Purdue
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#22
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#26
Pace65.0#280
Improvement+0.0#186

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#9
First Shot+8.1#16
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#86
Layup/Dunks+1.5#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#65
Freethrows+1.9#74
Improvement-0.1#185

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#67
First Shot+3.3#82
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#100
Layups/Dunks+4.2#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#227
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#300
Freethrows+2.7#34
Improvement+0.1#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
#1 Seed 2.8% 5.3% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 9.4% 17.2% 7.2%
Top 4 Seed 33.1% 48.6% 28.8%
Top 6 Seed 59.6% 75.5% 55.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.0% 96.3% 88.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.0% 95.8% 87.1%
Average Seed 5.6 4.8 5.9
.500 or above 95.6% 98.8% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 82.8% 88.2% 81.3%
Conference Champion 10.8% 14.1% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four4.2% 2.1% 4.7%
First Round88.0% 95.3% 85.9%
Second Round63.5% 74.7% 60.4%
Sweet Sixteen31.0% 39.9% 28.5%
Elite Eight13.1% 17.6% 11.9%
Final Four5.4% 7.3% 4.9%
Championship Game2.2% 3.1% 1.9%
National Champion0.9% 1.4% 0.7%

Next Game: Auburn (Neutral) - 21.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 10
Quad 27 - 215 - 11
Quad 33 - 018 - 12
Quad 43 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 190   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 90-73 95%     1 - 0 +12.6 +11.4 +0.5
  Nov 08, 2024 216   Northern Kentucky W 72-50 96%     2 - 0 +16.3 +7.4 +11.7
  Nov 11, 2024 105   Yale W 92-84 88%     3 - 0 +9.5 +14.3 -5.2
  Nov 15, 2024 7   Alabama W 87-78 45%     4 - 0 +24.5 +22.2 +2.6
  Nov 19, 2024 13   @ Marquette L 58-76 35%     4 - 1 +0.3 -4.2 +3.9
  Nov 23, 2024 186   Marshall W 80-45 95%     5 - 1 +30.7 +9.5 +22.9
  Nov 28, 2024 79   North Carolina St. W 71-61 76%     6 - 1 +17.1 +14.5 +4.3
  Nov 29, 2024 26   Mississippi W 80-78 52%     7 - 1 +15.6 +21.4 -5.5
  Dec 05, 2024 31   @ Penn St. L 70-81 44%     7 - 2 0 - 1 +4.7 +3.2 +1.8
  Dec 08, 2024 19   Maryland W 83-78 61%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +16.4 +16.8 -0.4
  Dec 14, 2024 24   Texas A&M L 66-70 51%     8 - 3 +9.9 +5.6 +4.0
  Dec 21, 2024 1   Auburn L 74-82 22%    
  Dec 29, 2024 206   Toledo W 89-69 97%    
  Jan 02, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 05, 2025 59   Northwestern W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 09, 2025 62   @ Rutgers W 76-74 59%    
  Jan 12, 2025 52   Nebraska W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 15, 2025 96   @ Washington W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 21, 2025 39   Ohio St. W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 24, 2025 20   Michigan W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 31, 2025 46   Indiana W 79-73 73%    
  Feb 04, 2025 43   @ Iowa W 81-80 50%    
  Feb 07, 2025 80   USC W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 11, 2025 20   @ Michigan L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 35   Wisconsin W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 18, 2025 14   @ Michigan St. L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 23, 2025 46   @ Indiana W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 28, 2025 17   UCLA W 68-66 58%    
  Mar 04, 2025 62   Rutgers W 79-71 77%    
  Mar 07, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 74-78 37%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.2 10.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.2 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.4 2.1 0.1 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.9 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 4.5 0.9 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.5 1.8 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.5 1.3 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.2 2.2 2.4 0.2 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.2 1.5 1.5 0.1 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.7 7.7 10.6 13.5 14.8 14.7 12.1 8.7 5.1 2.3 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 99.5% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 90.0% 2.1    1.7 0.4 0.0
16-4 67.6% 3.5    1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 34.8% 3.0    0.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 9.5% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 5.5 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 48.1% 51.9% 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 1.9 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 5.1% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.4 0.8 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.7% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 3.1 0.5 2.0 3.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.1% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 4.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.0 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.7% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 4.9 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.6 4.6 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 14.8% 99.8% 7.0% 92.9% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.6 4.3 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 13.5% 99.0% 3.9% 95.1% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.0 3.5 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 98.9%
10-10 10.6% 94.8% 2.7% 92.1% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.6 94.6%
9-11 7.7% 77.1% 1.4% 75.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.1 0.2 1.8 76.8%
8-12 4.7% 37.5% 0.9% 36.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.0 36.9%
7-13 2.6% 6.3% 0.4% 5.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5 5.9%
6-14 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 1.3 0.1%
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 90.0% 9.3% 80.7% 5.6 2.8 6.6 10.9 12.8 13.8 12.8 9.9 6.8 5.1 4.1 4.0 0.5 0.0 10.0 89.0%