North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -12.2 343
Expected Predictive Rating -13.3 348
Pace 75.9 27
Improvement +2.3 97

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 170 C+ C- D+ D B-
Defense F 365 D- F F B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 323 C 57% 197 -3.6 300
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 324 B- 41% 81 -2.5 300
Three Pointers 54% 4 C+ 35% 128 +7.6 17
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.5 108 C+ +0.9 140
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 124
Second Chance D 25.1% 327 B 1.12 60 C- 0.28 247
Turnovers D+ 18.5% 283
Freethrows F+ 0.23 351 A- 79% 8 D 0.19 315
Total Offense C -0.5 170

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 108 D 64% 317 -4.0 316
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 312 F 48% 363 +0.0 187
Three Pointers 42% 130 C- 34% 207 -1.1 238
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.5 108 D- +0.9 140
1st FG Attempt 1.12 331 D- -5.0 331
Second Chance F 37.4% 357 F+ 1.20 351 F 0.45 363
Turnovers F 12.1% 362
Freethrows B- 0.28 102 B 70% 64 B- 0.20 84
Total Defense F -11.7 365

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 141 15.9 14
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 273 0.25 352
Improvement +1.8 #98 +0.5 #152

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 2% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 13% 3% 16%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Away) - 27.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 60 - 12
Quad 46 - 136 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 4 @Florida L 64 - 104 0% -21  3% 0 - 1 D- -14 D -6 F A F+ C- -3 A+ F B
 Wed, Nov 12 18 @Tennessee L 66 - 99 1% -15  6% 0 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 C- B F D -6 B- F C
 Wed, Nov 19 212 @Wofford L 78 - 86 13% -1  42% 0 - 3 D+ -8 D+ -3 B F C+ D+ -5 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 22 249 Southern Miss L 83 - 92 24% +0  52% 0 - 4 D- -14 B- +5 A+ F F F -19 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 335 Prairie View L 82 - 85 47% +5  83% 0 - 5 F+ -14 C- -2 A+ C- F F -12 D- C- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 232 SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 72 31% -1  28% 0 - 6 F+ -16 D- -7 C- C- D- F+ -10 D F F+
 Sun, Dec 7 13 @Gonzaga L 58 - 109 0% -26  1% 0 - 7 F -29 F -12 D+ C- D F -12 D- F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 96 @Dayton L 61 - 84 4% -21  8% 0 - 8 F+ -15 D- -7 F B- C+ D- -8 F C+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 250 @Charleston Southern L 90 - 113 17% -12  0% 0 - 9 F -25 C+ +3 B- D C+ F -25 F B- F+
 Sun, Dec 21 41 @Miami (FL) L 67 - 105 1% -18  3% 0 - 10 F -22 D -5 D B F F -14 D- F D-
 Sun, Dec 28 204 Columbia L 82 - 90 26% -1  31% 0 - 11 D- -14 C +1 B F+ B F -14 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 1 151 @Austin Peay L 83 - 102 8% -8  9% 0 - 12 0 - 1 F+ -16 C+ +2 C+ F+ C- F -16 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 188 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 11% -2  40% 0 - 13 0 - 2 D+ -7 C- -1 C- D- C- D+ -5 A- F F
 Thu, Jan 8 318 West Georgia L 73 - 85 52% -6  0% 0 - 14 0 - 3 F -25 F -11 F A+ D- F -14 F F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 216 Queens L 82 - 89 28% -2  27% 0 - 15 0 - 4 D- -13 D -4 C D B D- -8 C F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 344 @North Alabama W 105 - 91 39% +10  80% 1 - 15 1 - 4 C+ +5 A+ +24 A+ B A F -19 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 190 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 98 11% -23  1% 1 - 16 1 - 5 F -28 D- -6 C- F C- F -21 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 268 Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 85 38% +2  67% 2 - 16 2 - 5 D+ -7 C+ +3 B B D+ F+ -10 D- F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 282 Bellarmine W 117 - 114 OT 42% +6  86% 3 - 16 3 - 5 D+ -7 A+ +17 A+ A- A- F -24 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 331 Stetson L 77 - 84 57% -6  2% 3 - 17 3 - 6 F -21 D -5 D- C C- F -16 F+ D F
