Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.0 192
Results Rating -3.9 234
Consistency 0.14 129
Pace 63.3 322
Improvement +4.4 44

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 211 C- C- C C+ B+
Defense C 188 C C+ C- D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 8 D 52% 315 +2.7 85
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 248 D- 31% 351 -3.5 337
Three Pointers 38% 238 B 37% 71 +0.1 175
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.5 21 D+ -2.2 259
1st FG Attempt C- 1.01 195
Second Chance C- 28.6% 233 C- 1.00 236 C- 0.29 240
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 55
Other Turnovers D- 8.8% 334
Turnovers C 16.9% 190
Freethrows B 0.35 55 D 69% 302 C+ 0.24 121
Total Offense C- -1.6 211

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 36% 338 C+ 10.2% 134
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 158 C- 6.0% 257
Three Pointers C- 81% 242 C+ 0.7% 138
Total D+ 50% 304 C- 6.0% 229


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 200 C+ 57% 134 -0.7 149
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 321 C 38% 184 -1.8 45
Three Pointers 46% 47 C 34% 185 +2.5 301
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 275 C -0.5 158
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 176
Second Chance B- 28.2% 97 C 1.03 171 C+ 0.29 115
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 249
Other Turnovers C+ 7.7% 113
Turnovers C- 16.3% 206
Freethrows D+ 0.33 273 F 77% 360 D 0.26 315
Total Defense C -0.4 188

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 129 C 10.9% 177
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 231 D+ 3.3% 268
Three Pointers C 84% 175 D 0.2% 337
Total C- 57% 211 C- 4.8% 241

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 303 17.3 187
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 202 0.18 227
Consistency 0.13 234 0.11 99
Improvement +4.3 23 +0.1 189

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 218 193 167
Results Rating Rank 255 224 188
Conference Record 9 - 11 10 - 10 11 - 9
Conference Finish 7 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.4 15.9
.500 or above 3% 5% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 68% 100% 51%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 76 - 10
Quad 47 - 813 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 14 228 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 67 68% +7  80% 1 - 0 C +0 C+ +2 C- A- C C -1 A+ F F+
 Wed, Nov 19 186 South Alabama L 65 - 71 60% +6  81% 1 - 1 D -11 D- -8 C- D C- D+ -3 C- C D
 Mon, Nov 24 146 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 74 28% -7  13% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F -14 F F+ F A- +7 C+ A+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 131 North Dakota St. L 43 - 56 35% -10  13% 1 - 3 D -11 F -27 F D- F A+ +14 C+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 342 North Alabama L 66 - 73 89% +2  61% 1 - 4 F -22 F -13 F B C+ F+ -10 C D F
 Sat, Dec 13 305 @Georgia St. L 73 - 77 63% -5  5% 1 - 5 D -10 C +1 F+ B A+ F -11 D D- F
 Wed, Dec 17 288 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 62 78% -5  3% 1 - 6 D- -13 F -19 F F C- B+ +5 B+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 141 @East Tennessee St. W 81 - 75 28% +1  46% 2 - 6 B +10 A+ +18 A+ C+ C- D- -7 F B B-
 Mon, Dec 29 130 Western Kentucky W 78 - 67 46% +12  89% 3 - 6 1 - 0 B +10 B- +5 A+ F F B+ +5 A B B-
