Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +20.6 9
Expected Predictive Rating +21.4 9
Pace 64.1 302
Improvement -3.3 313

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A #3 A A A- C- D+
Defense B+ #22 B B+ C+ A+ A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 262 72% 1 +3.6 64
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 112 45% 29 +3.0 46
Three Pointers 40% 201 39% 19 +2.7 91
1st FG Attempt 1.21 5 +9.3 5
Second Chance 37.5% 21 1.18 31 0.44 16
Turnovers 13.0% 12
Freethrows 0.29 240 74% 136 0.21 209
Total Offense +12.9 3

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% 360 57% 146 +6.9 16
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 29 38% 169 -2.5 339
Three Pointers 46% 55 30% 42 +0.2 171
1st FG Attempt 0.93 46 +4.6 47
Second Chance 22.6% 6 1.07 262 0.24 31
Turnovers 18.1% 107
Freethrows 0.20 2 67% 13 0.13 2
Total Defense +7.7 22

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.6 267 -1.6 11
Shot Type Accuracy +9.8 1 -3.0 66
Possession Length 17.0 139 18.8 351
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 144 0.11 25
Improvement -2.5 #311 -0.8 #241

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1% 2% 1%
#1 Seed 14% 19% 7%
Top 2 Seed 48% 58% 34%
Top 4 Seed 93% 97% 88%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 99%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 2.7 2.4 3.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 7% 11% 2%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round97% 98% 96%
Sweet Sixteen68% 70% 65%
Elite Eight36% 40% 32%
Final Four17% 19% 15%
Championship Game8% 9% 7%
National Champion4% 5% 3%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 56.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 66 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 7
Quad 26 - 016 - 7
Quad 37 - 024 - 7
Quad 42 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 273 Evansville W 82 - 51 99% +18  91% 1 - 0 A +22 A+ +14 A B- A+ A +11 A+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 7 143 Oakland W 87 - 77 97% +3  68% 2 - 0 B +8 B+ +7 B- D+ A+ C+ +1 C+ D+ C-
 Thu, Nov 13 17 @Alabama W 87 - 80 48% +2  60% 3 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +19 A A C A- +9 B A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 72 Akron W 97 - 79 92% +12  87% 4 - 0 A+ +23 A+ +18 A- A+ C+ B- +4 A+ F+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 86 Memphis W 80 - 71 90% +1  55% 5 - 0 A- +15 A+ +15 A+ D+ A C+ +1 B+ C- D+
 Fri, Nov 21 16 Texas Tech W 86 - 56 59% +17  92% 6 - 0 A+ +48 A+ +23 A+ A- B- A+ +27 A+ B+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 326 Eastern Illinois W 109 - 62 99% +25  86% 7 - 0 A+ +34 A+ +29 A+ A+ A B- +4 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 122 @Rutgers W 81 - 65 91% +12  92% 8 - 0 1 - 0 A +22 A+ +14 B A- A- A- +9 D A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 8 Iowa St. L 58 - 81 61% -9  16% 8 - 1 D+ -5 D+ -3 D+ B+ C D+ -4 F A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 10 71 Minnesota W 85 - 57 92% +15  99% 9 - 1 2 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +18 A+ A+ A A+ +17 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 85 Marquette W 79 - 59 93% +16  100% 10 - 1 A+ +24 A +12 A+ A+ C- A+ +13 A+ F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 20 28 Auburn W 88 - 60 70% +13  94% 11 - 1 A+ +43 A+ +23 A+ A+ B A+ +22 A+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 147 Kent St. W 101 - 60 97% +24  95% 12 - 1 A+ +39 A+ +16 A+ C+ A A+ +20 A A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 33 @Wisconsin W 89 - 73 62% +8  71% 13 - 1 3 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +18 B A A+ A+ +15 A+ C- B+
