Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 188
Expected Predictive Rating -3.1 215
Pace 77.8 14
Improvement -1.8 262

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #194 C C+ C C C+
Defense C #203 C D B+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 24 56% 217 +3.3 74
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 176 37% 186 -0.2 188
Three Pointers 34% 321 35% 136 -3.2 288
1st FG Attempt 1.02 168 +0.0 177
Second Chance 32.0% 141 1.05 141 0.34 121
Turnovers 17.0% 190
Freethrows 0.32 139 68% 319 0.22 196
Total Offense -1.0 194

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 264 57% 153 +1.8 113
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 341 43% 324 +1.8 55
Three Pointers 49% 12 33% 141 -3.7 325
1st FG Attempt 1.03 188 -0.1 179
Second Chance 35.3% 333 1.03 190 0.36 306
Turnovers 19.9% 34
Freethrows 0.31 203 72% 195 0.22 203
Total Defense -0.9 203

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 117 +0.5 268
Shot Type Accuracy -0.4 187 -0.2 176
Possession Length 14.5 5 17.6 236
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 31 0.17 192
Improvement -2.1 #298 +0.2 #177

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.6
.500 or above 13% 16% 4%
.500 or above in Conference 15% 18% 3%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 10% 4% 30%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round3% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 76.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 49 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 15 @Nebraska L 66 - 96 3% -21  2% 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -4 D+ A- F C- -2 F D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 57 @LSU L 81 - 98 9% -10  1% 0 - 2 C- -4 C+ +2 C- B B+ D+ -4 B F B
 Mon, Nov 24 222 James Madison L 72 - 80 66% +1  60% 0 - 3 D- -14 D -5 D D B D- -9 A+ F D
 Wed, Nov 26 249 Nebraska Omaha W 74 - 61 72% +8  94% 1 - 3 B- +5 F+ -8 D C- A- A+ +13 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 243 Florida Gulf Coast W 89 - 83 71% +6  86% 2 - 3 C -2 C+ +3 D+ B+ C- D+ -5 B- D- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 308 Jacksonville W 88 - 65 83% +18  95% 3 - 3 B +11 A- +10 A+ D C- C+ +2 B F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 41 @Miami (FL) L 81 - 98 6% -6  10% 3 - 4 C -1 B +7 B B C+ D -7 F+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 20 207 LIU Brooklyn W 86 - 79 65% +2  46% 4 - 4 C +1 C+ +2 A D+ D+ C -2 C- C+ A
 Sun, Dec 28 95 Liberty L 94 - 97 OT 34% +0  50% 4 - 5 0 - 1 C -1 B+ +8 C+ A+ C- D- -9 C F C
 Fri, Jan 2 167 New Mexico St. W 89 - 74 56% +11  86% 5 - 5 1 - 1 B+ +12 A- +9 B+ A+ D- C+ +2 F A A+
 Sun, Jan 4 239 UTEP W 76 - 64 70% +2  53% 6 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +5 C+ +2 C+ A+ C+ B- +3 B- C+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 184 @Jacksonville St. L 64 - 71 37% -1  34% 6 - 6 2 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -4 C D- D C- -2 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 179 @Missouri St. L 71 - 79 36% -6  8% 6 - 7 2 - 3 D+ -6 D -5 F+ C+ B C -1 C- F A
 Wed, Jan 14 154 @Kennesaw St. L 86 - 89 31% +4  72% 6 - 8 2 - 4 C +0 B+ +7 D A+ B D -7 F+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 121 Sam Houston St. L 63 - 76 44% -7  3% 6 - 9 2 - 5 D- -13 F -17 F F+ F B +5 C+ B A
 Thu, Jan 22 239 @UTEP L 77 - 83 48% -5  7% 6 - 10 2 - 6 D+ -7 C +1 B+ D- C+ D- -8 F F A
 Sat, Jan 24 167 @New Mexico St. W 81 - 78 33% +4  71% 7 - 10 3 - 6 B- +6 C- -0 C F A+ B +6 A- C+ A
 Wed, Jan 28 184 Jacksonville St. L 74 - 78 60% +4  69% 7 - 11 3 - 7 D -9 F -11 C D F B- +3 D+ A B-
