Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#338
Expected Predictive Rating-15.5#352
Pace67.9#205
Improvement+0.8#148

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#338
First Shot-4.5#298
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#297
Layup/Dunks-6.2#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#59
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows-2.1#301
Improvement+1.5#94

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#311
First Shot-5.6#336
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#114
Layups/Dunks+3.9#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.4#363
Freethrows+1.4#83
Improvement-0.7#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.3% 18.1% 41.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Home) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 61 - 13
Quad 45 - 116 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 34   @ BYU L 50-88 1%     0 - 1 -22.2 -15.9 -7.0
  Nov 07, 2024 84   @ Utah L 63-98 4%     0 - 2 -25.3 -10.2 -11.7
  Nov 16, 2024 349   @ Western Illinois L 61-63 45%     0 - 3 -12.1 -8.1 -4.3
  Nov 21, 2024 261   Southeast Missouri St. L 73-77 OT 38%     0 - 4 -12.3 -10.1 -1.8
  Nov 24, 2024 176   UNC Asheville W 92-83 2OT 22%     1 - 4 +5.9 +1.1 +3.4
  Nov 30, 2024 104   @ Georgia Tech L 68-87 6%     1 - 5 -12.5 +5.5 -19.5
  Dec 04, 2024 227   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 57-63 16%     1 - 6 -7.0 -14.6 +7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 78-84 65%     1 - 7 -21.4 -5.4 -16.0
  Dec 14, 2024 50   @ Arkansas L 57-82 2%     1 - 8 -11.6 -3.4 -10.2
  Dec 16, 2024 351   The Citadel W 73-71 65%     2 - 8 -13.4 -7.8 -5.7
  Dec 22, 2024 42   @ Oklahoma L 66-89 2%     2 - 9 -8.7 -3.8 -4.0
  Jan 02, 2025 247   Eastern Kentucky L 83-89 2OT 35%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -13.5 -10.1 -2.4
  Jan 04, 2025 359   Bellarmine W 71-65 70%     3 - 10 1 - 1 -10.7 -10.3 -0.2
  Jan 09, 2025 335   @ Stetson L 65-75 39%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -18.7 -5.9 -14.1
  Jan 11, 2025 179   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 71-77 11%     3 - 12 1 - 3 -4.0 +0.5 -4.7
  Jan 16, 2025 253   @ North Florida L 80-92 20%     3 - 13 1 - 4 -14.6 +0.4 -15.0
  Jan 18, 2025 167   @ Jacksonville L 62-72 10%     3 - 14 1 - 5 -7.6 -0.1 -8.5
  Jan 23, 2025 288   Austin Peay L 71-73 44%     3 - 15 1 - 6 -11.8 -2.6 -9.3
  Jan 25, 2025 97   Lipscomb L 55-68 10%     3 - 16 1 - 7 -10.3 -11.7 +0.2
  Jan 29, 2025 337   West Georgia W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 157   @ North Alabama L 66-81 8%    
  Feb 05, 2025 230   Queens L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 288   @ Austin Peay L 64-71 25%    
  Feb 13, 2025 167   Jacksonville L 64-73 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 253   North Florida L 79-83 39%    
  Feb 18, 2025 230   @ Queens L 70-80 16%    
  Feb 20, 2025 337   @ West Georgia L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 24, 2025 157   North Alabama L 69-78 20%    
  Feb 26, 2025 97   @ Lipscomb L 61-80 3%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 2.7 10.4 11.0 2.9 0.1 27.1 10th
11th 1.9 11.1 20.6 13.3 3.3 0.2 50.4 11th
12th 3.2 5.7 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.5 12th
Total 5.0 16.8 26.4 24.3 16.7 7.7 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.6% 0.6
7-11 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
6-12 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.7
5-13 16.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.7
4-14 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.3
3-15 26.4% 26.4
2-16 16.8% 16.8
1-17 5.0% 5.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.0%