Houston
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.6#3
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#20
Pace58.6#359
Improvement+0.9#147

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#15
First Shot+5.5#49
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#12
Layup/Dunks-1.3#235
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#76
Freethrows+0.3#157
Improvement-0.2#193

Defense
Total Defense+12.0#1
First Shot+12.0#1
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#195
Layups/Dunks+11.5#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#272
Freethrows-0.3#201
Improvement+1.1#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.8% 9.1% 4.3%
#1 Seed 43.0% 44.2% 24.4%
Top 2 Seed 73.8% 75.0% 54.1%
Top 4 Seed 95.5% 95.9% 89.1%
Top 6 Seed 99.4% 99.5% 98.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.0 2.0 2.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 55.3% 56.7% 34.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.5% 97.6% 95.2%
Sweet Sixteen76.4% 76.7% 71.0%
Elite Eight52.2% 52.6% 45.9%
Final Four31.8% 32.1% 26.6%
Championship Game18.5% 18.8% 14.0%
National Champion10.3% 10.5% 7.8%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 6
Quad 28 - 117 - 7
Quad 35 - 022 - 7
Quad 44 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 278   Jackson St. W 97-40 99%     1 - 0 +47.7 +26.1 +23.6
  Nov 09, 2024 2   Auburn L 69-74 44%     1 - 1 +18.1 +12.6 +4.9
  Nov 13, 2024 307   Louisiana W 91-45 99%     2 - 1 +35.1 +10.8 +23.2
  Nov 22, 2024 174   Hofstra W 80-44 98%     3 - 1 +32.8 +19.6 +17.2
  Nov 26, 2024 7   Alabama L 80-85 OT 58%     3 - 2 +14.4 +7.7 +7.1
  Nov 27, 2024 77   Notre Dame W 65-54 90%     4 - 2 +18.3 +3.1 +16.8
  Nov 30, 2024 47   San Diego St. L 70-73 OT 84%     4 - 3 +7.9 +13.4 -5.8
  Dec 07, 2024 84   Butler W 79-51 94%     5 - 3 +32.0 +18.4 +17.7
  Dec 10, 2024 117   Troy W 62-42 97%     6 - 3 +20.0 +6.6 +18.8
  Dec 18, 2024 194   Toledo W 78-49 98%     7 - 3 +24.7 -2.1 +26.3
  Dec 21, 2024 169   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 87-51 98%     8 - 3 +32.9 +26.9 +12.2
  Dec 30, 2024 101   @ Oklahoma St. W 60-47 90%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +20.3 -4.5 +25.5
  Jan 04, 2025 44   BYU W 86-55 88%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +39.7 +25.9 +17.3
  Jan 06, 2025 62   TCU W 65-46 92%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +24.9 +9.9 +18.6
  Jan 11, 2025 89   @ Kansas St. W 87-57 87%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +39.1 +22.3 +18.1
  Jan 15, 2025 32   West Virginia W 70-54 86%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +26.2 +23.9 +6.8
  Jan 18, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 69-68 85%     14 - 3 6 - 0 +11.5 +5.3 +6.3
  Jan 21, 2025 69   Utah W 75-59 94%    
  Jan 25, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 29, 2025 32   @ West Virginia W 65-59 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 17   Texas Tech W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 04, 2025 101   Oklahoma St. W 77-57 97%    
  Feb 08, 2025 94   @ Colorado W 71-58 88%    
  Feb 10, 2025 22   Baylor W 70-61 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 13   @ Arizona W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 18, 2025 64   @ Arizona St. W 70-60 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 4   Iowa St. W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 24, 2025 17   @ Texas Tech W 67-65 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 39   Cincinnati W 66-54 88%    
  Mar 03, 2025 6   Kansas W 68-63 68%    
  Mar 08, 2025 22   @ Baylor W 68-64 62%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 2.1 9.4 17.3 15.7 8.3 2.4 55.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 7.8 10.0 3.5 0.4 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.2 1.0 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 0.8 5.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 4.3 9.3 16.0 20.5 20.9 16.1 8.3 2.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.4    2.4
19-1 100.0% 8.3    8.2 0.1
18-2 97.8% 15.7    13.9 1.8
17-3 83.0% 17.3    11.1 5.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 46.2% 9.4    3.1 4.4 1.7 0.2
15-5 13.3% 2.1    0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
14-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 55.3% 55.3 38.9 12.8 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.4% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 1.1 2.1 0.3 100.0%
19-1 8.3% 100.0% 45.5% 54.5% 1.2 6.5 1.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 16.1% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.3 11.3 4.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 20.9% 100.0% 35.6% 64.4% 1.5 11.6 7.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 20.5% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.9 7.7 8.4 3.5 0.8 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.0% 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 2.4 3.0 5.8 4.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.3% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 3.1 0.8 2.1 3.0 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 4.3% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 4.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.8% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.5% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 2.0 43.0 30.8 14.0 7.7 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.1 90.6 9.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 90.5 9.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 86.0 14.0