Preseason Rankings
Mississippi
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#30
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.9#152
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.4% 2.5% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 6.4% 6.5% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 18.7% 19.0% 5.5%
Top 6 Seed 33.2% 33.6% 13.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.6% 62.1% 33.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.7% 60.3% 32.8%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.2
.500 or above 79.9% 80.6% 47.2%
.500 or above in Conference 54.4% 54.9% 31.2%
Conference Champion 4.9% 5.0% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 5.8% 17.7%
First Four5.1% 5.1% 5.3%
First Round59.2% 59.8% 30.8%
Second Round42.2% 42.7% 18.0%
Sweet Sixteen19.8% 20.0% 8.4%
Elite Eight8.2% 8.3% 3.1%
Final Four3.4% 3.4% 1.4%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 25 - 211 - 12
Quad 32 - 013 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 243   SE Louisiana W 82-60 98%    
  Nov 07, 2025 348   Louisiana Monroe W 86-57 99.7%   
  Nov 11, 2025 53   Memphis W 79-72 73%    
  Nov 14, 2025 223   Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-60 97%    
  Nov 18, 2025 276   Austin Peay W 82-59 98%    
  Nov 25, 2025 32   Iowa W 77-76 51%    
  Dec 02, 2025 56   Miami (FL) W 77-70 74%    
  Dec 06, 2025 8   @ St. John's L 71-78 26%    
  Dec 13, 2025 281   Southern Miss W 85-64 97%    
  Dec 17, 2025 325   Alabama A&M W 87-63 98%    
  Dec 20, 2025 31   North Carolina St. W 70-69 50%    
  Dec 29, 2025 326   Alcorn St. W 81-54 99%    
  Jan 03, 2026 47   @ Oklahoma L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 07, 2026 17   Arkansas W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 10, 2026 37   Missouri W 77-73 62%    
  Jan 14, 2026 51   @ Georgia W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 17, 2026 33   @ Mississippi St. L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 20, 2026 22   Auburn W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 24, 2026 7   @ Kentucky L 73-81 25%    
  Jan 31, 2026 41   Vanderbilt W 78-73 65%    
  Feb 03, 2026 16   @ Tennessee L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 07, 2026 36   @ Texas L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 11, 2026 18   Alabama W 83-82 51%    
  Feb 14, 2026 33   Mississippi St. W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 18, 2026 35   @ Texas A&M L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 21, 2026 5   Florida L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 25, 2026 52   LSU W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 28, 2026 22   @ Auburn L 71-76 34%    
  Mar 04, 2026 41   @ Vanderbilt L 75-76 46%    
  Mar 07, 2026 70   South Carolina W 73-64 77%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 4.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.2 0.9 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 3.7 1.3 0.1 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.4 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 4.1 1.0 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.2 0.1 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.2 0.5 6.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 3.6 1.2 0.0 6.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.2 0.1 6.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 0.7 0.1 5.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.1 4.5 15th
16th 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.3 16th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.6 6.6 8.4 10.2 10.8 11.3 10.6 9.7 8.2 6.2 3.9 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.2% 0.5    0.5 0.1
16-2 83.4% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 63.0% 1.6    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.0% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.3% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.5% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 2.2 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.9% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 2.9 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.2% 99.9% 13.5% 86.4% 3.8 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 8.2% 99.7% 8.8% 90.9% 4.9 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 9.7% 98.1% 5.8% 92.3% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.0%
10-8 10.6% 94.6% 2.5% 92.1% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.4 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.6 94.5%
9-9 11.3% 85.2% 1.5% 83.8% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.0 1.7 85.0%
8-10 10.8% 57.2% 0.9% 56.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.3 0.0 4.6 56.8%
7-11 10.2% 26.6% 0.4% 26.2% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.0 7.5 26.3%
6-12 8.4% 7.7% 0.2% 7.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 7.8 7.6%
5-13 6.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.9%
4-14 4.6% 4.6
3-15 2.9% 2.9
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 61.6% 4.5% 57.0% 6.2 2.4 4.0 5.8 6.5 7.0 7.5 7.3 6.8 5.6 5.2 3.3 0.2 38.4 59.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0