The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.9#355
Expected Predictive Rating-17.8#359
Pace64.3#298
Improvement-5.6#359

Offense
Total Offense-7.3#349
First Shot-8.6#355
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#108
Layup/Dunks-2.3#273
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#240
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#181
Freethrows-5.1#363
Improvement-0.8#242

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#338
First Shot-5.5#341
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#192
Layups/Dunks-3.7#314
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#119
Freethrows-1.6#294
Improvement-4.9#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.6% 7.5% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 54.1% 27.1% 55.2%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 44 - 95 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 170   @ Boston College L 60-69 8%     0 - 1 -6.6 -10.3 +3.5
  Nov 11, 2024 347   Stetson W 74-52 58%     1 - 1 +7.1 -4.7 +12.6
  Nov 17, 2024 324   N.C. A&T L 73-82 48%     1 - 2 -21.2 -6.5 -14.7
  Nov 20, 2024 120   College of Charleston L 61-76 12%     1 - 3 -15.3 -9.3 -6.7
  Dec 12, 2024 297   Campbell L 58-86 40%     1 - 4 -38.2 -13.1 -27.7
  Dec 16, 2024 340   @ Central Arkansas L 71-73 33%     1 - 5 -10.3 -5.8 -4.5
  Dec 18, 2024 49   @ Vanderbilt L 53-105 2%     1 - 6 -38.6 -11.1 -31.1
  Jan 01, 2025 115   @ Samford L 68-87 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 171   Chattanooga L 65-74 19%    
  Jan 08, 2025 116   Furman L 60-73 12%    
  Jan 11, 2025 142   @ East Tennessee St. L 60-77 6%    
  Jan 15, 2025 158   @ UNC Greensboro L 57-73 7%    
  Jan 18, 2025 343   VMI W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 22, 2025 152   @ Wofford L 60-76 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 313   Western Carolina L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 29, 2025 238   @ Mercer L 66-78 15%    
  Feb 01, 2025 115   Samford L 71-84 12%    
  Feb 05, 2025 158   UNC Greensboro L 60-70 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 343   @ VMI L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 12, 2025 152   Wofford L 63-73 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 313   @ Western Carolina L 66-73 26%    
  Feb 19, 2025 238   Mercer L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 171   @ Chattanooga L 62-77 9%    
  Feb 26, 2025 116   @ Furman L 57-76 5%    
  Mar 01, 2025 142   East Tennessee St. L 63-74 17%    
Projected Record 4 - 21 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.4 6.3 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 17.4 8th
9th 0.5 4.8 10.6 9.9 4.5 1.1 0.1 31.4 9th
10th 4.5 12.2 13.6 7.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 41.0 10th
Total 4.5 12.7 18.4 19.6 16.8 12.0 7.7 4.4 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 14.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 7.9% 7.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.4% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
8-10 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
7-11 4.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.4
6-12 7.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.7
5-13 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.0
4-14 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.8
3-15 19.6% 19.6
2-16 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.4
1-17 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.7
0-18 4.5% 4.5
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%