 Fri, Jan 2 274 @Delaware W 67 - 64 55% +4  86% 4 - 6 2 - 0 C -0 C +0 C- C+ F C +0 D A F
 Sun, Jan 4 114 @Liberty L 69 - 78 21% -4  23% 4 - 7 2 - 1 C- -3 C +0 F+ C+ A- D+ -4 A+ F D
 Wed, Jan 7 199 Florida International W 71 - 64 62% +1  56% 5 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +2 C- -1 B+ A- F B- +3 C A C+
 Sat, Jan 10 157 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 88 31% -5  2% 5 - 8 3 - 2 C- -3 B- +4 A C C D- -7 C F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 108 Sam Houston St. L 62 - 77 39% -7  1% 5 - 9 3 - 3 D- -14 D- -7 D D+ B F+ -9 F D+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 220 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 60 67% +10  98% 6 - 9 4 - 3 C- -3 C+ +2 C+ C- C- D+ -4 B- F D
 Fri, Jan 23 164 Middle Tennessee W 75 - 58 55% +9  95% 7 - 9 5 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +9 A F C+ A- +7 A B- D-
 Wed, Jan 28 199 @Florida International W 78 - 74 39% -4  17% 8 - 9 6 - 3 C+ +5 D -6 C F C+ A +10 C A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 204 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 40% -7  6% 8 - 10 6 - 4 D+ -6 D- -7 F A F C +0 D+ F+ C
 Thu, Feb 5 130 @Western Kentucky W 71 - 66 25% +1  52% 9 - 10 7 - 4 B +10 C- -2 F A- F A+ +12 A A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 157 Kennesaw St. W 77 - 58 53% +11  92% 10 - 10 8 - 4 A- +16 C+ +4 B C+ B- A+ +14 A+ D+ C
 Wed, Feb 11 259 UTEP L 64 - 69 74% -0  46% 10 - 11 8 - 5 D- -14 D+ -3 B+ D+ F+ F -11 F B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 176 New Mexico St. L 70 - 79 58% -5  12% 10 - 12 8 - 6 D- -13 D -4 F C+ A+ F+ -9 C+ F D
 Wed, Feb 18 220 @Louisiana Tech L 71 - 77 44% -11  0% 10 - 13 8 - 7 D+ -7 C- -1 B F C+ D -5 F B B
 Sat, Feb 21 108 @Sam Houston St. L 78 - 82 20% -3  29% 10 - 14 8 - 8 C+ +3 B+ +8 B+ F A+ D -5 C- C C-
 Thu, Feb 26 274 Delaware W 80 - 70 OT 75% +2  59% 11 - 14 9 - 8 C +1 C+ +3 B+ C- C+ C- -2 C A D+
 Sat, Feb 28 114 Liberty L 78 - 81 41% +3  81% 11 - 15 9 - 9 C- -3 B +7 B C+ A+ F -10 F A+ C-
 Thu, Mar 5 176 @New Mexico St. L 69 - 73 35%
 Sat, Mar 7 259 @UTEP W 67 - 66 52%
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 10 -2 C- -2 B D+ B+ C +0 B D C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D D- B D+ 48% 31% 38% B+ C- C- C- C- C B D C+ C C+ C C C 38% 16% 46% D+ C B- C C+ C- D+ F D
1.06 52% 31% 37% -2 +2 1.01 29% 1.0 .29 17% .35 69% .24 1.09 57% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 28% 1.0 .29 16% .33 77% .27
Nov
14		 Coastal Carolina C+ D- F B D- 47% 14% 39% A+ C- D A+ A- C A D+ A- C B+ F+ A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% D- A+ D- F F F+ C- F F
1.11 48% 14% 37% -7 +1 0.92 24% 1.7 .39 12% .39 70% .27 1.00 47% 45% 16% -15 0 0.72 30% 1.3 .40 12% .27 94% .26
Nov
19		 South Alabama D- F D+ B- D+ 33% 5% 62% B C- D D D C- F F F D+ B F A- C 57% 19% 23% D C- B+ F C D F B- D-
0.98 44% 33% 35% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 18% .07 25% .02 1.07 52% 56% 27% -3 +2 1.00 18% 1.5 .27 11% .41 63% .25
Nov
24		 Arkansas St. F F A+ F F 38% 16% 46% B- F B- F F+ F A+ D- A+ A- B A+ C- B 39% 8% 53% D- C+ A+ C+ A+ B F D- F
0.86 47% 75% 17% -10 +1 0.84 31% 0.6 .18 20% .50 66% .33 1.01 53% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 22% 1.0 .22 22% .51 79% .40
Nov
