Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#62
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#84
Pace73.5#52
Improvement-8.2#361

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#58
First Shot+4.9#59
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#160
Layup/Dunks+5.7#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#312
Freethrows+3.7#20
Improvement-3.9#339

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#85
First Shot+3.2#75
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#181
Layups/Dunks+1.8#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#148
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#135
Freethrows-0.4#214
Improvement-4.3#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.0 11.1 11.0
.500 or above 31.6% 56.7% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 68.2% 49.0% 82.8%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 43.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 10
Quad 23 - 44 - 14
Quad 34 - 28 - 16
Quad 47 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 299   Binghamton W 108-66 95%     1 - 0 +31.8 +26.2 +3.8
  Nov 08, 2024 288   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 103-54 94%     2 - 0 +39.4 +8.7 +24.2
  Nov 12, 2024 331   St. Francis (PA) W 92-62 97%     3 - 0 +16.9 -0.3 +13.2
  Nov 15, 2024 128   Virginia Tech W 86-64 74%     4 - 0 +23.8 +9.9 +12.9
  Nov 20, 2024 153   Purdue Fort Wayne W 102-89 84%     5 - 0 +11.1 +23.1 -12.4
  Nov 25, 2024 204   Fordham W 85-66 85%     6 - 0 +16.6 +8.8 +7.5
  Nov 26, 2024 23   Clemson L 67-75 25%     6 - 1 +7.6 +2.2 +5.3
  Dec 01, 2024 352   Buffalo W 87-64 98%     7 - 1 +7.3 +8.4 -1.0
  Dec 05, 2024 16   Purdue W 81-70 27%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +25.9 +10.9 +14.8
  Dec 10, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 76-80 41%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +6.9 +4.6 +2.5
  Dec 14, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 99-51 99%     9 - 2 +27.0 +11.3 +11.3
  Dec 21, 2024 195   @ Drexel W 75-64 78%     10 - 2 +11.6 +11.9 +0.8
  Dec 29, 2024 260   Penn W 86-66 93%     11 - 2 +12.1 +4.7 +6.7
  Jan 02, 2025 58   Northwestern W 84-80 53%     12 - 2 2 - 1 +11.7 +12.6 -1.0
  Jan 05, 2025 57   Indiana L 71-77 52%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +2.0 +2.6 -0.6
  Jan 08, 2025 18   @ Illinois L 52-91 17%     12 - 4 2 - 3 -20.3 -19.2 +3.6
  Jan 12, 2025 39   Oregon L 81-82 46%     12 - 5 2 - 4 +8.6 +10.6 -1.9
  Jan 15, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 85-90 13%     12 - 6 2 - 5 +15.8 +20.2 -4.2
  Jan 20, 2025 63   Rutgers W 80-72 61%     13 - 6 3 - 5 +13.8 +10.1 +3.8
  Jan 24, 2025 61   @ Iowa L 75-76 38%     13 - 7 3 - 6 +10.8 +6.5 +4.2
  Jan 27, 2025 22   @ Michigan L 72-76 18%     13 - 8 3 - 7 +14.2 +9.1 +5.1
  Jan 30, 2025 33   Ohio St. L 64-83 40%     13 - 9 3 - 8 -7.9 -0.9 -7.7
  Feb 04, 2025 76   Minnesota L 61-69 64%     13 - 10 3 - 9 -3.1 -1.8 -2.3
  Feb 08, 2025 27   @ UCLA L 54-78 20%     13 - 11 3 - 10 -6.7 -4.5 -4.3
  Feb 11, 2025 59   @ USC L 67-92 35%     13 - 12 3 - 11 -12.3 +0.6 -13.4
  Feb 15, 2025 90   Washington L 73-75 70%     13 - 13 3 - 12 +1.2 +1.3 -0.1
  Feb 19, 2025 48   Nebraska W 89-72 50%     14 - 13 4 - 12 +25.5 +22.5 +3.4
  Feb 22, 2025 76   @ Minnesota L 70-71 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 57   @ Indiana L 75-80 32%    
  Mar 01, 2025 13   Maryland L 76-83 27%    
  Mar 08, 2025 7   @ Wisconsin L 73-86 11%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 5 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 11th
12th 0.7 0.2 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 2.1 0.1 2.2 13th
14th 0.5 2.2 0.0 2.7 14th
15th 5.6 1.3 6.9 15th
16th 2.9 12.1 0.1 15.2 16th
17th 5.3 25.4 6.0 0.0 36.7 17th
18th 21.2 13.6 0.4 35.1 18th
Total 26.5 41.9 24.6 6.5 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.5% 20.4% 20.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 20.4%
7-13 6.5% 1.7% 1.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.4 1.7%
6-14 24.6% 24.6
5-15 41.9% 41.9
4-16 26.5% 26.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 26.5%