 Sat, Jan 31 188 Lipscomb L 94 - 100 24% +2  58% 3 - 18 3 - 7 D -11 A +13 A A- C F -23 F C- F
 Thu, Feb 5 318 @West Georgia W 81 - 73 30% -1  30% 4 - 18 4 - 7 C +1 D+ -3 B F F B- +4 A+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 7 216 @Queens L 72 - 91 13% -5  22% 4 - 19 4 - 8 F -19 D- -8 C- F F F -12 D+ F F+
 Wed, Feb 11 245 @Florida Gulf Coast L 81 - 90 16% -7  9% 4 - 20 4 - 9 D -11 C +1 C- D+ B- F -11 F D F
 Sat, Feb 14 309 @Jacksonville L 75 - 81 28%
 Thu, Feb 19 151 Austin Peay L 80 - 89 19%
 Sat, Feb 21 331 @Stetson L 82 - 86 35%
 Thu, Feb 26 245 Florida Gulf Coast L 82 - 87 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 309 Jacksonville L 77 - 78 49%
Totals 6 - 23 6 - 12 -12 F +0 F+ C+ B- D- -12 C+ A- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C B- C+ C+ 33% 13% 54% B- C+ D B C- D+ F+ A- D F D F C- D- 41% 16% 42% D D- F F+ F F B- B B-
1.08 57% 41% 35% +1 +1 1.05 25% 1.1 .28 19% .23 79% .19 1.25 64% 48% 34% +4 +1 1.12 37% 1.2 .45 12% .28 70% .16
Nov
6		 Florida D F F F F 38% 17% 45% A- F D+ A+ A F+ A A+ A+ C- D+ F A+ A+ 47% 3% 50% D A+ F F F B F+ A C-
0.80 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.69 17% 1.6 .26 20% .34 86% .30 1.30 67% 100% 14% -9 +3 0.90 63% 1.4 .87 18% .43 64% .27
Nov
12		 Tennessee D+ F+ B D- D+ 33% 9% 58% B+ C- B- B+ B F F F F D C+ F B+ B- 42% 15% 43% D+ B- F F F C C- C C-
0.87 44% 40% 28% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 22% .20 50% .10 1.30 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 63% 1.4 .84 18% .39 71% .27
Nov
19		 Wofford D+ C F A B 36% 12% 53% C B F B F C+ F D+ F D+ C- F A+ C+ 50% 4% 46% F C F F F C- F+ A D+
1.07 57% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.14 12% 1.3 .15 15% .13 75% .10 1.18 58% 100% 25% -4 +3 1.00 36% 1.5 .56 14% .40 64% .25
Nov
22		 Southern Miss B- A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 18% 58% D A+ F A+ F F F A+ F F D F A+ F 52% 30% 19% F+ F F D F F D- A+ C+
1.16 83% 56% 48% +22 -1 1.44 9% 1.5 .14 25% .19 80% .15 1.29 64% 63% 20% +7 0 1.15 45% 1.1 .52 14% .42 62% .26
Nov
23		 Prairie View C- B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 11% 53% C+ A+ C C- C- F B- C B- F F D- B F+ 24% 39% 37% A D- F A+ C- D+ F B+ F
1.12 63% 80% 46% +16 +1 1.36 38% 1.0 .38 29% .42 73% .31 1.16 69% 43% 30% +2 -3 1.00 45% 0.5 .23 14% .52 70% .36
Dec
2		 SIU Edwardsville D- F B D+ D+ 35% 14% 51% B+ C- F A+ C- D- F A+ F F+ B+ D- D C- 45% 15% 40% F D F B- F F+ D- B+ D+
0.97 44% 43% 31% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.3 .30 18% .13 100% .13 1.10 48% 43% 37% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.9 .39 14% .34 63% .21
Dec
7		 Gonzaga F F A- F C- 9% 29% 62% F+ D+ D- B+ C- D F+ F F+ F F A+ F F+ 40% 31% 29% B- D- D- F F B- C+ D+ C+
0.75 40% 44% 26% -7 -3 0.82 17% 1.0 .17 23% .22 62% .13 1.41 78% 28% 53% +13 -1 1.26 42% 1.8 .74 16% .28 72% .20
Dec
13		 Dayton D- F F+ F F 35% 20% 45% C+ F B C+ B- C+ C- C- C- D- F F A- F 45% 9% 45% D F F A+ C+ F+ A+ A+ A+
0.89 44% 30% 26% -12 0 0.78 34% 1.0 .34 22% .30 69% .20 1.22 76% 80% 28% +8 +2 1.22 39% 0.8 .31 13% .28 47% .13
Dec
18		 Charleston Southern C+ C+ B- C B- 40% 16% 44% B+ B- F A+ D C+ C- A+ B- F F F F F 25% 10% 65% B- F A- D B- F+ D+ F F
1.12 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 16% 1.5 .24 11% .35 80% .28 1.41 80% 50% 51% +24 0 1.50 23% 1.0 .23 15% .29 85% .25
Dec
21		 Miami (FL) D F+ F C D- 27% 14% 59% B- D C- A+ B F B- A+ A F F F B+ F+ 47% 16% 36% C D- F C+ F D- F C F
0.89 46% 0% 34% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.5 .33 27% .29 88% .25 1.40 73% 78% 30% +11 +1 1.27 50% 1.0 .50 13% .44 69% .31
Dec
28		 Columbia C D- A+ B+ B- 42% 10% 48% B+ B F C+ F+ B F A+ F+ F D- F F F 51% 12% 37% D- F A+ F A- F F+ F F
1.14 48% 67% 38% +2 +2 1.08 17% 1.0 .17 11% .19 92% .17 1.25 65% 50% 47% +13 +2 1.31 20% 1.2 .24 15% .35 81% .28
Jan
