Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#107
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#135
Pace69.4#166
Improvement+2.2#49

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#132
First Shot+1.8#120
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#203
Layup/Dunks+3.1#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
Freethrows-2.3#306
Improvement-0.1#176

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#101
First Shot+1.9#116
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#110
Layups/Dunks+1.8#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#156
Freethrows+3.7#11
Improvement+2.3#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.4% 44.6% 36.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.9% 98.9%
Conference Champion 62.1% 72.3% 45.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round41.4% 44.6% 36.3%
Second Round5.9% 7.0% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.5% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Away) - 62.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 35 - 35 - 7
Quad 417 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 200   @ Duquesne W 77-72 61%     1 - 0 +6.3 +1.9 +4.1
  Nov 06, 2024 29   @ Arkansas L 60-76 14%     1 - 1 -0.2 -8.1 +8.8
  Nov 09, 2024 155   Wofford W 78-69 76%     2 - 1 +6.0 +12.0 -4.8
  Nov 12, 2024 133   Belmont L 79-80 70%     2 - 2 -2.3 +3.2 -5.6
  Nov 17, 2024 105   @ Western Kentucky L 61-66 38%     2 - 3 +2.4 -9.9 +12.7
  Nov 19, 2024 9   @ Kentucky L 68-97 8%     2 - 4 -8.7 +1.1 -9.3
  Nov 24, 2024 303   Jackson St. W 77-53 91%     3 - 4 +13.3 +2.5 +11.1
  Nov 30, 2024 361   @ Alabama A&M W 82-44 93%     4 - 4 +25.9 +0.2 +24.0
  Dec 03, 2024 183   @ Chattanooga W 80-62 59%     5 - 4 +19.9 +9.6 +11.2
  Dec 05, 2024 289   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-60 90%     6 - 4 +8.2 +2.9 +5.5
  Dec 19, 2024 131   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-67 48%     6 - 5 +2.7 -0.1 +2.7
  Jan 02, 2025 205   @ Jacksonville W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 04, 2025 188   @ North Florida W 81-79 60%    
  Jan 09, 2025 270   Queens W 82-69 89%    
  Jan 11, 2025 341   West Georgia W 81-62 96%    
  Jan 16, 2025 343   @ Bellarmine W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 18, 2025 273   Austin Peay W 72-59 89%    
  Jan 23, 2025 182   @ North Alabama W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 339   @ Central Arkansas W 77-64 87%    
  Jan 30, 2025 220   Eastern Kentucky W 80-70 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 343   Bellarmine W 83-64 96%    
  Feb 05, 2025 341   @ West Georgia W 78-65 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 270   @ Queens W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 13, 2025 344   Stetson W 83-64 96%    
  Feb 15, 2025 192   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 18, 2025 220   @ Eastern Kentucky W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 20, 2025 182   North Alabama W 76-68 78%    
  Feb 24, 2025 273   @ Austin Peay W 69-62 74%    
  Feb 26, 2025 339   Central Arkansas W 80-61 95%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.4 9.1 16.7 17.8 11.9 4.1 62.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.2 7.1 3.5 0.7 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.4 3.4 0.9 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 4.5 7.7 12.5 17.2 20.3 18.5 11.9 4.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.1    4.1
17-1 99.7% 11.9    11.6 0.3
16-2 96.1% 17.8    15.7 2.1 0.0
15-3 82.2% 16.7    11.6 4.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 53.3% 9.1    3.9 4.0 1.1 0.1
13-5 18.8% 2.4    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 62.1% 62.1 47.4 12.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.1% 64.5% 64.4% 0.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 1.5 0.1%
17-1 11.9% 56.3% 56.3% 12.3 0.3 4.0 2.3 0.1 5.2
16-2 18.5% 51.5% 51.5% 12.9 0.0 2.7 5.3 1.4 0.0 9.0
15-3 20.3% 44.1% 44.1% 13.3 1.1 4.7 2.9 0.2 11.3
14-4 17.2% 37.7% 37.7% 13.7 0.2 2.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.7
13-5 12.5% 30.9% 30.9% 14.0 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.9 0.0 8.6
12-6 7.7% 25.5% 25.5% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 5.7
11-7 4.5% 20.8% 20.8% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.5
10-8 2.0% 14.7% 14.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.7
9-9 1.0% 10.9% 10.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
8-10 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.4% 41.4% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 9.3 15.8 11.0 3.3 0.3 58.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 11.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 2.4 4.2 44.9 45.2 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 0.3% 11.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%