Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#193
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#179
Pace68.8#165
Improvement-2.4#291

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#269
First Shot-5.4#320
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#72
Layup/Dunks-2.7#282
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#146
Freethrows-2.8#329
Improvement-0.6#211

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#131
First Shot+0.5#164
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#91
Layups/Dunks-2.0#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#78
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement-1.8#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 8.3% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 97.8% 100.0% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round7.4% 8.3% 6.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 35 - 46 - 10
Quad 411 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 4   @ Florida L 60-81 2%     0 - 1 +3.8 +0.6 +2.3
  Nov 11, 2024 159   @ Furman L 69-78 33%     0 - 2 -6.3 -6.4 +0.5
  Nov 14, 2024 210   South Carolina St. W 71-62 62%     1 - 2 +3.9 -3.3 +7.0
  Nov 20, 2024 128   @ Virginia Tech W 74-64 28%     2 - 2 +14.3 +3.9 +10.5
  Nov 25, 2024 256   Mercer L 89-90 OT 63%     2 - 3 -6.3 +4.7 -10.8
  Nov 26, 2024 228   Siena W 75-64 57%     3 - 3 +7.4 +2.3 +5.3
  Nov 30, 2024 44   @ Georgia L 56-102 8%     3 - 4 -31.8 -8.6 -23.2
  Dec 10, 2024 105   @ Florida Atlantic L 63-85 21%     3 - 5 -15.4 -13.7 +0.0
  Dec 14, 2024 148   East Tennessee St. W 60-52 50%     4 - 5 +6.2 -12.2 +18.5
  Dec 21, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 66-86 14%     4 - 6 -10.4 -5.8 -4.0
  Jan 02, 2025 101   Lipscomb L 65-70 36%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -3.1 +1.9 -5.7
  Jan 04, 2025 276   Austin Peay W 68-44 75%     5 - 7 1 - 1 +15.0 -7.0 +22.6
  Jan 09, 2025 340   @ Bellarmine W 74-59 75%     6 - 7 2 - 1 +5.9 +3.9 +4.3
  Jan 11, 2025 191   @ Eastern Kentucky W 82-75 40%     7 - 7 3 - 1 +7.7 +5.4 +2.2
  Jan 16, 2025 134   North Alabama W 64-60 47%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +2.8 -11.0 +13.8
  Jan 18, 2025 344   Central Arkansas W 72-62 88%     9 - 7 5 - 1 -4.8 -0.1 -3.6
  Jan 23, 2025 348   @ West Georgia W 79-62 79%     10 - 7 6 - 1 +6.8 +4.3 +3.2
  Jan 25, 2025 231   @ Queens W 87-77 48%     11 - 7 7 - 1 +8.7 +6.0 +2.0
  Jan 29, 2025 180   Florida Gulf Coast L 79-83 57%     11 - 8 7 - 2 -7.6 +6.3 -14.1
  Feb 01, 2025 266   North Florida L 78-81 73%     11 - 9 7 - 3 -11.1 -8.4 -2.5
  Feb 06, 2025 349   @ Stetson W 74-65 79%     12 - 9 8 - 3 -1.3 -6.0 +4.7
  Feb 08, 2025 340   Bellarmine W 73-64 87%     13 - 9 9 - 3 -5.2 -3.9 -0.4
  Feb 13, 2025 344   @ Central Arkansas W 77-62 77%     14 - 9 10 - 3 +5.3 +4.1 +2.0
  Feb 15, 2025 134   @ North Alabama L 79-92 29%     14 - 10 10 - 4 -9.1 +9.4 -19.0
  Feb 18, 2025 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 56-72 37%     14 - 11 10 - 5 -14.5 -8.8 -8.2
  Feb 20, 2025 266   @ North Florida L 73-77 54%     14 - 12 10 - 6 -7.0 -8.7 +1.9
  Feb 24, 2025 191   Eastern Kentucky W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 349   Stetson W 79-65 90%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.6 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 18.6 18.7 3rd
4th 3.1 36.1 39.3 4th
5th 1.0 31.5 32.5 5th
6th 3.2 5.7 8.9 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 4.2 40.4 55.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 55.4% 8.4% 8.4% 14.6 0.1 1.9 2.4 0.2 50.7
11-7 40.4% 6.6% 6.6% 15.2 0.2 1.9 0.6 37.7
10-8 4.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.1 0.1 4.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 14.8 0.1 2.1 4.4 0.9 92.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.7% 100.0% 14.6 2.8 40.6 52.3 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.5%
Lose Out 2.2%