Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#51
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#65
Pace76.4#24
Improvement-5.2#348

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#38
First Shot+6.0#42
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#144
Layup/Dunks+6.3#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#310
Freethrows+4.0#11
Improvement-1.4#268

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#75
First Shot+3.9#63
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#172
Layups/Dunks+2.2#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#142
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#127
Freethrows-0.3#210
Improvement-3.8#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 2.4% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.4% 35.4% 19.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.9% 34.9% 19.0%
Average Seed 9.2 9.1 9.5
.500 or above 93.1% 96.9% 84.8%
.500 or above in Conference 28.6% 35.7% 13.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 2.1% 8.5%
First Four7.7% 8.5% 6.1%
First Round26.6% 31.2% 16.5%
Second Round12.0% 14.2% 7.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 3.4% 1.4%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Home) - 68.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 9
Quad 23 - 47 - 12
Quad 35 - 111 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 322   Binghamton W 108-66 97%     1 - 0 +29.9 +23.3 +4.8
  Nov 08, 2024 271   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 103-54 95%     2 - 0 +40.0 +8.8 +24.8
  Nov 12, 2024 345   St. Francis (PA) W 92-62 98%     3 - 0 +15.3 -0.3 +11.6
  Nov 15, 2024 137   Virginia Tech W 86-64 80%     4 - 0 +23.7 +9.3 +13.3
  Nov 20, 2024 145   Purdue Fort Wayne W 102-89 87%     5 - 0 +11.6 +22.5 -11.3
  Nov 25, 2024 221   Fordham W 85-66 90%     6 - 0 +15.7 +9.9 +5.3
  Nov 26, 2024 30   Clemson L 67-75 40%     6 - 1 +5.1 +1.0 +4.1
  Dec 01, 2024 329   Buffalo W 87-64 98%     7 - 1 +9.7 +8.7 +1.0
  Dec 05, 2024 10   Purdue W 81-70 34%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +25.9 +12.3 +13.3
  Dec 10, 2024 66   @ Rutgers L 76-80 48%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +7.2 +5.2 +2.2
  Dec 14, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 99-51 99%     9 - 2 +28.2 +11.1 +12.6
  Dec 21, 2024 193   @ Drexel W 75-64 81%     10 - 2 +12.4 +11.9 +1.6
  Dec 29, 2024 287   Penn W 86-66 96%     11 - 2 +10.1 +4.3 +5.0
  Jan 02, 2025 55   Northwestern W 84-80 62%     12 - 2 2 - 1 +11.3 +13.9 -2.7
  Jan 05, 2025 56   Indiana L 71-77 63%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +1.2 +2.8 -1.6
  Jan 08, 2025 9   @ Illinois L 52-91 15%     12 - 4 2 - 3 -17.6 -16.4 +3.5
  Jan 12, 2025 28   Oregon L 81-82 50%     12 - 5 2 - 4 +9.6 +11.8 -2.2
  Jan 15, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 85-90 19%     12 - 6 2 - 5 +14.9 +19.1 -4.1
  Jan 20, 2025 66   Rutgers W 82-77 69%    
  Jan 24, 2025 50   @ Iowa L 87-90 38%    
  Jan 27, 2025 11   @ Michigan L 77-86 18%    
  Jan 30, 2025 36   Ohio St. W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 04, 2025 98   Minnesota W 76-68 79%    
  Feb 08, 2025 31   @ UCLA L 70-75 30%    
  Feb 11, 2025 61   @ USC L 78-79 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 95   Washington W 82-75 76%    
  Feb 19, 2025 52   Nebraska W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 98   @ Minnesota W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 56   @ Indiana L 77-79 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 25   Maryland L 79-80 46%    
  Mar 08, 2025 18   @ Wisconsin L 76-84 23%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.4 2.3 5th
6th 0.4 2.2 1.6 0.1 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 3.6 0.6 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.1 1.7 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.2 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 1.5 6.7 1.8 0.0 10.1 10th
11th 0.2 4.5 5.2 0.4 10.2 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 7.1 1.6 0.0 10.0 12th
13th 0.2 4.6 4.7 0.3 9.7 13th
14th 0.1 1.7 5.9 1.4 0.0 9.1 14th
15th 0.5 4.1 3.4 0.1 8.1 15th
16th 0.2 2.0 3.6 0.6 6.3 16th
17th 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.9 0.0 3.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.6 18th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.8 10.5 15.9 19.5 18.6 14.5 8.6 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 100.0% 3.3% 96.7% 6.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 4.1% 92.9% 2.7% 90.2% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 92.7%
11-9 8.6% 80.1% 2.3% 77.8% 8.7 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.1 1.4 0.4 1.7 79.7%
10-10 14.5% 64.9% 0.9% 64.0% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 3.5 1.7 0.0 5.1 64.6%
9-11 18.6% 33.7% 0.7% 33.0% 10.3 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.1 0.2 12.3 33.3%
8-12 19.5% 12.0% 0.3% 11.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.2 17.1 11.8%
7-13 15.9% 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.7 1.4%
6-14 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 10.0 0.0 10.5
5-15 4.8% 4.8
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.4% 0.7% 29.7% 9.2 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.6 4.8 6.1 7.5 7.0 0.5 69.6 29.9%