North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.3 344
Expected Predictive Rating -11.7 336
Pace 64.8 281
Improvement -4.9 345

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 308 D- C C- C- C+
Defense D- 345 D F D C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 30 D- 50% 339 +0.4 161
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 187 D 33% 336 -1.2 247
Three Pointers 35% 308 D 31% 308 -4.9 328
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 112 F+ -6.1 348
1st FG Attempt D- 0.91 333
Second Chance C- 29.6% 213 C+ 1.05 137 C 0.31 179
Turnovers C- 17.9% 246
Freethrows C 0.30 189 D- 68% 327 C- 0.21 239
Total Offense D -5.2 308

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 104 C- 60% 243 -2.8 273
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 333 D- 44% 344 +1.1 112
Three Pointers 43% 113 D+ 35% 252 -2.1 285
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.5 112 D+ -6.1 348
1st FG Attempt 1.10 298 D -3.8 299
Second Chance D- 35.7% 341 F+ 1.18 344 F 0.42 357
Turnovers D 14.5% 321
Freethrows B- 0.28 84 D- 76% 343 C+ 0.21 140
Total Defense D- -7.1 345

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 304 17.0 132
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 313 0.20 293
Improvement -1.6 #282 -3.3 #324

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 95% 90% 99%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 37.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 44 - 127 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 79 @Mississippi St. L 62 - 86 3% -5  10% 0 - 1 D- -14 F+ -8 D- B F D+ -5 C- B- F
 Tue, Nov 11 279 Northwestern St. W 87 - 83 OT 41% +5  85% 1 - 1 D+ -6 C +2 D- A+ C D- -8 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 129 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 78 15% +8  88% 1 - 2 D+ -5 C- -1 D+ A+ C- D+ -5 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 38 @Clemson L 61 - 81 1% -14  5% 1 - 3 C- -3 C+ +3 D+ A- A+ D- -9 B F A-
 Sat, Nov 22 283 @Chattanooga L 57 - 71 22% -6  28% 1 - 4 F -18 F -11 D D F D- -9 D F A-
 Mon, Dec 1 184 @Jacksonville St. W 73 - 66 10% -2  17% 2 - 4 B +8 B- +4 D- B B+ B +5 A F F+
 Wed, Dec 3 118 @San Francisco W 65 - 63 6% -4  37% 3 - 4 B- +8 D+ -4 F A+ F A +12 A+ C- D+
 Mon, Dec 15 304 @Alabama A&M L 60 - 68 25% -0  36% 3 - 5 D- -13 F -13 D+ F D C -1 A F F
 Fri, Dec 19 150 @Loyola Marymount L 57 - 91 8% -22  0% 3 - 6 F -31 F -13 F F+ A F -18 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 331 Stetson L 67 - 70 57% -0  38% 3 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 F -12 F C D- D -5 F B+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 245 Florida Gulf Coast L 55 - 72 33% -8  0% 3 - 8 0 - 2 F -25 F -24 F F B C -1 D B- B-
 Thu, Jan 8 268 @Eastern Kentucky L 80 - 88 19% -3  15% 3 - 9 0 - 3 D -11 B- +5 B- C B- F -16 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 282 @Bellarmine W 82 - 73 22% +1  39% 4 - 9 1 - 3 B- +5 A +12 A+ D C D+ -5 D+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 343 North Florida L 91 - 105 61% -10  12% 4 - 10 1 - 4 F -29 C+ +2 C+ A C- F -31 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 309 Jacksonville L 68 - 90 49% -13  10% 4 - 11 1 - 5 F -34 F+ -10 F C C F -25 F F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 216 @Queens L 62 - 87 13% -10  4% 4 - 12 1 - 6 F -25 F -16 F D F F+ -9 D- F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 245 @Florida Gulf Coast L 64 - 72 16% -8  5% 4 - 13 1 - 7 D -10 F+ -9 F A+ C C -1 C C B-
