Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#317
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#260
Pace64.2#316
Improvement-3.7#348

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#313
First Shot-3.1#255
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#313
Layup/Dunks+0.7#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
Freethrows-3.4#337
Improvement+0.4#146

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#307
First Shot-4.5#325
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#150
Layups/Dunks-2.5#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#255
Freethrows-1.1#265
Improvement-4.0#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.8% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 5.3% 15.4% 4.1%
.500 or above in Conference 27.7% 52.8% 24.7%
Conference Champion 0.9% 4.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 5.2% 15.7%
First Four1.1% 1.7% 1.0%
First Round1.0% 1.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Away) - 10.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 410 - 810 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 35 @Miami (FL) L 69-86 2%     0 - 1 -0.8 +1.2 -1.1
  Tue, Nov 11 101 @High Point L 64-85 6%     0 - 2 -12.7 -7.3 -5.8
  Sat, Nov 15 332 @VMI W 69-67 43%     1 - 2 -5.3 -6.0 +0.8
  Tue, Nov 18 88 @George Mason L 57-79 5%     1 - 3 -12.7 -7.4 -6.9
  Mon, Nov 24 269 Bethune-Cookman W 69-64 38%     2 - 3 -0.9 -1.1 +0.6
  Tue, Nov 25 138 Pacific L 53-68 16%     2 - 4 -13.3 -11.0 -4.6
  Tue, Dec 2 341 Florida A&M W 85-82 OT 70%     3 - 4 -11.5 +2.2 -13.8
  Sat, Dec 6 182 @Florida International L 65-88 16%     3 - 5 -21.6 -5.5 -16.6
  Sun, Dec 14 43 @Texas A&M L 75-112 2%     3 - 6 -22.2 +2.1 -21.1
  Wed, Dec 17 341 @Florida A&M L 65-72 48%     3 - 7 -15.5 -5.5 -10.5
  Mon, Dec 22 113 @Florida St. L 63-87 8%     3 - 8 -17.5 -2.0 -17.4
  Thu, Jan 1 144 @Lipscomb L 65-78 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 195 @Austin Peay L 63-73 18%    
  Thu, Jan 8 211 Queens L 75-78 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 316 West Georgia W 72-69 61%    
  Thu, Jan 15 282 @Central Arkansas L 67-73 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 244 @North Alabama L 65-72 25%    
  Thu, Jan 22 267 Bellarmine L 72-73 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 259 Eastern Kentucky L 71-72 47%    
  Thu, Jan 29 144 Lipscomb L 68-75 25%    
  Sat, Jan 31 186 Florida Gulf Coast L 71-75 34%    
  Thu, Feb 5 211 @Queens L 72-81 21%    
  Sat, Feb 7 316 @West Georgia L 69-72 39%    
  Thu, Feb 12 349 @Stetson W 70-69 51%    
  Sat, Feb 14 350 North Florida W 81-75 72%    
  Thu, Feb 19 186 @Florida Gulf Coast L 68-78 18%    
  Sat, Feb 21 195 Austin Peay L 66-70 36%    
  Thu, Feb 26 349 Stetson W 73-67 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 350 @North Florida W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.6 1.7 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 5.5 3.0 0.2 11.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 6.4 4.3 0.5 0.0 13.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.1 6.0 5.2 0.8 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.2 2.0 5.5 5.1 1.2 0.1 14.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.5 4.0 1.1 0.1 12.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.3 5.3 8.8 12.3 14.4 15.4 13.2 10.9 7.9 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 90.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 60.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 13.7% 13.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 8.8% 8.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.1% 8.6% 8.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
12-6 2.6% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.1 0.1 2.4
11-7 4.5% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.3
10-8 7.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 7.6
9-9 10.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 10.6
8-10 13.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.0
7-11 15.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.3
6-12 14.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.3
5-13 12.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.2
4-14 8.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.7
3-15 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.3
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.3 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%