1		 Austin Peay C+ D- C+ A C+ 37% 10% 53% B C+ F D- F+ C- A+ A+ A+ F C+ F A C+ 39% 18% 44% C- C+ F F F F D+ D- D
1.07 53% 40% 41% +4 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35 1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25
Jan
3		 Lipscomb C- F B B- D+ 23% 12% 65% B- C- C- F D- C- F A+ F D+ A A+ C B+ 26% 18% 56% A A- F C F F F A D-
1.05 43% 43% 36% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 18% .07 100% .07 1.16 47% 20% 34% -6 0 0.89 35% 1.1 .37 8% .34 68% .23
Jan
8		 West Georgia F A- F F F 41% 7% 52% B- F C- A+ A+ D- F C+ F F D- F C F 30% 36% 34% B- F C+ F F+ F+ D- F F
1.02 70% 25% 21% -6 +2 0.93 29% 1.6 .47 18% .19 73% .14 1.19 63% 47% 33% +4 -3 1.06 29% 1.4 .42 13% .32 85% .27
Jan
10		 Queens D A B+ D C 38% 15% 47% C+ C F A D B F A+ F D- D- A+ B+ B- 45% 5% 49% F C F F F D- F C F+
1.13 70% 44% 32% +4 +1 1.12 23% 1.3 .29 12% .19 83% .16 1.23 68% 0% 30% -1 +2 1.05 38% 1.4 .54 12% .38 75% .28
Jan
15		 North Alabama A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% D+ A+ C+ B+ B A B- A+ A F D- D F+ F 60% 10% 31% F F F F F F D+ B- C-
1.49 69% 57% 45% +15 0 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 10% .30 95% .28 1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +3 1.15 36% 1.6 .58 13% .33 65% .21
Jan
17		 Central Arkansas D- F+ A+ C C- 24% 14% 63% D+ C- F F F C- B- D- C+ F D- F F+ F 33% 11% 56% D+ F F D F F C- F D
0.98 50% 57% 34% +1 0 1.04 19% 0.6 .11 20% .32 67% .21 1.39 67% 67% 39% +10 +1 1.24 39% 1.1 .45 10% .28 78% .22
Jan
22		 Eastern Kentucky C+ B- A+ B- B- 45% 12% 43% A- B B B- B D+ D B- D+ F+ B- C- D- D+ 43% 9% 48% F D- D+ F F D+ C A+ A
1.22 65% 67% 36% +8 +2 1.22 38% 1.1 .41 17% .29 76% .22 1.20 52% 40% 38% +1 +2 1.07 35% 1.5 .53 15% .25 47% .12
Jan
24		 Bellarmine A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 9% 60% B A+ F A+ A- A- B- A+ A F F B F F 55% 9% 36% F F C- F F F B- D+ C+
1.48 83% 80% 46% +22 +1 1.48 26% 2.0 .52 11% .33 87% .28 1.44 76% 33% 42% +13 +3 1.34 21% 1.8 .38 8% .27 80% .22
Jan
29		 Stetson D C+ C F F 44% 10% 46% B+ D- D A- C C- C+ A+ B F C+ D- D- D- 43% 13% 44% F F+ F B- D F C- B C
1.11 65% 40% 25% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.3 .38 16% .29 82% .24 1.21 57% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.09 34% 0.9 .32 9% .32 65% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Lipscomb A C+ F A+ A- 33% 5% 62% A A B+ B+ A- C C- A+ B+ F F C F F 59% 5% 36% F F A F C- F B C B
1.29 61% 0% 44% +8 +2 1.22 37% 1.2 .43 18% .27 94% .25 1.37 69% 33% 45% +13 +4 1.34 18% 1.6 .29 8% .19 77% .15
Feb
5		 West Georgia D+ C+ A A- B 45% 11% 43% C+ B D F F F D+ C C- B- B- A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 42% C A+ C D+ C- F B- C+ B-
1.09 63% 50% 39% +7 +2 1.19 26% 0.6 .15 22% .31 72% .22 0.98 50% 20% 21% -16 -2 0.67 30% 1.1 .34 3% .24 71% .17
Feb
7		 Queens D- F+ F A+ C- 26% 19% 55% D- C- F F+ F F A+ C- A F F F B D+ 33% 15% 53% C+ D+ F F+ F F+ B+ F D+
1.04 50% 11% 46% +3 -1 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 20% .45 72% .33 1.32 72% 50% 31% +4 0 1.11 41% 1.2 .50 12% .25 100% .25
Feb
11		 Florida Gulf Coast C F+ A+ C+ C- 29% 11% 61% C+ C- C D D+ B- B- D C F D F F F 42% 32% 26% C F D C- D F F A+ D-
1.11 50% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .39 71% .27 1.24 64% 53% 43% +11 -1 1.21 33% 1.1 .36 11% .46 53% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 0.4 1.6 5th
6th 1.3 2.0 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.2 5.0 1.1 6.2 7th
8th 2.6 6.8 0.2 9.5 8th
9th 0.1 11.2 2.8 0.0 14.2 9th
10th 5.7 14.8 0.3 20.8 10th
11th 12.1 26.2 2.9 41.2 11th
12th 2.4 0.8 0.0 3.2 12th
Total 14.5 32.9 31.6 16.2 4.4 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 4.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.3
7-11 16.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.2
6-12 31.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 31.5
5-13 32.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 32.8
4-14 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 11.9%