Purdue
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#10
Expected Predictive Rating+18.6#12
Pace64.8#277
Improvement+5.0#15

Offense
Total Offense+10.3#9
First Shot+8.8#11
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#91
Layup/Dunks+0.1#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#47
Freethrows+2.3#53
Improvement-0.8#232

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#22
First Shot+6.6#25
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#116
Layups/Dunks+3.8#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#197
Freethrows+3.2#15
Improvement+5.8#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 2.0% 0.5%
#1 Seed 12.1% 13.8% 6.1%
Top 2 Seed 34.7% 39.1% 19.5%
Top 4 Seed 78.7% 82.8% 64.6%
Top 6 Seed 96.5% 97.7% 92.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 3.3 3.1 4.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.3%
Conference Champion 36.0% 40.8% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Second Round90.7% 91.9% 86.6%
Sweet Sixteen57.8% 59.5% 52.1%
Elite Eight28.1% 29.4% 23.5%
Final Four13.1% 13.7% 10.8%
Championship Game6.0% 6.4% 4.7%
National Champion2.5% 2.6% 2.1%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Home) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 8
Quad 28 - 117 - 9
Quad 34 - 021 - 9
Quad 43 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 169   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 90-73 96%     1 - 0 +13.9 +11.2 +2.0
  Nov 08, 2024 235   Northern Kentucky W 72-50 98%     2 - 0 +15.1 +7.5 +10.4
  Nov 11, 2024 88   Yale W 92-84 90%     3 - 0 +11.7 +16.3 -4.9
  Nov 15, 2024 7   Alabama W 87-78 54%     4 - 0 +25.7 +22.4 +3.5
  Nov 19, 2024 20   @ Marquette L 58-76 47%     4 - 1 +0.3 -3.6 +3.4
  Nov 23, 2024 179   Marshall W 80-45 97%     5 - 1 +31.4 +9.7 +23.3
  Nov 28, 2024 93   North Carolina St. W 71-61 86%     6 - 1 +16.1 +13.3 +4.6
  Nov 29, 2024 19   Mississippi W 80-78 58%     7 - 1 +17.6 +24.7 -6.9
  Dec 05, 2024 51   @ Penn St. L 70-81 66%     7 - 2 0 - 1 +2.3 +1.0 +1.6
  Dec 08, 2024 25   Maryland W 83-78 71%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +17.0 +16.7 +0.3
  Dec 14, 2024 21   Texas A&M L 66-70 59%     8 - 3 +11.3 +6.1 +4.9
  Dec 21, 2024 2   Auburn L 69-87 30%     8 - 4 +5.1 +6.4 -2.0
  Dec 29, 2024 194   Toledo W 83-64 97%     9 - 4 +14.7 +7.6 +7.9
  Jan 02, 2025 98   @ Minnesota W 81-61 82%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +27.8 +28.1 +3.6
  Jan 05, 2025 55   Northwestern W 79-61 83%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +25.3 +16.7 +9.8
  Jan 09, 2025 66   @ Rutgers W 68-50 73%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +29.2 +7.4 +23.6
  Jan 12, 2025 52   Nebraska W 104-68 82%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +43.8 +34.8 +8.7
  Jan 15, 2025 95   @ Washington W 69-58 80%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +19.7 +7.5 +13.1
  Jan 18, 2025 28   @ Oregon W 65-58 56%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +23.1 +0.4 +22.7
  Jan 21, 2025 36   Ohio St. W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 24, 2025 11   Michigan W 77-74 63%    
  Jan 31, 2025 56   Indiana W 77-67 85%    
  Feb 04, 2025 50   @ Iowa W 83-79 64%    
  Feb 07, 2025 61   USC W 78-67 86%    
  Feb 11, 2025 11   @ Michigan L 74-76 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 18   Wisconsin W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 18, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 71-73 40%    
  Feb 23, 2025 56   @ Indiana W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 28, 2025 31   UCLA W 71-64 76%    
  Mar 04, 2025 66   Rutgers W 79-67 87%    
  Mar 07, 2025 9   @ Illinois L 74-78 35%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.5 13.0 10.8 4.8 1.0 36.0 1st
2nd 0.5 5.7 11.8 6.7 1.3 0.1 26.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 8.2 4.1 0.5 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.8 3.6 0.3 10.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 2.7 0.3 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.3 6.0 12.3 18.6 21.7 20.2 12.1 4.9 1.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
18-2 97.9% 4.8    4.6 0.2
17-3 89.4% 10.8    8.6 2.1 0.1
16-4 64.7% 13.0    6.4 5.4 1.2 0.1
15-5 25.4% 5.5    1.2 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.1
14-6 4.4% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.0% 36.0 21.8 10.0 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.0% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 1.3 0.7 0.3 100.0%
18-2 4.9% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 1.5 2.6 2.1 0.2 100.0%
17-3 12.1% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.9 4.1 5.8 1.9 0.3 100.0%
16-4 20.2% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 2.4 3.0 8.0 7.1 2.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 21.7% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 3.1 1.3 4.8 8.6 5.5 1.4 0.2 100.0%
14-6 18.6% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 3.9 0.3 1.3 5.3 6.5 4.1 1.0 0.1 100.0%
13-7 12.3% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 4.6 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.4 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-8 6.0% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 5.3 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-9 2.3% 100.0% 3.9% 96.1% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.8% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3.3 12.1 22.6 25.2 18.8 11.9 5.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 84.6 15.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 22.2