Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#185
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#139
Pace68.2#190
Improvement+1.1#138

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#265
First Shot-5.4#323
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#75
Layup/Dunks-2.6#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#144
Freethrows-2.8#331
Improvement-0.4#203

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#102
First Shot+1.3#133
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#87
Layups/Dunks-1.7#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#72
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement+1.5#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 11.1% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 93.6% 95.8% 85.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 97.8%
Conference Champion 14.5% 17.0% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round10.3% 11.0% 7.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Away) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 35 - 45 - 9
Quad 412 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 5   @ Florida L 60-81 2%     0 - 1 +2.2 -0.6 +1.9
  Nov 11, 2024 152   @ Furman L 69-78 33%     0 - 2 -5.6 -5.4 +0.2
  Nov 14, 2024 244   South Carolina St. W 71-62 72%     1 - 2 +1.9 -6.0 +7.7
  Nov 20, 2024 133   @ Virginia Tech W 74-64 30%     2 - 2 +14.4 +3.5 +11.0
  Nov 25, 2024 233   Mercer L 89-90 OT 62%     2 - 3 -5.1 +5.3 -10.3
  Nov 26, 2024 273   Siena W 75-64 69%     3 - 3 +4.8 +1.9 +3.1
  Nov 30, 2024 34   @ Georgia L 56-102 7%     3 - 4 -30.6 -6.7 -23.8
  Dec 10, 2024 107   @ Florida Atlantic L 63-85 25%     3 - 5 -16.0 -13.3 -1.1
  Dec 14, 2024 148   East Tennessee St. W 60-52 52%     4 - 5 +6.5 -12.8 +19.4
  Dec 21, 2024 75   @ Central Florida L 66-86 15%     4 - 6 -9.9 -4.7 -4.5
  Jan 02, 2025 93   Lipscomb L 65-70 33%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -1.6 +2.4 -4.6
  Jan 04, 2025 299   Austin Peay W 68-44 81%     5 - 7 1 - 1 +13.7 -5.8 +20.0
  Jan 09, 2025 353   @ Bellarmine W 74-59 82%     6 - 7 2 - 1 +4.2 +4.0 +2.5
  Jan 11, 2025 248   @ Eastern Kentucky W 82-75 54%     7 - 7 3 - 1 +4.8 +4.2 +0.4
  Jan 16, 2025 164   North Alabama W 64-60 55%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +1.6 -11.2 +12.8
  Jan 18, 2025 335   Central Arkansas W 72-62 88%     9 - 7 5 - 1 -4.1 +0.8 -3.8
  Jan 23, 2025 350   @ West Georgia W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 25, 2025 209   @ Queens L 72-73 44%    
  Jan 29, 2025 170   Florida Gulf Coast W 67-65 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 246   North Florida W 81-75 73%    
  Feb 06, 2025 348   @ Stetson W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 353   Bellarmine W 78-63 92%    
  Feb 13, 2025 335   @ Central Arkansas W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 164   @ North Alabama L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 18, 2025 170   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 65-68 37%    
  Feb 20, 2025 246   @ North Florida W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 24, 2025 248   Eastern Kentucky W 75-69 74%    
  Feb 26, 2025 348   Stetson W 79-65 90%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.9 4.2 1.0 14.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 7.4 12.7 5.7 0.9 27.7 2nd
3rd 0.8 5.8 10.8 3.8 0.2 21.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.0 8.9 3.6 0.2 18.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.9 2.8 0.3 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 5.9 12.4 18.5 22.5 19.8 11.8 5.0 1.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.2
16-2 82.7% 4.2    2.6 1.5 0.0
15-3 50.0% 5.9    2.0 3.3 0.6 0.0
14-4 15.3% 3.0    0.4 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 1.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 5.9 6.3 1.7 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.0% 32.7% 32.7% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.7
16-2 5.0% 19.5% 19.5% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 4.1
15-3 11.8% 16.3% 16.3% 13.8 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.2 9.9
14-4 19.8% 13.9% 13.9% 14.4 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.1 17.0
13-5 22.5% 10.7% 10.7% 14.6 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.1 20.0
12-6 18.5% 5.9% 5.9% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 17.4
11-7 12.4% 5.1% 5.1% 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 11.8
10-8 5.9% 2.9% 2.9% 15.6 0.1 0.1 5.8
9-9 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
8-10 0.5% 0.5
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.0 3.8 0.6 89.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.2 2.9 73.5 23.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%