UCLA
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#17
Expected Predictive Rating+18.0#14
Pace64.1#307
Improvement+1.1#107

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#74
First Shot+2.3#114
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#85
Layup/Dunks+1.4#127
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#245
Freethrows-0.1#187
Improvement+0.7#121

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#3
First Shot+4.7#46
After Offensive Rebounds+6.2#1
Layups/Dunks+1.7#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#154
Freethrows+1.8#62
Improvement+0.4#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.7% 5.7% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 16.5% 16.5% 5.2%
Top 4 Seed 45.6% 45.6% 22.4%
Top 6 Seed 69.9% 70.0% 43.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.2% 94.2% 84.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.3% 93.3% 83.3%
Average Seed 4.9 4.9 6.3
.500 or above 99.0% 99.0% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 92.7% 89.6%
Conference Champion 26.0% 26.0% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 3.0%
First Round93.3% 93.3% 82.1%
Second Round72.0% 72.1% 55.2%
Sweet Sixteen38.7% 38.8% 24.6%
Elite Eight17.7% 17.8% 9.7%
Final Four7.8% 7.8% 0.7%
Championship Game3.2% 3.2% 0.7%
National Champion1.3% 1.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 39 - 7
Quad 25 - 214 - 9
Quad 33 - 017 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 288   Rider W 85-50 98%     1 - 0 +25.3 +14.9 +13.4
  Nov 08, 2024 71   New Mexico L 64-72 76%     1 - 1 -0.2 -10.3 +10.6
  Nov 11, 2024 252   Boston University W 71-40 97%     2 - 1 +22.8 -7.8 +29.5
  Nov 15, 2024 246   Lehigh W 85-45 97%     3 - 1 +32.2 +12.0 +23.2
  Nov 20, 2024 231   Idaho St. W 84-70 97%     4 - 1 +7.2 +19.3 -10.4
  Nov 22, 2024 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-47 98%     5 - 1 +23.9 +9.1 +16.8
  Nov 26, 2024 210   Southern Utah W 88-43 96%     6 - 1 +39.6 +10.3 +28.5
  Dec 03, 2024 96   Washington W 69-58 87%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +13.6 +4.8 +9.7
  Dec 08, 2024 23   @ Oregon W 73-71 42%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +19.0 +11.3 +7.8
  Dec 14, 2024 21   Arizona W 57-54 53%     9 - 1 +17.3 -3.7 +21.3
  Dec 17, 2024 340   Prairie View W 88-59 99.7%   
  Dec 21, 2024 18   North Carolina W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 28, 2024 3   Gonzaga L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 52   @ Nebraska W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 07, 2025 20   Michigan W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 10, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 67-69 41%    
  Jan 13, 2025 62   @ Rutgers W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 17, 2025 43   Iowa W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 21, 2025 35   Wisconsin W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 24, 2025 96   @ Washington W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 27, 2025 80   @ USC W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 30, 2025 23   Oregon W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 04, 2025 14   Michigan St. W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 31   Penn St. W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 11, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 14, 2025 46   @ Indiana W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 18, 2025 114   Minnesota W 68-53 91%    
  Feb 23, 2025 39   Ohio St. W 69-63 72%    
  Feb 28, 2025 22   @ Purdue L 66-68 42%    
  Mar 03, 2025 59   @ Northwestern W 63-60 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 80   USC W 72-61 84%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.4 7.4 6.2 3.6 1.4 0.3 26.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 5.3 6.2 2.8 0.6 0.1 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.3 5.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 3.4 0.7 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.0 1.4 0.1 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 0.8 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.4 9.2 12.1 14.1 14.6 13.7 10.4 6.8 3.6 1.4 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.0
18-2 98.3% 3.6    3.4 0.2 0.0
17-3 91.6% 6.2    5.1 1.1 0.1
16-4 70.7% 7.4    4.2 2.6 0.5 0.0
15-5 39.4% 5.4    1.7 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-6 11.3% 1.7    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.0% 26.0 16.2 6.7 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.4% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 100.0%
18-2 3.6% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 1.8 1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.8% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 2.2 1.6 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.4% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.8 1.0 3.1 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.7% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 3.5 0.5 1.9 4.5 4.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.6% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 4.5 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.1 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.1% 99.7% 9.0% 90.7% 5.4 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.5 3.9 3.4 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 12.1% 98.9% 5.8% 93.1% 6.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 2.9 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.8%
11-9 9.2% 96.3% 3.8% 92.5% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.1%
10-10 6.4% 87.7% 2.7% 85.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.8 87.3%
9-11 3.8% 59.0% 1.5% 57.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.6 58.3%
8-12 2.1% 26.9% 1.2% 25.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.5 26.1%
7-13 0.9% 3.0% 3.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.0%
6-14 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.4 0.5%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.2% 12.9% 81.2% 4.9 5.7 10.8 14.9 14.2 13.4 10.9 9.0 6.3 4.4 2.6 1.8 0.1 5.8 93.3%