 Wed, Feb 4 173 @Middle Tennessee W 88 - 84 OT 34% +1  58% 8 - 11 4 - 7 B- +6 C +1 C- D+ B- B +4 C A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 160 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 80 33% +1  55% 8 - 12 4 - 8 D+ -7 C -0 C- C+ C- D- -7 C+ F+ F+
 Thu, Feb 12 279 Delaware W 77 - 69 77%
 Sat, Feb 14 223 Louisiana Tech W 73 - 69 66%
 Thu, Feb 19 95 @Liberty L 73 - 83 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 179 Missouri St. W 77 - 75 57%
 Thu, Feb 26 121 @Sam Houston St. L 79 - 87 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 223 @Louisiana Tech L 70 - 72 44%
 Thu, Mar 5 173 Middle Tennessee W 77 - 75 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 160 Western Kentucky W 80 - 79 55%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 12 -2 C- -1 C C+ C C -1 C D B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C C+ C 46% 21% 34% C+ C C+ C+ C+ C C+ D C C C D- C+ C 36% 15% 49% D+ C D- C D B+ C C C
1.07 56% 37% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .34 17% .32 68% .22 1.10 57% 43% 33% 0 +1 1.03 35% 1.0 .36 20% .31 72% .23
Nov
8		 Nebraska D+ F A+ D+ F+ 48% 17% 34% A+ D+ A+ C A- F F C- F C- C+ B- F F 37% 10% 53% C- F C- F D- A+ A+ A+ A+
0.86 36% 50% 30% -11 +1 0.83 39% 0.8 .32 26% .11 67% .07 1.25 64% 33% 52% +16 +1 1.36 28% 1.3 .38 20% .13 63% .08
Nov
13		 LSU C+ D+ A+ F D 48% 13% 38% A C- C+ A- B B+ C+ D C D+ D C A+ B 43% 25% 31% B B D F F B F F F
1.04 52% 50% 26% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.1 .33 13% .31 62% .19 1.26 68% 38% 25% 0 0 1.02 39% 1.8 .68 18% .53 88% .47
Nov
24		 James Madison D F A+ B- D 38% 15% 47% C+ D B F D B A F C+ D- A+ D A+ A+ 32% 10% 58% D+ A+ F D F D F D F
1.07 30% 63% 36% -5 +1 0.92 35% 0.7 .25 10% .45 59% .26 1.18 38% 40% 21% -18 +1 0.68 51% 1.2 .59 15% .52 73% .38
Nov
26		 Nebraska Omaha F+ C- F B- D 27% 23% 50% F+ D D B C- A- B- F F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% D+ A+ F+ F F A+ F C+ F+
1.03 60% 23% 36% -2 -1 0.96 25% 1.1 .28 10% .34 50% .17 0.85 38% 57% 21% -14 0 0.74 32% 1.5 .49 28% .38 70% .27
Dec
3		 Florida Gulf Coast C+ D+ F C D 40% 14% 46% B- D+ D+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+ D+ C B+ A A- 49% 11% 40% F B- F B D- C+ F+ F F
1.17 55% 29% 35% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.4 .41 17% .56 86% .48 1.09 59% 33% 27% -4 +2 0.98 41% 0.9 .38 18% .34 86% .29
Dec
6		 Jacksonville A- B F A+ A+ 48% 18% 34% B- A+ D- C+ D C- A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A- C- B 23% 19% 58% B B F B- F A+ C A- B-
1.29 67% 25% 67% +19 +1 1.41 23% 1.0 .23 16% .52 77% .40 0.95 33% 30% 33% -8 -1 0.85 43% 0.9 .41 26% .28 64% .18
Dec
16		 Miami (FL) B A- A+ F B 43% 26% 30% C+ B A D- B C+ A C- B+ D F F B+ D- 55% 9% 36% F F+ F+ B C- C F D+ F
1.07 65% 50% 25% +2 0 1.06 35% 0.9 .32 18% .34 67% .23 1.29 74% 80% 30% +11 +3 1.29 44% 0.9 .41 16% .49 71% .34
Dec
20		 LIU Brooklyn C+ A+ F B A 52% 17% 31% B- A C D- D+ D+ A- D+ B C B- F C C+ 49% 11% 40% F C- F A C+ A C- C C
1.13 78% 11% 38% +7 +1 1.19 34% 0.9 .31 20% .39 67% .26 1.04 54% 50% 33% -1 +2 1.04 45% 0.7 .33 26% .30 65% .20
Dec
28		 Liberty B+ F A+ B+ C- 60% 16% 24% A C+ A+ C+ A+ C- A+ D+ A+ D- F+ B D+ C- 34% 5% 61% B C F C F C C+ F+ C-
1.22 42% 78% 38% -1 +2 1.04 50% 1.3 .63 18% .37 70% .25 1.26 71% 33% 38% +8 +2 1.21 31% 1.0 .31 13% .24 75% .18
Jan
2		 New Mexico St. A- A- F A+ A- 40% 25% 35% C B+ A A+ A+ D- A- D B C+ D+ F D- F 31% 18% 51% F+ F A+ D+ A A+ A- B+ A-
1.25 68% 25% 41% +5 0 1.10 41% 1.5 .62 18% .45 73% .33 1.04 63% 56% 38% +8 0 1.18 20% 1.0 .20 21% .21 67% .14
Jan
4		 UTEP C+ B+ B- F C- 53% 16% 31% A C+ B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F B B- A+ C+ D+ B+ 35% 17% 48% F B- D- A C+ C+ B+ F C