 Wed, Jan 7 46 Washington W 81 - 73 87% +14  99% 14 - 1 4 - 0 A- +16 B+ +8 A+ A+ F+ B+ +8 B- A B+
 Sat, Jan 10 109 Penn St. W 93 - 85 96% +5  80% 15 - 1 5 - 0 B +9 A+ +20 A A- A+ F -11 F F+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 25 Iowa W 79 - 72 77% -1  31% 16 - 1 6 - 0 A +20 A+ +16 A+ C A+ B +5 D+ C A
 Sat, Jan 17 47 @USC W 69 - 64 73% -2  32% 17 - 1 7 - 0 A +19 C+ +3 C+ C- A+ A+ +16 A+ F B
 Tue, Jan 20 34 @UCLA L 67 - 69 62% +2  65% 17 - 2 7 - 1 A- +15 A +13 C+ A+ A+ B- +2 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 6 Illinois L 82 - 88 58% +3  69% 17 - 3 7 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +21 A+ F A+ D- -9 F+ F B
 Tue, Jan 27 29 @Indiana L 67 - 72 61% -5  18% 17 - 4 7 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +8 A B C+ B +4 B- C C-
 Sun, Feb 1 104 @Maryland W 93 - 63 89% +18  95% 18 - 4 8 - 3 A+ +37 A+ +29 A- A+ A A +11 A+ B- C+
 Sat, Feb 7 80 Oregon W 68 - 64 93% +3  76% 19 - 4 9 - 3 B- +8 C- -2 B- B- F A +10 C A+ B+
 Tue, Feb 10 15 @Nebraska W 80 - 77 OT 47% +11  93% 20 - 4 10 - 3 A+ +24 A- +10 C A- A+ A+ +14 A- A+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 25 @Iowa W 72 - 70 56%
 Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 77 - 79 42%
 Fri, Feb 20 29 Indiana W 80 - 71 80%
 Thu, Feb 26 10 Michigan St. W 73 - 69 63%
 Sun, Mar 1 39 @Ohio St. W 78 - 74 64%
 Wed, Mar 4 64 @Northwestern W 78 - 69 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 33 Wisconsin W 82 - 73 81%
Totals 25 - 6 15 - 5 +21 A +13 A A A- B+ +8 B B+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A+ A- A- A+ 36% 24% 40% D+ A B+ B+ A A- C- C+ C- B+ C+ C B+ B 27% 27% 46% A B A C- B+ C+ A A A+
1.27 72% 45% 39% +10 -1 1.21 38% 1.2 .44 13% .29 74% .21 0.98 57% 38% 30% -3 -2 0.93 23% 1.1 .24 18% .20 67% .19
Nov
4		 Evansville A+ A- D+ A+ A 27% 23% 50% C- A B+ C- B- A+ C A B A B- A+ A+ A+ 17% 33% 50% A A+ F B- F D- A+ A+ A+
1.33 69% 36% 46% +12 -1 1.23 38% 1.0 .38 11% .29 81% .24 0.83 56% 24% 15% -19 -3 0.58 42% 1.0 .42 16% .08 50% .04
Nov
7		 Oakland B+ A+ D+ C B 28% 22% 50% D+ B- D C- D+ A+ C D- C- C+ F A C+ D+ 22% 33% 45% A+ C+ C- D+ D+ C- A+ C A+
1.24 82% 38% 33% +7 -1 1.13 29% 0.9 .26 7% .23 67% .15 1.10 83% 28% 32% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.2 .37 13% .20 75% .15
Nov
13		 Alabama A+ B- C+ A+ A+ 32% 34% 34% D A A+ D+ A C A+ B A+ A- C A D B- 21% 15% 65% A B A+ A A+ D- A+ D A+
1.26 59% 39% 44% +6 -2 1.09 48% 0.8 .40 15% .39 70% .27 1.16 62% 33% 38% +4 0 1.08 18% 1.0 .18 9% .16 80% .13
Nov
16		 Akron A+ A+ D+ B A 39% 24% 37% D+ A- A+ A+ A+ C+ A B+ A+ B- C- A+ C- A 15% 35% 51% A+ A+ C+ F F+ D C- B+ C
1.34 75% 33% 37% +7 0 1.16 58% 1.3 .73 18% .39 78% .30 1.09 63% 26% 36% -2 -4 0.91 32% 1.7 .53 14% .27 71% .19
Nov
20		 Memphis A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 29% 22% 49% C- A+ A F D+ A F A+ F C+ C B- A+ B+ 43% 24% 33% C- B+ D+ C C- D+ F B F
1.18 75% 33% 41% +9 -1 1.18 42% 0.6 .24 16% .19 82% .16 1.05 59% 33% 24% -6 0 0.90 39% 1.1 .45 18% .45 68% .31
Nov
