-80 14%     1 - 15 0 - 9 -36.7 -26.4 -10.7
  Feb 01, 2025 113   Samford L 58-83 9%     1 - 16 0 - 10 -24.6 -12.1 -13.9
  Feb 05, 2025 154   UNC Greensboro L 61-76 13%     1 - 17 0 - 11 -17.0 -2.1 -17.3
  Feb 08, 2025 309   @ VMI L 70-82 21%     1 - 18 0 - 12 -18.0 -3.5 -14.5
  Feb 12, 2025 142   Wofford L 71-74 OT 12%     1 - 19 0 - 13 -4.5 +1.2 -5.9
  Feb 15, 2025 333   @ Western Carolina L 73-76 28%     1 - 20 0 - 14 -11.2 -1.3 -10.0
  Feb 19, 2025 256   Mercer L 52-62 27%     1 - 21 0 - 15 -17.8 -21.6 +3.4
  Feb 22, 2025 119   @ Chattanooga L 62-82 3%    
  Feb 26, 2025 159   @ Furman L 59-76 5%    
  Mar 01, 2025 148   East Tennessee St. L 60-72 13%    
Projected Record 1 - 24 0 - 18




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 80.2 18.4 1.4 0.0 100.0 10th
Total 80.2 18.4 1.4 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 18.4% 18.4
0-18 80.2% 80.2
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 59.8%