1.14 67% 43% 21% 0 +2 1.04 39% 1.3 .52 18% .49 63% .31 0.96 39% 33% 36% -6 0 0.90 32% 0.8 .24 18% .22 83% .18
Jan
7		 Jacksonville St. D+ C+ B+ F C 46% 23% 31% C C F A- D- D B A- A- C- C F F F 44% 10% 46% C- F F F F A+ D F+ F+
0.99 59% 45% 27% -1 0 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 19% .36 84% .30 1.10 56% 50% 42% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.2 .46 25% .41 75% .31
Jan
10		 Missouri St. D A D- F F+ 30% 42% 28% D- F+ D+ A- C+ B D F F C D+ F B- C- 14% 20% 66% B C- D F F A F B+ F
0.99 75% 32% 20% -3 -3 0.89 30% 1.3 .38 15% .31 58% .18 1.11 67% 56% 31% +2 -2 1.02 36% 1.5 .55 22% .56 61% .34
Jan
14		 Kennesaw St. B+ F F+ A+ F+ 53% 13% 35% B+ D A+ A A+ B C D+ C- D B- A+ F F 31% 15% 55% B F+ D+ B+ C+ D F A+ D+
1.16 31% 29% 47% -8 +2 0.89 44% 1.2 .53 14% .39 72% .28 1.21 53% 13% 47% +5 0 1.13 37% 0.8 .30 15% .46 59% .27
Jan
17		 Sam Houston St. F F F A F 37% 21% 42% C F C+ F F+ F A+ F A+ B F B+ B+ C 29% 20% 51% B C+ B- B- B A F A+ F+
0.84 25% 11% 39% -15 0 0.72 32% 0.7 .22 24% .68 62% .42 1.01 73% 30% 31% +1 -1 1.02 33% 0.9 .30 23% .45 54% .24
Jan
22		 UTEP C B+ D A+ A 38% 36% 26% D- B+ C- F D- C+ A F B- D- D F+ F F 32% 26% 42% D+ F D+ F F A C+ D+ C+
1.07 67% 35% 50% +9 -2 1.15 31% 0.8 .25 18% .46 63% .29 1.16 65% 43% 41% +8 -1 1.15 29% 1.3 .39 22% .25 71% .18
Jan
24		 New Mexico St. C- C A+ F C 39% 19% 42% B- C F D- F A+ B- F C- B A+ A+ C- A 30% 28% 43% C+ A- F A+ C+ A F B+ F
1.07 59% 55% 25% -2 0 0.98 20% 1.0 .20 8% .40 68% .27 1.03 44% 27% 35% -7 -2 0.85 43% 0.7 .29 20% .45 67% .30
Jan
28		 Jacksonville St. F C+ C+ F+ C- 50% 10% 40% A- C D- C- D F B D- C+ B- F A A+ C- 62% 8% 30% F D+ A+ C- A B- F C F
0.93 58% 40% 29% -3 +2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 24% .36 73% .26 0.98 68% 25% 20% -1 +3 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 20% .50 69% .34
Feb
4		 Middle Tennessee C D C A C 48% 34% 18% D C- C- D D+ B- A+ D- A+ B D- F B- C+ 21% 7% 71% D- C A A+ A+ D+ F D F
1.07 52% 37% 40% -2 -1 0.96 25% 0.9 .23 13% .52 70% .37 1.02 67% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 22% 0.3 .07 15% .47 70% .33
Feb
7		 Western Kentucky C A+ F B C 35% 31% 33% D+ C- C+ C+ C+ C- D A+ C D- C A+ B B- 40% 12% 47% D- C+ F C+ F+ F+ A F B
1.03 71% 20% 38% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .34 79% .27 1.17 52% 14% 30% -8 +1 0.88 44% 0.9 .40 10% .21 85% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.2 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.2 0.2 1.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 1.5 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 1.2 4.7 0.4 6.4 5th
6th 0.2 5.9 3.2 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 3.2 9.7 0.6 13.5 7th
8th 0.8 9.9 3.8 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.2 6.0 10.6 0.5 17.4 9th
10th 0.3 3.5 11.4 2.4 0.0 17.5 10th
11th 0.0 1.7 6.6 3.8 0.1 12.3 11th
12th 0.5 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.4 12th
Total 0.6 3.7 11.3 22.2 26.5 21.3 10.8 3.3 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.4% 19.5% 19.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 3.3% 12.3% 12.3% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.9
10-10 10.8% 5.7% 5.7% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 10.2
9-11 21.3% 3.8% 3.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 20.4
8-12 26.5% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.1 0.7 25.7
7-13 22.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 21.8
6-14 11.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.2
5-15 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.0 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%