 Sat, Jan 31 331 @Stetson W 68 - 66 34% +3  81% 5 - 13 2 - 7 D+ -6 D -5 D+ D D C -1 B+ F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 190 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 11% -7  15% 5 - 14 2 - 8 F -20 F -12 F D- C F+ -9 F D- C-
 Sat, Feb 7 151 @Austin Peay L 62 - 91 8% -17  4% 5 - 15 2 - 9 F -26 D+ -3 D- C C- F -27 F F F
 Mon, Feb 9 190 Central Arkansas L 65 - 72 24% +5  82% 5 - 16 2 - 10 D- -12 F -10 C- C F C- -2 B F B+
 Wed, Feb 11 318 West Georgia L 73 - 82 52% -6  2% 5 - 17 2 - 11 F -22 D+ -3 C+ F+ B+ F -19 F F+ F
 Sun, Feb 15 268 Eastern Kentucky L 74 - 77 38%
 Wed, Feb 18 216 Queens L 76 - 82 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 188 @Lipscomb L 68 - 81 10%
 Wed, Feb 25 282 Bellarmine L 75 - 77 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 318 @West Georgia L 71 - 77 30%
Totals 6 - 21 3 - 15 -12 F -5 C+ F+ C+ D -7 D D- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D D F+ 45% 20% 35% C+ D- C- C+ C C- C D- C- D- C- D- D+ D+ 42% 15% 43% D D D- F+ F D B- D- C+
1.01 50% 33% 31% -6 +1 0.91 30% 1.1 .31 18% .30 68% .21 1.19 60% 44% 35% +3 +1 1.10 36% 1.2 .42 14% .28 76% .23
Nov
5		 Mississippi St. F+ F D+ B D 26% 43% 31% F D- C- A+ B F D- F F D+ D- A D+ C- 40% 24% 36% C- C- F A+ B- F F B- D-
0.87 29% 35% 35% -8 -4 0.78 24% 1.3 .31 18% .20 58% .12 1.20 68% 31% 35% +3 0 1.07 43% 0.7 .30 10% .37 67% .25
Nov
11		 Northwestern St. C F+ F B F 51% 15% 34% B D- B+ A+ A+ C A+ D- A+ D- F D C F 40% 31% 29% C F B A+ A+ D F F F
1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41 1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38
Nov
15		 East Tennessee St. C- D- F B D 41% 13% 46% C+ D+ B- A+ A+ C- A A- A+ D+ F F C- F 35% 18% 47% B- F+ B+ A+ A+ F A A+ A+
1.08 53% 17% 38% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.4 .45 20% .39 81% .31 1.14 74% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 22% 0.6 .14 10% .23 57% .13
Nov
17		 Clemson C+ D- F D- D- 35% 13% 52% A- D+ A C+ A- A+ C F D+ D- C F+ B A- 39% 4% 57% D- B F C- F A- D F+ F+
0.97 47% 17% 28% -11 +1 0.81 33% 1.0 .33 13% .27 67% .18 1.29 61% 50% 31% -1 +2 1.04 54% 1.1 .60 19% .39 80% .31
Nov
22		 Chattanooga F C+ F D+ D 36% 19% 45% C- D C- F+ D F C F F D- D+ F C+ D 27% 15% 58% C- D F C- F A- C- B C
0.94 60% 25% 32% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 20% .35 53% .19 1.18 62% 57% 32% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.1 .45 20% .29 71% .21
Dec
1		 Jacksonville St. B- F C+ D F 52% 10% 38% A D- B- B+ B B+ C C C B A+ A+ B- A+ 46% 8% 46% D+ A C- F F F+ C+ A+ A+
1.11 44% 40% 30% -9 +2 0.88 32% 1.2 .37 14% .32 78% .25 1.00 41% 0% 32% -12 +2 0.81 31% 1.5 .45 14% .35 45% .16
Dec
3		 San Francisco D+ F B- F F 47% 29% 24% C- F A+ C A+ F B A+ A A B+ D- A+ A+ 29% 14% 57% C+ A+ A- F C- D+ B A A-
1.00 38% 40% 25% -12 -1 0.76 48% 1.1 .50 19% .32 82% .26 0.97 50% 43% 25% -9 0 0.84 27% 1.4 .38 14% .29 63% .18
Dec
15		 Alabama A&M F C F A C- 32% 28% 40% F D+ F F F D D+ F F+ C A+ F A+ A+ 36% 23% 40% C- A F F F F F B+ F
0.92 60% 23% 42% +1 -1 1.02 12% 0.5 .06 18% .32 59% .19 1.04 35% 45% 21% -14 -1 0.72 32% 1.2 .39 11% .53 68% .36
Dec
19		 Loyola Marymount F F C F F 43% 31% 25% C- F C- F F+ A A+ F B+ F B F F F+ 40% 9% 51% F F F F F F C- B- C
0.83 32% 38% 23% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.7 .21 12% .41 64% .26 1.32 55% 60% 43% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.6 .59 13% .28 65% .18
Jan
1		 Stetson F D D- F F 45% 6% 49% A F B- D C D- C+ D C D F F A- F 44% 16% 40% F F C A+ B+ B- D- D- F+
1.02 57% 33% 20% -11 +2 0.84 36% 1.1 .38 18% .30 69% .20 1.06 75% 57% 28% +7 +1 1.18 25% 0.7 .18 20% .36 74% .27