26		 North Dakota St. F F F F F 29% 29% 43% F+ F C F D- F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ F C- 23% 34% 43% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C F+ A+ C
0.69 42% 17% 22% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 24% .49 57% .28 0.90 70% 20% 42% +2 -3 1.00 23% 0.4 .09 16% .33 59% .19
Dec
1		 North Alabama F F F D+ F 46% 8% 46% B F D+ A+ B C+ A- F F+ F+ A- D B- B- 52% 10% 38% F C C- D- D F C F D
1.00 41% 0% 32% -13 +2 0.81 31% 1.5 .45 14% .35 45% .16 1.11 44% 40% 30% -9 +2 0.88 32% 1.2 .37 14% .32 78% .25
Dec
13		 Georgia St. C F F B F 54% 10% 37% A F+ D+ A+ B A+ C+ F F+ F A+ F D D 21% 26% 53% C D C- F D- F F F+ F
1.11 43% 20% 37% -8 +3 0.90 32% 1.3 .41 6% .32 50% .16 1.17 33% 45% 35% -3 -2 0.93 28% 1.2 .34 11% .54 84% .46
Dec
17		 Eastern Kentucky F F B+ F F 48% 14% 38% A- F D+ F F C- A+ B- A+ B+ A+ B D+ A 31% 13% 56% F B+ F C D- A+ B F C-
0.93 45% 50% 25% -10 +1 0.86 31% 0.5 .17 16% .47 76% .36 0.98 29% 33% 36% -8 0 0.87 39% 1.1 .42 27% .22 90% .19
Dec
20		 East Tennessee St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 45% 5% 50% A- A+ A+ F C+ C- A+ F A+ D- B F F F 39% 21% 39% C+ F A- D B B- F D F
1.31 61% 50% 55% +18 +2 1.43 42% 0.7 .31 19% .54 67% .36 1.21 53% 50% 53% +12 0 1.26 21% 1.2 .25 18% .57 79% .45
Dec
29		 Western Kentucky B- B A+ A+ A+ 46% 3% 51% A+ A+ F+ F F F A+ C A+ B+ A A- A A+ 31% 13% 56% C A F A+ B B- D A C
1.13 63% 100% 50% +16 +3 1.40 20% 0.6 .12 25% .75 69% .52 0.97 41% 29% 27% -13 0 0.78 44% 0.6 .26 16% .36 67% .24
Jan
2		 Delaware C D+ F C- D- 51% 3% 46% A+ C- D A+ C+ F A+ F A+ C D F C D+ 28% 10% 62% D D C A+ A F A+ F+ A+
1.11 55% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.03 26% 1.3 .33 18% .53 69% .37 1.06 64% 60% 35% +5 +1 1.14 19% 0.3 .06 13% .12 83% .10
Jan
4		 Liberty C D- F D F 51% 10% 39% A F+ B- D+ C+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A A+ C- A+ 50% 4% 46% D+ A+ F B F D F F F
1.08 48% 20% 32% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.2 .40 14% .35 89% .31 1.23 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 31% 0.9 .28 11% .49 79% .39
Jan
7		 Florida International C- C- A A+ B 44% 10% 46% B B+ B- A A- F A B- A B- C- F+ A+ C 46% 23% 31% C C A+ F+ A C+ D F F
1.10 56% 50% 42% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.2 .46 25% .41 75% .31 0.99 59% 45% 27% -1 0 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 19% .36 84% .30
Jan
10		 Kennesaw St. B- C- A+ A+ A- 55% 4% 40% A+ A C+ D+ C C B F D+ D- C+ A C- C+ 48% 9% 43% D- C C+ F F D- F D- F
1.13 54% 50% 47% +6 +3 1.21 31% 0.9 .28 17% .45 63% .28 1.21 55% 25% 35% -2 +2 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 14% .54 74% .40
Jan
14		 Sam Houston St. D- F A+ F+ D- 47% 13% 40% A- D C F+ D+ B B F C F+ F A+ F F 49% 11% 40% F F B+ F D+ B A+ C+ A+
1.00 48% 50% 28% -7 +2 0.91 29% 0.9 .26 14% .36 63% .23 1.24 74% 20% 47% +14 +2 1.34 30% 1.3 .39 19% .14 71% .10
Jan
17		 Louisiana Tech C+ D+ F A C 45% 9% 45% A- C+ D+ B- C- C- A- B+ A D+ A- F+ A C+ 40% 31% 29% B+ B- F D+ F D C+ F F
1.10 50% 0% 40% -3 +2 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 19% .38 78% .30 1.03 47% 46% 25% -6 -1 0.88 44% 0.9 .38 17% .27 92% .25
Jan
23		 Middle Tennessee B+ D- F A+ A 60% 9% 32% A+ A C F F C+ B+ A A A- A+ F B+ A+ 40% 17% 43% F+ A B- B- B- D- C A+ B-
1.23 50% 25% 60% +7 +3 1.21 26% 0.6 .15 15% .37 84% .31 0.95 42% 50% 30% -7 +1 0.89 28% 0.9 .25 13% .26 57% .15
Jan