21		 Texas Tech A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 52% 24% F A+ A+ C- A- B- C C C A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 16% 22% 63% A- A+ A+ F B+ D+ B- A+ A-
1.30 75% 54% 58% +21 -5 1.34 38% 0.9 .35 17% .27 67% .18 0.84 63% 27% 22% -13 -2 0.73 21% 1.3 .29 14% .24 57% .14
Nov
28		 Eastern Illinois A+ A+ B A+ A+ 36% 25% 39% D- A+ A A+ A+ A D A+ C B- F F A+ F 27% 31% 41% B- F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A A+
1.52 85% 43% 50% +20 -1 1.41 46% 1.5 .67 14% .29 89% .26 0.86 79% 50% 24% +3 -2 1.04 13% 0.8 .10 24% .16 67% .11
Dec
2		 Rutgers A+ A F B B 34% 18% 48% C+ B B A A- A- A+ A+ A+ A- A- D+ F D- 33% 37% 29% B D A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A A+
1.25 71% 22% 38% +4 0 1.10 37% 1.2 .43 14% .36 85% .30 1.00 47% 42% 47% +4 -3 1.04 19% 0.8 .16 14% .20 64% .13
Dec
6		 Iowa St. D+ A+ D- F D+ 31% 35% 33% D D+ A+ D- B+ C B F D- D+ F F F F 24% 36% 40% A+ F C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A+
0.89 80% 29% 13% -7 -2 0.83 42% 0.9 .36 23% .28 43% .12 1.24 75% 61% 50% +22 -3 1.40 38% 0.6 .24 18% .11 67% .08
Dec
10		 Minnesota A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 32% 34% 34% D A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+ A+ B- C A+ A+ 27% 27% 45% A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ D A D A-
1.30 73% 50% 38% +11 -2 1.19 44% 1.1 .50 14% .39 68% .27 0.87 57% 36% 22% -9 -2 0.80 14% 1.2 .16 14% .27 73% .20
Dec
13		 Marquette A A+ B C A+ 34% 21% 45% C- A+ A+ B+ A+ C- B- B+ B A+ A A+ A- A+ 24% 22% 54% A+ A+ D- D F+ A- B- D- C+
1.21 88% 40% 33% +10 0 1.21 46% 1.1 .50 21% .29 80% .23 0.91 45% 20% 28% -12 -1 0.76 37% 1.1 .39 18% .28 73% .21
Dec
20		 Auburn A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 35% 18% 47% C+ A+ A A+ A+ B F A+ D+ A+ B+ D A+ A+ 29% 25% 45% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A- A+
1.35 76% 56% 39% +13 0 1.29 39% 1.7 .65 17% .18 100% .18 0.92 53% 46% 26% -5 -1 0.90 29% 0.5 .13 15% .29 69% .20
Dec
29		 Kent St. A+ A A+ A- A+ 25% 26% 49% F A+ F A+ C+ A D A+ B- A+ F A A B+ 18% 36% 46% A+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D A+
1.33 71% 73% 39% +17 -2 1.32 21% 1.5 .32 11% .28 89% .25 0.79 70% 25% 27% -7 -3 0.80 15% 0.8 .13 20% .23 79% .18
Jan
3		 Wisconsin A+ A+ C+ D- A- 28% 36% 36% F B A A A A+ B- D+ C+ A+ A- F A+ A+ 40% 18% 42% B A+ C+ D+ C- B+ F D F
1.24 75% 43% 29% +4 -3 1.03 33% 1.2 .40 10% .29 68% .20 1.02 50% 78% 14% -8 0 0.86 30% 1.2 .36 15% .43 81% .35
Jan
7		 Washington B+ A+ A D- A+ 39% 33% 27% C A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ D- D+ D B+ D- B C- C+ 30% 32% 38% B+ B- A+ C A B+ A C+ A
1.15 80% 47% 29% +9 -2 1.18 41% 1.4 .56 20% .21 67% .14 1.03 69% 35% 35% +3 -2 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 18% .21 75% .16
Jan
10		 Penn St. A+ A+ B- B+ A+ 34% 17% 48% C A D+ A+ A- A+ C F F+ F F B- F F 33% 16% 51% C+ F A+ F F+ C+ A+ F A
1.39 80% 40% 39% +12 0 1.26 26% 1.9 .48 4% .22 43% .09 1.27 76% 38% 42% +13 0 1.27 21% 2.2 .46 15% .18 90% .16
Jan
14		 Iowa A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 38% 32% 30% D- A+ C- B- C A+ A A+ A+ B F+ C- F D- 24% 28% 48% A+ D+ A+ F C A A+ A+ A+
1.23 78% 40% 43% +12 -1 1.23 25% 1.0 .25 14% .40 86% .34 1.12 73% 46% 45% +14 -2 1.26 20% 1.8 .36 20% .20 60% .12
Jan
17		 USC C+ C+ F B- C+ 41% 20% 39% B- C+ F A+ C- A+ A D+ A- A+ D- F A+ A+ 37% 27% 35% B- A+ A F F B A+ A+ A+
