Northwestern
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#59
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#60
Pace62.4#337
Improvement+1.3#91

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#106
First Shot+2.1#119
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#156
Layup/Dunks+0.5#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#263
Freethrows+1.9#76
Improvement+0.4#145

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#27
First Shot+2.4#105
After Offensive Rebounds+4.3#3
Layups/Dunks-2.0#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#145
Freethrows+1.2#103
Improvement+0.9#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.3% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.6% 5.5% 2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.5% 35.7% 21.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.6% 34.8% 20.4%
Average Seed 8.7 8.6 9.0
.500 or above 71.6% 78.0% 55.8%
.500 or above in Conference 34.8% 37.6% 27.7%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 4.1% 6.6%
First Four5.9% 6.2% 5.0%
First Round28.3% 32.3% 18.4%
Second Round13.5% 15.6% 8.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.9% 4.5% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.6% 0.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: DePaul (Home) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 10
Quad 25 - 48 - 14
Quad 35 - 113 - 15
Quad 45 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 246   Lehigh W 90-46 93%     1 - 0 +36.2 +14.0 +23.8
  Nov 09, 2024 38   @ Dayton L 66-71 30%     1 - 1 +9.8 -0.6 +10.3
  Nov 12, 2024 215   Illinois-Chicago W 83-74 91%     2 - 1 +3.3 +4.8 -1.8
  Nov 15, 2024 322   Eastern Illinois W 67-58 OT 97%     3 - 1 -3.1 -4.2 +1.8
  Nov 19, 2024 139   Montana St. W 72-69 85%     4 - 1 +1.1 +4.5 -3.1
  Nov 22, 2024 226   Pepperdine W 68-50 92%     5 - 1 +11.5 -3.8 +16.3
  Nov 28, 2024 74   Butler L 69-71 57%     5 - 2 +5.4 +2.5 +2.7
  Nov 29, 2024 113   UNLV W 66-61 71%     6 - 2 +8.5 +2.7 +6.5
  Dec 03, 2024 43   @ Iowa L 79-80 32%     6 - 3 0 - 1 +13.1 +10.5 +2.5
  Dec 06, 2024 16   Illinois W 70-66 OT 39%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +16.1 -1.9 +17.7
  Dec 15, 2024 110   Georgia Tech W 71-60 70%     8 - 3 +14.9 +1.5 +13.4
  Dec 21, 2024 88   DePaul W 70-64 71%    
  Dec 29, 2024 158   Northeastern W 72-60 87%    
  Jan 02, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 05, 2025 22   @ Purdue L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 12, 2025 14   Michigan St. L 64-67 38%    
  Jan 16, 2025 19   Maryland L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 19, 2025 20   @ Michigan L 64-72 22%    
  Jan 22, 2025 46   Indiana W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 26, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 29, 2025 62   Rutgers W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 35   Wisconsin W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 04, 2025 80   USC W 69-64 69%    
  Feb 08, 2025 96   @ Washington W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 16, 2025 52   Nebraska W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 20, 2025 39   @ Ohio St. L 64-70 31%    
  Feb 25, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 62-59 60%    
  Feb 28, 2025 43   Iowa W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 03, 2025 17   UCLA L 60-63 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 64-72 23%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.8 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.2 0.8 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 4.2 1.0 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.9 3.1 0.2 7.6 10th
11th 0.1 2.1 5.0 1.1 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 4.7 3.0 0.1 8.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.9 0.8 0.0 9.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.0 2.2 0.1 9.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 9.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 7.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.0 5.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.1 18th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 6.7 10.4 13.3 14.7 14.5 12.4 9.4 6.2 3.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 93.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 70.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 37.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.8% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.8% 99.4% 10.7% 88.8% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 3.7% 97.8% 4.8% 93.0% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.7%
12-8 6.2% 92.3% 3.3% 88.9% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.5 92.0%
11-9 9.4% 78.6% 2.0% 76.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.0 2.0 78.2%
10-10 12.4% 58.6% 1.2% 57.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.4 2.2 0.1 5.1 58.2%
9-11 14.5% 24.7% 0.6% 24.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 0.3 10.9 24.2%
8-12 14.7% 5.4% 0.3% 5.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 13.9 5.1%
7-13 13.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3 0.4%
6-14 10.4% 10.4
5-15 6.7% 6.7
4-16 3.6% 3.6
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 31.5% 1.2% 30.3% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.6 5.1 5.8 6.1 5.8 0.5 0.0 68.5 30.6%