Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#61
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#84
Pace66.5#266
Improvement-1.6#294

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#50
First Shot+4.3#68
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#48
Layup/Dunks+5.8#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#251
Freethrows+0.8#139
Improvement+1.0#100

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#101
First Shot+3.3#74
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#254
Layups/Dunks+0.0#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#43
Freethrows-0.5#222
Improvement-2.6#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 15.3% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.9% 15.2% 5.2%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 9.6
.500 or above 51.7% 52.5% 22.7%
.500 or above in Conference 19.1% 19.4% 9.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 6.8% 12.5%
First Four4.2% 4.2% 1.9%
First Round13.0% 13.3% 4.2%
Second Round6.2% 6.3% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 12
Quad 24 - 36 - 15
Quad 34 - 110 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 324 Mercyhurst W 70-47 97%     1 - 0 +10.5 -5.6 +16.8
  Fri, Nov 7 253 Boston University W 76-52 94%     2 - 0 +15.9 +7.5 +12.2
  Mon, Nov 10 323 Cleveland St. W 110-63 97%     3 - 0 +34.6 +23.2 +9.0
  Fri, Nov 14 134 @DePaul W 81-79 66%     4 - 0 +6.8 +14.2 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 21 23 Virginia L 78-83 29%     4 - 1 +9.9 +9.2 +0.7
  Sun, Nov 23 87 South Carolina W 79-77 61%     5 - 1 +8.1 +16.5 -8.2
  Thu, Nov 27 44 Oklahoma St. L 81-86 42%     5 - 2 +6.1 +8.9 -2.5
  Wed, Dec 3 30 @Wisconsin L 73-85 23%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +4.6 +8.3 -3.8
  Sat, Dec 6 24 Ohio St. L 82-86 39%     5 - 4 0 - 2 +7.7 +12.2 -4.4
  Sat, Dec 13 312 Jackson St. W 82-62 97%    
  Tue, Dec 16 211 Valparaiso W 78-63 92%    
  Sat, Dec 20 55 Butler L 77-78 46%    
  Tue, Dec 30 313 Howard W 85-65 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 102 Minnesota W 72-65 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 12 @Michigan St. L 64-76 13%    
  Sun, Jan 11 123 @Rutgers W 74-71 63%    
  Wed, Jan 14 15 Illinois L 74-80 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 48 Nebraska W 77-76 54%    
  Wed, Jan 21 35 @USC L 75-82 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 27 @UCLA L 68-76 24%    
  Thu, Jan 29 96 Penn St. W 80-73 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 49 Washington W 76-75 55%    
  Wed, Feb 4 15 @Illinois L 71-83 14%    
  Sun, Feb 8 25 @Iowa L 67-76 22%    
  Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan L 70-84 10%    
  Sat, Feb 14 48 @Nebraska L 74-79 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 93 Maryland W 78-72 71%    
  Tue, Feb 24 28 @Indiana L 71-79 24%    
  Sat, Feb 28 81 Oregon W 77-72 67%    
  Wed, Mar 4 7 Purdue L 70-78 23%    
  Sat, Mar 7 102 @Minnesota W 69-68 54%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 4.3 1.9 0.1 8.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 4.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 9.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.4 1.1 0.0 11.2 12th
13th 0.2 3.1 6.0 2.4 0.1 11.8 13th
14th 0.1 1.9 5.9 3.4 0.4 0.0 11.7 14th
15th 0.0 1.0 4.5 3.9 0.7 0.0 10.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.7 1.0 0.0 8.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.6 1.0 0.1 6.0 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.3 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.6 7.2 11.4 14.5 15.5 14.8 12.0 8.8 5.5 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 33.3% 0.0    0.0
16-4 0.0%
15-5 4.5% 0.0    0.0
14-6 1.4% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.5% 98.6% 2.0% 96.6% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
13-7 1.3% 96.6% 0.3% 96.3% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 96.6%
12-8 2.9% 92.0% 0.7% 91.3% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 91.9%
11-9 5.5% 73.0% 0.6% 72.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.5 72.8%
10-10 8.8% 45.3% 0.3% 44.9% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.0 4.8 45.1%
9-11 12.0% 16.0% 0.1% 15.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.1 15.9%
8-12 14.8% 3.6% 0.1% 3.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 14.3 3.5%
7-13 15.5% 0.2% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 15.5 0.2%
6-14 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 14.5
5-15 11.4% 11.4
4-16 7.2% 7.2
3-17 3.6% 3.6
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 15.0% 0.2% 14.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.5 0.2 0.0 85.0 14.9%