Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#239
Expected Predictive Rating-10.7#313
Pace63.1#332
Improvement-1.5#288

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#319
First Shot-8.6#360
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#32
Layup/Dunks-1.7#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#359
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#204
Freethrows-1.8#291
Improvement-1.9#319

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#136
First Shot-2.7#262
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#14
Layups/Dunks-2.2#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#156
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#135
Freethrows-2.5#322
Improvement+0.3#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.0% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 13.7% 18.5% 5.5%
.500 or above in Conference 25.3% 29.4% 17.9%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.6% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 18.9% 15.7% 24.5%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round1.5% 1.9% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 63.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 33 - 94 - 14
Quad 47 - 511 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 14 235 Coastal Carolina W 74-67 61%     1 - 0 -0.3 +3.1 -3.1
  Wed, Nov 19 166 South Alabama L 65-71 48%     1 - 1 -9.8 -6.2 -3.9
  Mon, Nov 24 149 @Arkansas St. L 63-74 23%     1 - 2 -7.7 -11.2 +4.0
  Wed, Nov 26 155 North Dakota St. L 43-56 34%     1 - 3 -13.2 -22.8 +7.9
  Mon, Dec 1 200 North Alabama L 66-73 54%     1 - 4 -12.5 -5.5 -7.4
  Sat, Dec 13 338 @Georgia St. W 67-63 64%    
  Wed, Dec 17 269 Eastern Kentucky W 73-69 65%    
  Sat, Dec 20 117 @East Tennessee St. L 61-72 16%    
  Mon, Dec 29 128 Western Kentucky L 69-73 37%    
  Fri, Jan 2 296 @Delaware W 66-65 50%    
  Sun, Jan 4 94 @Liberty L 60-73 12%    
  Wed, Jan 7 189 Florida International W 70-69 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 152 @Kennesaw St. L 70-78 24%    
  Wed, Jan 14 126 Sam Houston St. L 68-72 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 193 Louisiana Tech W 62-61 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 136 Middle Tennessee L 66-69 39%    
  Wed, Jan 28 189 @Florida International L 66-72 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 255 @Missouri St. L 62-64 42%    
  Thu, Feb 5 128 @Western Kentucky L 66-76 20%    
  Sat, Feb 7 152 Kennesaw St. L 73-75 45%    
  Wed, Feb 11 241 UTEP W 64-61 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 127 New Mexico St. L 62-66 37%    
  Wed, Feb 18 193 @Louisiana Tech L 59-64 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 126 @Sam Houston St. L 65-75 19%    
  Thu, Feb 26 296 Delaware W 69-63 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 94 Liberty L 63-70 27%    
  Thu, Mar 5 127 @New Mexico St. L 59-69 20%    
  Sat, Mar 7 241 @UTEP L 61-64 40%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 13.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.8 3.6 0.8 0.0 14.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.0 4.9 3.0 0.7 0.1 14.5 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.6 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 12.2 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.9 5.2 7.8 10.2 12.2 12.6 11.9 10.8 8.5 6.7 4.2 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 91.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 71.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 45.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 17.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 31.4% 31.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 19.4% 19.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 0.8% 15.3% 15.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-6 1.7% 9.5% 9.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
13-7 2.7% 7.2% 7.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
12-8 4.2% 6.5% 6.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.0
11-9 6.7% 3.3% 3.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5
10-10 8.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.3
9-11 10.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.7
8-12 11.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.8
7-13 12.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.5
6-14 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-15 10.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.1
4-16 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.8
3-17 5.2% 5.2
2-18 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%