Jan
3		 Florida Gulf Coast F F F F F 48% 12% 40% B+ F F F F B A F B C C+ D F D 40% 21% 38% F+ D B- C+ B- B- A+ D- A
0.80 42% 0% 25% -18 +2 0.70 15% 0.8 .13 15% .46 67% .31 1.05 57% 45% 40% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .28 19% .16 78% .13
Jan
8		 Eastern Kentucky B- B A A- B+ 26% 32% 43% F B- F A+ C B- A+ F C F B F D+ D+ 28% 16% 56% D- D+ F F F F F F F
1.21 67% 53% 40% +11 -2 1.19 23% 1.4 .33 14% .44 56% .25 1.34 50% 50% 36% +1 0 1.04 43% 1.4 .60 9% .38 83% .32
Jan
10		 Bellarmine A A- F A+ A+ 37% 20% 44% C A+ B+ F D C A+ B+ A+ D+ F A+ D+ D+ 35% 10% 55% C+ D+ C+ F F D- B+ A+ A
1.36 73% 25% 61% +21 0 1.44 42% 0.8 .33 15% .43 77% .33 1.21 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.18 19% 1.8 .33 13% .25 62% .15
Jan
15		 North Florida C+ C D+ B C 60% 10% 31% A C+ C- A+ A C- B D- C+ F F F F F 30% 13% 57% C+ F F F F F F+ F F
1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +3 1.15 36% 1.6 .58 13% .33 65% .21 1.49 69% 57% 45% +15 0 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 10% .30 95% .28
Jan
17		 Jacksonville F+ D- A+ F F 53% 11% 36% A F F A+ C C A+ A- A+ F B- D F F 61% 14% 25% F F F+ F F D- D+ F F
1.01 54% 60% 19% -8 +2 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 15% .52 77% .40 1.34 52% 43% 54% +4 +3 1.16 35% 1.9 .65 15% .31 89% .28
Jan
21		 Queens F D- F F F 54% 13% 33% A- F C F D F A- C- B+ F+ F+ F A+ D 58% 11% 31% F D- F C F C+ F F F
0.92 52% 17% 27% -10 +2 0.87 34% 0.8 .29 24% .43 73% .31 1.29 69% 80% 21% +5 +3 1.18 46% 1.1 .50 16% .44 96% .42
Jan
29		 Florida Gulf Coast F+ A- F F F 48% 24% 28% C F D+ A+ A+ C A- D B C B F C- C 27% 20% 53% C- C C- C+ C B- B+ F C+
0.97 68% 18% 8% -11 0 0.80 27% 1.8 .48 17% .43 71% .31 1.09 54% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 20% .21 91% .19
Jan
31		 Stetson D A- F D- D+ 40% 16% 44% C+ D+ D+ D+ D D A- F+ B- C F+ A+ A+ A- 46% 22% 33% D B+ F F F C- C- F F+
1.08 72% 29% 30% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 67% .23 1.05 67% 10% 20% -9 0 0.85 34% 1.3 .46 17% .31 88% .27
Feb
4		 Central Arkansas F F D D+ F 43% 12% 45% B- F D- C D- C C+ F F+ F+ D- A+ F F 39% 7% 54% F+ F D+ F+ D- C- A+ F A-
0.90 43% 33% 32% -8 +1 0.88 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 50% .15 1.22 67% 0% 41% +7 +2 1.19 29% 1.2 .35 15% .16 78% .12
Feb
7		 Austin Peay D+ F A+ F F 59% 18% 24% A- D- A+ F C C- F A+ F+ F D- F F F 54% 6% 40% F F D+ F F F A+ A- A+
1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14 1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Central Arkansas F D A+ D D 58% 8% 34% A C- C+ C C F A+ C+ A+ C- B- F A+ B+ 39% 9% 52% F+ B C- F F B+ F F+ F
0.96 55% 67% 31% -1 +3 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 28% .47 74% .35 1.07 56% 75% 25% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.4 .41 19% .42 74% .31
Feb
11		 West Georgia D+ C D- A+ C+ 53% 23% 25% C- C+ F D- F+ B+ D D+ D- F C+ D- F F 33% 31% 37% C- F C- F F+ F B- F C-
1.13 61% 33% 46% +5 +1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 12% .28 69% .19 1.27 53% 44% 47% +7 -2 1.13 31% 1.3 .41 11% .24 86% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.3 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 1.1 1.0 2.1 10th
11th 5.4 8.2 0.4 14.0 11th
12th 18.0 36.1 24.3 3.7 0.0 82.1 12th
Total 18.0 36.1 29.6 13.1 2.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 2.9% 2.9
5-13 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-14 29.6% 29.6
3-15 36.1% 36.1
2-16 18.0% 18.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 18.0%