Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#185
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#111
Pace65.4#291
Improvement+1.6#46

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#254
First Shot-5.9#328
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#37
Layup/Dunks-1.2#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#99
Freethrows-6.6#360
Improvement+1.2#45

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#132
First Shot+3.2#83
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#296
Layups/Dunks-7.2#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#34
Freethrows+2.3#66
Improvement+0.5#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 16.0% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 70.9% 79.5% 57.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 88.2% 80.0%
Conference Champion 18.4% 21.3% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
First Round13.9% 15.8% 10.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Neutral) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 18   @ Florida L 60-81 5%     0 - 1 -4.0 -4.5 -0.3
  Nov 11, 2024 132   @ Furman L 69-78 28%     0 - 2 -4.1 -5.3 +1.6
  Nov 14, 2024 319   South Carolina St. W 71-62 83%     1 - 2 -2.6 -7.6 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2024 118   @ Virginia Tech W 74-64 23%     2 - 2 +16.4 +5.9 +10.6
  Nov 25, 2024 248   Mercer W 70-67 62%    
  Nov 30, 2024 53   @ Georgia L 62-76 10%    
  Dec 10, 2024 66   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-81 12%    
  Dec 14, 2024 186   East Tennessee St. W 70-67 60%    
  Dec 21, 2024 69   @ Central Florida L 62-74 13%    
  Jan 02, 2025 151   Lipscomb W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 236   Austin Peay W 68-63 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 335   @ Bellarmine W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 196   @ Eastern Kentucky L 70-72 41%    
  Jan 16, 2025 182   North Alabama W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 342   Central Arkansas W 75-61 89%    
  Jan 23, 2025 353   @ West Georgia W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 300   @ Queens W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 29, 2025 213   Florida Gulf Coast W 65-61 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 177   North Florida W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 333   @ Stetson W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 335   Bellarmine W 72-60 85%    
  Feb 13, 2025 342   @ Central Arkansas W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 182   @ North Alabama L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 18, 2025 213   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 62-64 44%    
  Feb 20, 2025 177   @ North Florida L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 24, 2025 196   Eastern Kentucky W 73-69 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 333   Stetson W 75-63 85%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 4.6 5.5 4.3 1.6 0.4 18.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.9 5.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 6.0 4.4 1.0 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 6.0 3.9 0.7 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.9 0.8 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 4.1 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 4.1 6.5 9.3 11.5 13.7 13.5 12.8 10.7 7.0 4.5 1.6 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.4% 1.6    1.5 0.0
16-2 97.3% 4.3    3.5 0.8 0.0
15-3 78.5% 5.5    3.4 1.9 0.2
14-4 42.6% 4.6    1.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.3% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.4% 18.4 10.8 5.6 1.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 46.6% 46.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.6% 41.4% 41.4% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.9
16-2 4.5% 40.3% 40.3% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.0 2.7
15-3 7.0% 32.9% 32.9% 13.5 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 4.7
14-4 10.7% 22.7% 22.7% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 8.3
13-5 12.8% 18.6% 18.6% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.1 10.4
12-6 13.5% 14.4% 14.4% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 11.6
11-7 13.7% 9.3% 9.3% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 12.4
10-8 11.5% 6.0% 6.0% 15.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 10.8
9-9 9.3% 2.9% 2.9% 15.6 0.1 0.2 9.1
8-10 6.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.4
7-11 4.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.0
6-12 2.2% 2.2
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.1 1.0 3.1 4.5 4.0 1.4 85.9 0.0%