Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#101
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#134
Pace66.8#215
Improvement-1.1#245

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#110
First Shot+1.7#114
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#155
Layup/Dunks+1.5#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#144
Freethrows-1.7#279
Improvement+1.0#134

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#103
First Shot+1.4#131
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#111
Layups/Dunks+1.8#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#130
Freethrows+3.5#9
Improvement-2.1#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.3% 45.3% 36.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 82.9% 97.9% 32.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round43.3% 45.3% 36.7%
Second Round4.3% 4.5% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Away) - 77.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 37 - 8
Quad 414 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 132   @ Duquesne W 77-72 51%     1 - 0 +9.2 +2.7 +6.1
  Nov 06, 2024 35   @ Arkansas L 60-76 15%     1 - 1 -0.7 -6.4 +6.6
  Nov 09, 2024 142   Wofford W 78-69 71%     2 - 1 +7.5 +13.2 -4.4
  Nov 12, 2024 140   Belmont L 79-80 71%     2 - 2 -2.4 +1.9 -4.3
  Nov 17, 2024 135   @ Western Kentucky L 61-66 52%     2 - 3 -1.1 -12.0 +11.2
  Nov 19, 2024 17   @ Kentucky L 68-97 9%     2 - 4 -9.5 -0.8 -8.2
  Nov 24, 2024 271   Jackson St. W 77-53 88%     3 - 4 +15.7 +2.2 +13.8
  Nov 30, 2024 359   @ Alabama A&M W 82-44 93%     4 - 4 +25.9 +1.4 +22.8
  Dec 03, 2024 119   @ Chattanooga W 80-62 47%     5 - 4 +23.3 +9.4 +14.6
  Dec 05, 2024 217   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-60 83%     6 - 4 +12.3 +4.6 +7.9
  Dec 19, 2024 122   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-67 49%     6 - 5 +2.8 -0.6 +3.2
  Jan 02, 2025 193   @ Jacksonville W 70-65 64%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +5.7 +9.4 -3.1
  Jan 04, 2025 266   @ North Florida W 96-64 76%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +29.0 +10.4 +16.2
  Jan 09, 2025 231   Queens L 73-75 84%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -8.4 +3.1 -11.7
  Jan 11, 2025 348   West Georgia W 86-67 96%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +3.7 +9.3 -4.8
  Jan 16, 2025 340   @ Bellarmine W 87-53 89%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +24.9 +10.9 +16.1
  Jan 18, 2025 276   Austin Peay W 88-60 89%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +19.0 +16.2 +4.3
  Jan 23, 2025 134   @ North Alabama L 64-74 52%     11 - 7 5 - 2 -6.1 +1.3 -9.0
  Jan 25, 2025 344   @ Central Arkansas W 68-55 90%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +3.3 -3.3 +7.7
  Jan 30, 2025 191   Eastern Kentucky L 71-80 80%     12 - 8 6 - 3 -13.4 -5.7 -7.8
  Feb 01, 2025 340   Bellarmine W 87-80 95%     13 - 8 7 - 3 -7.2 +6.3 -13.2
  Feb 05, 2025 348   @ West Georgia W 76-67 91%     14 - 8 8 - 3 -1.2 -0.2 -0.8
  Feb 08, 2025 231   @ Queens W 94-81 71%     15 - 8 9 - 3 +11.7 +19.0 -7.3
  Feb 13, 2025 349   Stetson W 93-60 96%     16 - 8 10 - 3 +17.6 +14.4 +4.6
  Feb 15, 2025 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 82-68 78%     17 - 8 11 - 3 +10.4 +9.5 +1.5
  Feb 18, 2025 191   @ Eastern Kentucky L 57-66 64%     17 - 9 11 - 4 -8.3 -15.4 +6.8
  Feb 20, 2025 134   North Alabama W 75-63 71%     18 - 9 12 - 4 +10.8 +9.0 +3.3
  Feb 24, 2025 276   @ Austin Peay W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 26, 2025 344   Central Arkansas W 80-61 97%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 8.3 74.6 82.9 1st
2nd 0.2 16.4 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 0.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.8 24.7 74.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 74.6    24.4 50.2
13-5 33.7% 8.3    0.2 2.2 4.8 1.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 82.9% 82.9 24.6 52.4 4.8 1.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 74.6% 45.6% 45.6% 12.9 0.0 9.4 19.4 5.1 0.1 40.5
13-5 24.7% 36.8% 36.8% 13.5 0.7 4.0 4.0 0.4 15.6
12-6 0.8% 25.6% 25.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 43.3% 43.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 10.1 23.5 9.2 0.5 56.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 34.0% 100.0% 12.9 0.1 27.6 57.1 14.8 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 15.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 17.0%
Lose Out 0.3%