28		 Florida International D A- F F D+ 62% 8% 30% A+ C F C F C+ A+ D A+ A C D+ A B- 50% 10% 40% F C A+ C+ A A+ D D D-
0.98 68% 25% 20% -1 +3 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 20% .50 69% .34 0.93 58% 40% 29% -3 +2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 24% .36 73% .26
Jan
31		 Missouri St. D- B B F D- 24% 50% 26% F F A+ F+ A F A+ B A+ C F C+ C+ D- 21% 32% 47% A D+ D F+ F+ C D+ A+ C+
0.98 70% 43% 18% -1 -5 0.90 50% 0.9 .47 26% .54 78% .42 1.08 90% 33% 32% +4 -3 1.04 35% 1.3 .44 18% .37 57% .21
Feb
5		 Western Kentucky C- F A F F 56% 26% 18% B F A B- A- F A+ B- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A 26% 22% 52% A A B A+ A+ C- F+ F F
0.99 41% 50% 14% -12 +1 0.79 37% 1.0 .37 22% .90 72% .65 0.92 57% 17% 25% -12 -1 0.76 27% 0.6 .16 14% .39 88% .34
Feb
7		 Kennesaw St. C+ C- C+ A B 41% 11% 48% B B C C+ C+ B- B- D- C- A+ A B- A+ A+ 31% 12% 57% B- A+ B+ F D+ C C C C
1.16 53% 40% 41% +3 +1 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 15% .43 71% .30 0.88 44% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.71 30% 1.2 .36 17% .34 68% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 UTEP D+ C+ D- A+ A- 37% 22% 41% C B+ D+ C- D+ F+ F+ F F F C- F+ F F 24% 17% 59% F+ F C+ A+ B+ B- F D- F
1.07 60% 33% 47% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 22% .30 57% .17 1.15 60% 43% 46% +12 -1 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 18% .39 74% .29
Feb
14		 New Mexico St. D F F D- F 43% 16% 41% B+ F F+ A+ C+ A+ F+ F F F+ C A+ B- B+ 42% 9% 49% F C+ B+ F F D F F F
1.06 40% 22% 29% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.6 .37 5% .30 68% .21 1.20 58% 0% 32% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.6 .44 12% .54 84% .45
Feb
18		 Louisiana Tech C- F D A+ B+ 36% 19% 45% C- B F F+ F C+ B+ F C+ D F A F+ F 50% 15% 35% F F A D+ B B F+ A- D+
1.01 41% 33% 48% +2 0 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 17% .38 64% .24 1.10 83% 29% 38% +13 +2 1.30 26% 0.9 .22 21% .34 58% .20
Feb
21		 Sam Houston St. B+ A+ F A- A- 39% 22% 39% C B+ F F F A+ C- A- C D D B- D+ C- 38% 20% 42% C+ C- B D C C- F F F
1.16 76% 17% 38% +5 0 1.11 20% 0.7 .13 10% .30 78% .23 1.22 65% 33% 37% +3 0 1.09 32% 1.1 .35 16% .50 82% .41
Feb
26		 Delaware C+ D- F A+ B- 49% 8% 43% A+ B+ D+ B C- C+ B- A+ A C- A+ F F C+ 41% 6% 53% F C C+ A+ A D+ F C- F
1.20 52% 0% 50% +4 +2 1.16 27% 1.1 .30 13% .31 94% .29 1.05 40% 67% 42% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.3 .05 16% .34 79% .27
Feb
28		 Liberty B D+ A+ A C 59% 6% 35% A+ B D A+ C+ A+ A+ D A F F F F F 44% 4% 52% C F B+ A+ A+ C- F+ F F
1.23 52% 67% 41% +2 +3 1.12 27% 1.5 .40 11% .35 70% .25 1.28 76% 50% 44% +16 +3 1.40 12% 0.0 .00 13% .32 78% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 2.6 2.6 3rd
4th 8.2 12.2 20.4 4th
5th 3.9 29.8 4.0 37.7 5th
6th 14.8 10.8 25.7 6th
7th 12.8 0.8 13.6 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 31.6 49.7 18.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 18.8% 6.1% 6.1% 15.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 17.6
10-10 49.7% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.2 1.5 48.0
9-11 31.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.6 31.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 15.7 96.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 15.2 5.7 70.0 24.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.4%
Lose Out 15.6%