Northwestern
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#55
Expected Predictive Rating+9.8#55
Pace63.4#315
Improvement+2.6#67

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#90
First Shot+3.7#75
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#208
Layup/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#234
Freethrows+2.1#67
Improvement+1.8#83

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#28
First Shot+3.6#71
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#8
Layups/Dunks+1.2#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#214
Freethrows+0.4#154
Improvement+0.9#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 2.1% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.7% 36.1% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.2% 35.6% 16.8%
Average Seed 9.3 9.2 9.5
.500 or above 78.4% 87.0% 64.8%
.500 or above in Conference 24.2% 32.3% 11.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 2.6% 8.7%
First Four7.8% 9.1% 5.6%
First Round24.7% 31.4% 14.1%
Second Round10.6% 14.0% 5.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 3.4% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Home) - 61.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 10
Quad 24 - 48 - 14
Quad 35 - 113 - 15
Quad 45 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 296   Lehigh W 90-46 96%     1 - 0 +33.6 +16.0 +19.2
  Nov 09, 2024 78   @ Dayton L 66-71 50%     1 - 1 +5.0 -2.5 +7.3
  Nov 12, 2024 143   Illinois-Chicago W 83-74 86%     2 - 1 +7.7 +6.1 +1.3
  Nov 15, 2024 344   Eastern Illinois W 67-58 OT 98%     3 - 1 -5.5 -5.0 +0.2
  Nov 19, 2024 180   Montana St. W 72-69 89%     4 - 1 -0.6 +4.5 -4.8
  Nov 22, 2024 203   Pepperdine W 68-50 91%     5 - 1 +13.1 -2.9 +17.1
  Nov 28, 2024 84   Butler L 69-71 63%     5 - 2 +4.7 +1.8 +2.8
  Nov 29, 2024 99   UNLV W 66-61 69%     6 - 2 +9.9 +3.4 +7.2
  Dec 03, 2024 50   @ Iowa L 79-80 37%     6 - 3 0 - 1 +12.4 +8.0 +4.3
  Dec 06, 2024 9   Illinois W 70-66 OT 29%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +19.9 +0.3 +19.3
  Dec 15, 2024 104   Georgia Tech W 71-60 73%     8 - 3 +14.8 +1.1 +13.7
  Dec 21, 2024 106   DePaul W 84-64 81%     9 - 3 +20.8 +9.0 +11.5
  Dec 29, 2024 200   Northeastern W 85-60 91%     10 - 3 +20.4 +19.7 +3.4
  Jan 02, 2025 51   @ Penn St. L 80-84 38%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +9.3 +10.2 -0.7
  Jan 05, 2025 10   @ Purdue L 61-79 17%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +2.4 +0.9 +0.2
  Jan 12, 2025 12   Michigan St. L 68-78 34%     10 - 6 1 - 4 +4.4 +3.6 +0.6
  Jan 16, 2025 25   Maryland W 76-74 OT 43%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +14.0 +4.5 +9.3
  Jan 19, 2025 11   @ Michigan L 76-80 OT 17%     11 - 7 2 - 5 +16.0 +5.4 +11.0
  Jan 22, 2025 56   Indiana W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 26, 2025 9   @ Illinois L 67-78 13%    
  Jan 29, 2025 66   Rutgers W 72-68 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 18   Wisconsin L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 04, 2025 61   USC W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 95   @ Washington W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 11, 2025 28   @ Oregon L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 16, 2025 52   Nebraska W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 20, 2025 36   @ Ohio St. L 65-70 30%    
  Feb 25, 2025 98   @ Minnesota W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 28, 2025 50   Iowa W 78-76 59%    
  Mar 03, 2025 31   UCLA L 64-65 51%    
  Mar 08, 2025 25   @ Maryland L 66-73 24%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.1 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.4 1.5 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.1 3.7 3.7 0.3 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 6.0 1.5 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.1 4.6 4.8 0.3 9.8 11th
12th 1.7 7.2 1.3 10.2 12th
13th 0.3 5.0 5.0 0.2 10.5 13th
14th 0.1 2.1 6.3 1.4 9.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 4.5 3.5 0.2 8.8 15th
16th 0.4 2.9 4.0 0.8 8.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.9 17th
18th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.9 18th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.4 6.7 11.8 17.5 19.7 17.0 12.3 7.7 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 4.3% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.9% 97.8% 5.4% 92.5% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.7%
12-8 3.1% 98.0% 2.6% 95.4% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
11-9 7.7% 86.8% 2.2% 84.6% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.4 1.0 86.5%
10-10 12.3% 74.4% 1.3% 73.1% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.4 3.0 1.6 0.0 3.1 74.0%
9-11 17.0% 37.1% 0.2% 36.9% 10.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.3 0.3 10.7 37.0%
8-12 19.7% 11.4% 0.4% 11.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 0.3 17.5 11.0%
7-13 17.5% 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 17.3 1.0%
6-14 11.8% 11.8
5-15 6.7% 6.7
4-16 2.4% 2.4
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.7% 0.6% 28.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 5.2 5.8 6.4 6.8 0.8 71.3 28.2%