Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#69
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#102
Pace73.5#85
Improvement+3.0#24

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#104
First Shot+1.9#126
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#131
Layup/Dunks+6.4#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#248
Freethrows+1.0#121
Improvement+0.2#164

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#44
First Shot+3.8#64
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#83
Layups/Dunks+1.9#111
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#238
Freethrows+0.5#151
Improvement+2.8#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 1.7% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.3% 39.3% 27.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.6% 10.6% 2.8%
Average Seed 11.1 10.3 11.2
.500 or above 89.2% 96.6% 88.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 97.0% 94.5%
Conference Champion 35.5% 45.7% 34.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.5% 3.1% 1.3%
First Round27.6% 37.8% 26.4%
Second Round8.1% 13.9% 7.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 3.5% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 10.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 45 - 9
Quad 38 - 313 - 12
Quad 47 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 100 San Francisco W 76-70 72%     1 - 0 +8.0 -0.1 +7.8
  Tue, Nov 11 57 @Mississippi L 77-83 32%     1 - 1 +7.0 +13.6 -6.8
  Sun, Nov 16 132 UNLV L 78-92 81%     1 - 2 -15.1 -6.6 -6.8
  Thu, Nov 20 7 Purdue L 71-80 13%     1 - 3 +11.3 +7.7 +3.3
  Fri, Nov 21 50 Wake Forest L 68-69 41%     1 - 4 +9.5 +3.1 +6.5
  Wed, Nov 26 143 Southern Illinois W 74-58 83%     2 - 4 +14.2 -0.1 +14.3
  Wed, Dec 3 244 New Orleans W 86-70 92%     3 - 4 +8.4 +8.2 +0.2
  Sat, Dec 6 34 Baylor W 78-71 43%     4 - 4 +17.0 +5.9 +11.0
  Sat, Dec 13 13 @Louisville L 74-87 11%    
  Wed, Dec 17 11 Vanderbilt L 76-83 24%    
  Sat, Dec 20 78 @Mississippi St. L 75-77 42%    
  Mon, Dec 22 276 Alabama St. W 84-67 94%    
  Wed, Dec 31 144 North Texas W 73-63 83%    
  Sat, Jan 3 213 @Rice W 77-68 78%    
  Sun, Jan 11 122 @Florida Atlantic W 77-74 59%    
  Wed, Jan 14 160 Temple W 83-71 86%    
  Sun, Jan 18 277 Texas San Antonio W 83-66 94%    
  Wed, Jan 21 89 @Tulsa L 75-76 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 91 @Wichita St. L 72-73 48%    
  Thu, Jan 29 122 Florida Atlantic W 80-71 78%    
  Sun, Feb 1 187 Tulane W 82-69 88%    
  Thu, Feb 5 110 @UAB W 77-76 55%    
  Sun, Feb 8 181 Charlotte W 77-64 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 144 @North Texas W 70-66 65%    
  Sat, Feb 14 51 @Utah St. L 73-78 31%    
  Thu, Feb 19 79 @South Florida L 78-80 43%    
  Sun, Feb 22 110 UAB W 80-73 75%    
  Thu, Feb 26 91 Wichita St. W 75-70 68%    
  Sun, Mar 1 266 @East Carolina W 80-69 83%    
  Thu, Mar 5 79 South Florida W 81-77 64%    
  Sun, Mar 8 187 @Tulane W 79-72 74%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.5 8.7 10.7 7.7 3.5 1.0 35.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.1 7.9 6.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 6.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.8 2.9 0.4 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.1 7.9 11.0 14.2 15.6 15.7 12.8 7.9 3.5 1.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.7% 3.5    3.4 0.0
16-2 97.1% 7.7    7.0 0.7 0.0
15-3 83.6% 10.7    7.8 2.7 0.2
14-4 55.3% 8.7    4.2 3.6 0.9 0.1
13-5 22.2% 3.5    0.7 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.5% 35.5 24.2 8.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 82.4% 55.4% 27.0% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 60.6%
17-1 3.5% 67.2% 49.4% 17.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.1 35.2%
16-2 7.9% 52.5% 43.3% 9.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.8 16.3%
15-3 12.8% 42.3% 37.4% 4.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.4 1.0 0.0 7.4 7.7%
14-4 15.7% 33.8% 31.9% 1.9% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.0 1.8 0.1 10.4 2.8%
13-5 15.6% 26.2% 25.7% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.1 11.5 0.7%
12-6 14.2% 21.6% 21.3% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 1.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.2 0.4%
11-7 11.0% 15.8% 15.8% 12.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.3
10-8 7.9% 10.6% 10.6% 12.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.1
9-9 5.1% 6.9% 6.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.7
8-10 2.9% 4.4% 4.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
7-11 1.4% 3.8% 3.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.3% 25.7% 2.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.7 12.8 8.7 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 71.7 3.6%