IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.4	#341
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.8	#82
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.7	#333

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.6	#347

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.0%	4.8%	0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.2	15.6

.500 or above	6.4%	34.0%	6.2%
.500 or above in Conference	17.6%	43.5%	17.5%
Conference Champion	0.9%	4.7%	0.8%
Last Place in Conference	29.7%	11.7%	29.9%

First Four	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%
First Round	0.7%	4.4%	0.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 11	8 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2024	32	@ BYU	L	63-89	1%
Nov 07, 2024	77	@ Utah	L	64-86	2%
Nov 16, 2024	294	@ Western Illinois	L	64-72	25%
Nov 21, 2024	327	Southeast Missouri St.	W	74-73	54%
Nov 24, 2024	186	UNC Asheville	L	71-78	26%
Nov 30, 2024	80	@ Georgia Tech	L	63-85	3%
Dec 04, 2024	267	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	71-80	21%
Dec 07, 2024	358	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	L	78-79	49%
Dec 14, 2024	15	@ Arkansas	L	63-91	1%
Dec 16, 2024	325	The Citadel	W	71-70	54%
Dec 22, 2024	55	@ Oklahoma	L	60-84	2%
Jan 02, 2025	255	Eastern Kentucky	L	73-77	38%
Jan 04, 2025	299	Bellarmine	L	70-71	46%
Jan 09, 2025	290	@ Stetson	L	69-77	26%
Jan 11, 2025	206	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	63-75	15%
Jan 16, 2025	254	@ North Florida	L	69-79	20%
Jan 18, 2025	222	@ Jacksonville	L	65-76	17%
Jan 23, 2025	281	Austin Peay	L	69-72	42%
Jan 25, 2025	158	Lipscomb	L	73-82	24%
Jan 29, 2025	351	West Georgia	W	75-71	64%
Feb 01, 2025	231	@ North Alabama	L	69-80	18%
Feb 05, 2025	289	Queens	L	79-81	44%
Feb 08, 2025	281	@ Austin Peay	L	66-75	24%
Feb 13, 2025	222	Jacksonville	L	68-73	33%
Feb 15, 2025	254	North Florida	L	72-76	38%
Feb 18, 2025	289	@ Queens	L	76-84	26%
Feb 20, 2025	351	@ West Georgia	L	72-74	45%
Feb 24, 2025	231	North Alabama	L	72-77	34%
Feb 26, 2025	158	@ Lipscomb	L	70-85	12%
Projected Record						8 - 21	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0				1.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	0.8	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0					2.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	1.4	1.3	0.4	0.0							3.3	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.6	1.9	0.6	0.0								4.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.7	2.9	1.0	0.1									5.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.6	3.3	1.5	0.2	0.0									6.9	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.0	4.4	2.6	0.3											9.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	2.4	5.1	3.3	0.6	0.0											11.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.7	3.3	5.9	4.0	0.9	0.0												14.8	10th
11th		0.2	1.8	5.1	6.6	4.0	0.9	0.0													18.7	11th
12th	1.7	4.7	6.0	5.3	2.4	0.5	0.0														20.7	12th

Total	1.7	4.8	7.8	11.2	12.6	13.1	12.2	10.5	8.4	6.6	4.6	2.8	1.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	96.9%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	77.6%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	47.1%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	21.3%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	5.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.9%	0.9		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																							0.0
17-1	0.0%		50.0%	50.0%		13.9														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
16-2	0.1%		24.8%	24.8%		14.7															0.0	0.0		0.1
15-3	0.2%		30.5%	30.5%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
14-4	0.6%		14.9%	14.9%		15.0															0.0	0.1	0.0	0.5
13-5	1.0%		10.9%	10.9%		15.3															0.0	0.1	0.0	0.9
12-6	1.8%		6.4%	6.4%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	1.6
11-7	2.8%		4.6%	4.6%		15.8																0.0	0.1	2.7
10-8	4.6%		3.3%	3.3%		15.9																0.0	0.1	4.5
9-9	6.6%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																0.0	0.1	6.4
8-10	8.4%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	8.4
7-11	10.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.4
6-12	12.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.2
5-13	13.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.1
4-14	12.6%																							12.6
3-15	11.2%																							11.2
2-16	7.8%																							7.8
1-17	4.8%																							4.8
0-18	1.7%																							1.7

Total	100%		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	15.6														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	99.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.6%