North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#200
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#156
Pace66.6#265
Improvement+2.9#27

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#199
First Shot-6.3#339
After Offensive Rebound+5.0#5
Layup/Dunks-0.9#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#273
Freethrows-1.6#280
Improvement+1.0#96

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#206
First Shot-0.3#179
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#251
Layups/Dunks-1.4#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#247
Freethrows+1.9#71
Improvement+1.9#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 15.9% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 69.6% 80.8% 58.4%
.500 or above in Conference 82.1% 86.0% 78.1%
Conference Champion 16.0% 19.5% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.6% 1.4%
First Four1.0% 0.7% 1.4%
First Round12.9% 15.5% 10.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 412 - 516 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 78 @Mississippi St. L 62-86 12%     0 - 1 -13.7 -7.5 -5.6
  Tue, Nov 11 302 Northwestern St. W 87-83 OT 79%     1 - 1 -6.8 +1.8 -8.8
  Sat, Nov 15 117 East Tennessee St. L 74-78 40%     1 - 2 -3.8 +3.4 -7.3
  Mon, Nov 17 33 @Clemson L 61-81 5%     1 - 3 -3.7 +2.5 -8.5
  Sat, Nov 22 222 @Chattanooga L 57-71 43%     1 - 4 -14.8 -8.7 -8.3
  Mon, Dec 1 239 @Jacksonville St. W 73-66 46%     2 - 4 +5.6 +7.2 -1.2
  Wed, Dec 3 100 @San Francisco W 65-63 16%     3 - 4 +10.0 +1.2 +8.9
  Mon, Dec 15 272 @Alabama A&M W 69-68 50%    
  Fri, Dec 19 140 @Loyola Marymount L 65-72 26%    
  Thu, Jan 1 347 Stetson W 78-65 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 174 Florida Gulf Coast W 77-75 56%    
  Thu, Jan 8 269 @Eastern Kentucky W 76-75 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 292 @Bellarmine W 75-73 57%    
  Thu, Jan 15 344 North Florida W 85-73 86%    
  Sat, Jan 17 291 Jacksonville W 73-65 76%    
  Wed, Jan 21 196 @Queens L 75-78 39%    
  Sat, Jan 24 279 Central Arkansas W 74-67 73%    
  Thu, Jan 29 174 @Florida Gulf Coast L 74-78 35%    
  Sat, Jan 31 347 @Stetson W 75-68 72%    
  Wed, Feb 4 279 @Central Arkansas W 71-70 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 180 @Austin Peay L 69-73 36%    
  Wed, Feb 11 318 West Georgia W 76-67 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 269 Eastern Kentucky W 79-73 71%    
  Wed, Feb 18 196 Queens W 78-75 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 161 @Lipscomb L 70-75 33%    
  Wed, Feb 25 292 Bellarmine W 78-70 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 318 @West Georgia W 73-70 62%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.5 4.4 2.7 1.0 0.2 16.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.8 6.0 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.2 2.9 0.4 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 0.4 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 5.0 7.6 10.5 12.8 14.2 14.0 12.2 8.9 5.5 2.8 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 95.4% 2.7    2.3 0.4 0.0
15-3 79.0% 4.4    3.0 1.2 0.1
14-4 50.4% 4.5    2.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.1% 2.6    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.0% 16.0 9.3 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 55.6% 55.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 38.5% 38.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.8% 36.0% 36.0% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.8
15-3 5.5% 31.3% 31.3% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.8
14-4 8.9% 24.9% 24.9% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 6.7
13-5 12.2% 19.1% 19.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 9.8
12-6 14.0% 15.3% 15.3% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 11.8
11-7 14.2% 11.2% 11.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.6 12.6
10-8 12.8% 7.7% 7.7% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 11.8
9-9 10.5% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.0
8-10 7.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.4
7-11 5.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 4.9
6-12 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 2.8
5-13 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 5.0 2.7 86.6 0.0%