1.00 57% 20% 35% -3 0 0.96 17% 1.3 .22 12% .36 73% .26 0.93 68% 50% 6% -8 -1 0.84 28% 1.7 .47 19% .25 36% .09
Jan
20		 UCLA A F A+ D C+ 28% 21% 51% C- C+ A A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B- F F+ F F 31% 27% 42% C F A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+
1.15 46% 60% 29% -2 -1 0.96 39% 1.2 .48 14% .14 86% .12 1.18 87% 46% 45% +18 -1 1.35 19% 0.5 .10 17% .06 67% .04
Jan
24		 Illinois A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 36% 31% C A+ F F F A+ C+ A+ B D- A+ F F F 17% 12% 71% A- F+ D F+ F B F A- D-
1.29 78% 55% 41% +16 -2 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 5% .18 82% .15 1.39 29% 60% 50% +15 0 1.31 45% 1.4 .62 16% .41 73% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Indiana B+ C- A+ A- A 38% 23% 38% B- A B- B+ B C+ C- F F B D F C B- 27% 7% 66% B- B- A+ F C C- C- B+ C
1.09 50% 55% 39% +4 0 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 16% .29 53% .16 1.17 67% 67% 34% +5 +1 1.14 20% 1.7 .33 13% .35 74% .26
Feb
1		 Maryland A+ B- B+ A A 33% 15% 52% C A- A A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A A+ B+ B- A+ 36% 27% 36% B+ A+ A+ F B- C+ F D F
1.44 60% 43% 42% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.7 .66 12% .44 80% .35 0.98 38% 33% 31% -10 -1 0.80 24% 1.5 .35 19% .48 76% .36
Feb
7		 Oregon C- A- A F+ B- 32% 27% 41% C- B- C- A B- F A+ C+ A+ A F F A+ C 29% 19% 52% B+ C A+ B+ A+ B+ B B- B
1.03 64% 50% 28% +2 -1 1.02 28% 1.1 .31 21% .48 76% .36 0.97 79% 67% 20% +1 0 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 20% .30 69% .21
Feb
10		 Nebraska A- A+ D+ D- C 11% 28% 61% D+ C A+ C- A- A+ A F B- A+ B+ A D A- 29% 15% 56% B+ A- A+ B A+ A D- A+ C-
1.05 86% 33% 28% -3 -3 0.89 40% 0.8 .33 14% .31 55% .17 1.01 56% 25% 39% +2 0 1.05 15% 1.0 .15 18% .32 65% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.6 4.4 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 6.4 14.4 1.9 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.4 13.6 4.2 22.3 3rd
4th 1.4 11.5 7.7 0.3 20.9 4th
5th 0.5 7.3 8.5 0.7 16.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 3.9 0.3 6.2 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 0.4 2.3 7th
8th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.7 4.6 13.1 25.2 28.5 21.5 6.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 70.0% 4.4    0.9 2.8 0.7 0.1
16-4 11.9% 2.6    0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 1.1 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 6.3% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 1.6 3.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 21.5% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 1.9 6.1 11.1 3.9 0.4 100.0%
15-5 28.5% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 2.4 3.6 12.4 10.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 25.2% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 3.0 0.9 6.2 10.7 6.2 1.1 0.1 100.0%
13-7 13.1% 100.0% 6.2% 93.8% 3.7 0.2 1.3 4.1 4.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 4.6% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 100.0%
11-9 0.7% 100.0% 100.0% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 2.7 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 1.3 73.7 25.7 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 100.0% 1.6 45.5 52.4 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0% 100.0% 1.7 42.1 50.3 7.7