Houston
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.0#6
Expected Predictive Rating+10.6#57
Pace58.9#362
Improvement-1.3#263

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#13
First Shot+3.7#81
After Offensive Rebound+4.9#7
Layup/Dunks-3.3#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#98
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement-1.2#277

Defense
Total Defense+10.5#4
First Shot+11.1#1
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#236
Layups/Dunks+11.2#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#233
Freethrows-1.1#259
Improvement-0.1#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.0% 4.0% 2.0%
#1 Seed 19.7% 19.8% 9.3%
Top 2 Seed 39.5% 39.7% 20.8%
Top 4 Seed 69.5% 69.8% 44.2%
Top 6 Seed 85.6% 85.8% 65.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.2% 97.3% 89.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.4% 96.5% 88.1%
Average Seed 3.6 3.5 4.8
.500 or above 99.4% 99.4% 95.3%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 96.6% 92.3%
Conference Champion 32.5% 32.6% 22.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 2.5%
First Round96.8% 96.9% 89.0%
Second Round87.1% 87.2% 71.8%
Sweet Sixteen60.5% 60.7% 43.8%
Elite Eight36.5% 36.7% 24.1%
Final Four21.2% 21.3% 11.7%
Championship Game11.6% 11.7% 5.2%
National Champion6.1% 6.1% 1.8%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 8
Quad 27 - 115 - 9
Quad 34 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 311   Jackson St. W 97-40 99%     1 - 0 +45.8 +24.2 +23.5
  Nov 09, 2024 1   Auburn L 69-74 36%     1 - 1 +17.7 +12.1 +4.9
  Nov 13, 2024 304   Louisiana W 91-45 99%     2 - 1 +35.2 +9.7 +24.4
  Nov 22, 2024 156   Hofstra W 80-44 97%     3 - 1 +33.1 +17.5 +19.6
  Nov 26, 2024 7   Alabama L 80-85 OT 52%     3 - 2 +13.5 +7.5 +6.3
  Nov 27, 2024 81   Notre Dame W 65-54 87%     4 - 2 +17.8 +4.8 +14.7
  Nov 30, 2024 45   San Diego St. L 70-73 OT 78%     4 - 3 +8.0 +10.6 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 74   Butler W 79-51 91%     5 - 3 +32.4 +18.9 +17.5
  Dec 10, 2024 127   Troy W 62-42 96%     6 - 3 +19.2 +6.5 +18.1
  Dec 18, 2024 206   Toledo W 83-59 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 190   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78-55 99%    
  Dec 30, 2024 85   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 04, 2025 44   BYU W 74-63 85%    
  Jan 06, 2025 86   TCU W 72-56 93%    
  Jan 11, 2025 64   @ Kansas St. W 69-62 75%    
  Jan 15, 2025 42   West Virginia W 70-59 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 82   @ Central Florida W 70-61 81%    
  Jan 21, 2025 66   Utah W 75-61 89%    
  Jan 25, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 29, 2025 42   @ West Virginia W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 25   Texas Tech W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 04, 2025 85   Oklahoma St. W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 08, 2025 73   @ Colorado W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 10, 2025 12   Baylor W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 21   @ Arizona W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 18, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 5   Iowa St. W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 24, 2025 25   @ Texas Tech W 67-65 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 27   Cincinnati W 68-59 78%    
  Mar 03, 2025 10   Kansas W 69-64 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 12   @ Baylor W 68-67 51%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.2 7.3 9.4 7.4 3.7 0.9 32.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.7 7.6 6.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.2 3.9 1.0 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 3.5 5.6 8.3 11.1 13.9 15.2 14.7 11.9 7.9 3.8 0.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 99.6% 3.7    3.6 0.1
18-2 94.4% 7.4    6.5 0.9 0.0
17-3 78.6% 9.4    6.4 2.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 49.6% 7.3    3.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 20.8% 3.2    0.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.5% 32.5 21.7 8.3 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 53.0% 47.0% 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 3.8% 100.0% 46.5% 53.5% 1.2 2.9 0.8 0.0 100.0%
18-2 7.9% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.4 5.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 11.9% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.7 5.3 5.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.7% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 2.2 3.6 6.0 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.2% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 2.9 1.5 3.8 5.4 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.9% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 3.8 0.3 1.4 3.7 4.6 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.1% 99.9% 14.5% 85.4% 4.8 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.8 3.0 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 8.3% 99.4% 9.8% 89.7% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
11-9 5.6% 97.1% 7.0% 90.1% 7.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 96.9%
10-10 3.5% 86.9% 5.1% 81.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 86.2%
9-11 1.8% 59.3% 4.9% 54.4% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.8 57.2%
8-12 0.8% 21.3% 3.6% 17.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 18.4%
7-13 0.5% 3.5% 0.4% 3.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.1%
6-14 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1%
5-15 0.0% 4.5% 4.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.2% 23.6% 73.6% 3.6 19.7 19.8 16.5 13.5 9.4 6.6 4.7 2.8 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.8 96.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 91.5 8.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 87.5 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 78.5 20.0 1.5