Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#17
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#47
Pace66.8#258
Improvement-2.5#324

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#31
First Shot+0.0#176
After Offensive Rebound+8.0#1
Layup/Dunks+1.9#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#124
Freethrows-1.4#263
Improvement-0.6#224

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#12
First Shot+7.4#17
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#130
Layups/Dunks+3.9#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#80
Freethrows+0.1#172
Improvement-1.9#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.9% 2.8% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 6.5% 9.1% 3.5%
Top 4 Seed 28.3% 36.0% 19.8%
Top 6 Seed 54.1% 63.6% 43.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.3% 90.8% 79.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.9% 89.7% 77.6%
Average Seed 5.8 5.4 6.3
.500 or above 94.6% 97.5% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.1% 79.9% 71.8%
Conference Champion 9.9% 11.4% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.7% 1.3%
First Four4.6% 3.2% 6.1%
First Round83.6% 89.5% 77.0%
Second Round63.7% 70.8% 55.9%
Sweet Sixteen31.7% 36.7% 26.1%
Elite Eight13.4% 15.9% 10.6%
Final Four5.5% 6.7% 4.1%
Championship Game2.1% 2.8% 1.4%
National Champion0.7% 1.1% 0.4%

Next Game: Louisville (Home) - 52.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 37 - 10
Quad 25 - 212 - 12
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 194 Mercer W 76-61 97%     1 - 0 +9.9 -0.7 +10.6
  Sat, Nov 8 192 Northern Kentucky W 95-56 96%     2 - 0 +34.0 +20.2 +14.0
  Wed, Nov 12 344 North Florida W 99-66 99%     3 - 0 +18.4 +8.9 +6.9
  Mon, Nov 17 213 Rice W 91-66 97%     4 - 0 +18.7 +16.7 +2.4
  Thu, Nov 20 249 Tennessee St. W 89-60 98%     5 - 0 +21.1 +3.7 +14.0
  Mon, Nov 24 123 Rutgers W 85-60 89%     6 - 0 +27.5 +18.3 +10.4
  Tue, Nov 25 8 Houston W 76-73 37%     7 - 0 +22.7 +25.9 -2.7
  Wed, Nov 26 18 Kansas L 76-81 50%     7 - 1 +11.1 +13.5 -2.5
  Tue, Dec 2 60 @Syracuse L 60-62 65%     7 - 2 +10.2 -4.4 +14.5
  Sat, Dec 6 15 Illinois L 62-75 43%     7 - 3 +5.0 +5.5 -2.2
  Tue, Dec 16 13 Louisville W 78-77 53%    
  Sun, Dec 21 359 Gardner-Webb W 92-59 99.9%   
  Tue, Dec 30 349 South Carolina St. W 88-56 99.8%   
  Sat, Jan 3 20 @Arkansas L 74-76 43%    
  Tue, Jan 6 46 Texas W 78-70 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 14 @Florida L 72-77 33%    
  Tue, Jan 13 39 Texas A&M W 80-73 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 21 Kentucky W 76-72 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 10 @Alabama L 81-86 31%    
  Tue, Jan 27 19 @Georgia L 80-82 42%    
  Sat, Jan 31 26 Auburn W 77-72 67%    
  Tue, Feb 3 57 Mississippi W 75-66 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 21 @Kentucky L 73-75 43%    
  Wed, Feb 11 78 @Mississippi St. W 76-70 70%    
  Sat, Feb 14 31 LSU W 77-71 69%    
  Wed, Feb 18 53 Oklahoma W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Feb 21 11 @Vanderbilt L 74-79 32%    
  Tue, Feb 24 37 @Missouri W 75-74 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 10 Alabama W 84-83 52%    
  Tue, Mar 3 87 @South Carolina W 74-67 74%    
  Sat, Mar 7 11 Vanderbilt W 77-76 53%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 9.9 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 4.4 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.7 4.1 0.7 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 5.3 1.1 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.1 2.4 0.1 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.6 4.0 0.4 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.6 1.3 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.3 2.5 0.2 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.4 0.1 4.5 11th
12th 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.3 3.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.2 6.4 9.7 12.8 14.3 14.7 12.8 9.9 6.2 3.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.3% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 94.9% 1.3    1.2 0.2 0.0
15-3 82.7% 2.9    2.0 0.9 0.1
14-4 49.4% 3.1    1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 17.2% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 5.2 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.4% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 1.9 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.5% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 2.5 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.2% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 3.1 0.4 1.4 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-5 9.9% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 3.8 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.8% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 4.6 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 3.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.7% 99.8% 7.2% 92.6% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.2 4.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 14.3% 99.2% 5.1% 94.1% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.6 4.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
9-9 12.8% 94.7% 3.5% 91.2% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.9 3.0 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.7 94.5%
8-10 9.7% 74.8% 1.8% 73.0% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.0 0.1 2.4 74.3%
7-11 6.4% 37.2% 0.7% 36.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.0 36.8%
6-12 4.2% 9.6% 1.1% 8.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.8 8.6%
5-13 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 1.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.1%
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 85.3% 9.0% 76.4% 5.8 1.9 4.6 9.4 12.5 13.5 12.2 10.7 7.2 4.9 4.1 4.0 0.3 0.0 14.7 83.9%