Houston
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.9#7
Expected Predictive Rating+19.4#14
Pace59.9#362
Improvement-0.5#228

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#21
First Shot+4.4#62
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#15
Layup/Dunks+0.9#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#104
Freethrows-1.6#264
Improvement+1.5#64

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#3
First Shot+12.3#3
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#278
Layups/Dunks+3.8#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#2
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#30
Freethrows-0.4#210
Improvement-2.0#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.2% 3.3% 0.9%
#1 Seed 18.1% 19.0% 8.3%
Top 2 Seed 40.2% 41.7% 22.7%
Top 4 Seed 75.1% 76.7% 57.1%
Top 6 Seed 91.2% 92.1% 80.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% 99.4% 97.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.0% 99.2% 97.3%
Average Seed 3.4 3.3 4.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.2% 97.5% 94.0%
Conference Champion 28.1% 29.1% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 1.4%
First Round99.0% 99.2% 97.3%
Second Round90.5% 91.0% 84.1%
Sweet Sixteen62.3% 63.3% 50.6%
Elite Eight35.3% 36.2% 25.1%
Final Four18.6% 19.2% 12.5%
Championship Game9.4% 9.7% 5.8%
National Champion4.4% 4.6% 1.9%

Next Game: Florida St. (Neutral) - 92.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 6
Quad 27 - 116 - 7
Quad 35 - 022 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 299 Lehigh W 75-57 99%     1 - 0 +7.3 -0.3 +8.0
  Sat, Nov 8 129 Towson W 65-48 96%     2 - 0 +16.4 -3.0 +20.8
  Wed, Nov 12 141 Oakland W 78-45 97%     3 - 0 +31.5 +10.3 +25.4
  Sun, Nov 16 20 Auburn W 73-72 67%     4 - 0 +16.4 +8.9 +7.5
  Thu, Nov 20 335 Rider W 91-45 99%     5 - 0 +32.5 +16.5 +17.8
  Mon, Nov 24 61 Syracuse W 78-74 OT 84%     6 - 0 +13.1 +5.5 +7.4
  Tue, Nov 25 16 Tennessee L 73-76 60%     6 - 1 +14.2 +20.5 -6.8
  Wed, Nov 26 56 Notre Dame W 66-56 83%     7 - 1 +19.5 +10.1 +11.3
  Sat, Dec 6 100 Florida St. W 79-64 92%    
  Wed, Dec 10 312 Jackson St. W 81-50 99.9%   
  Sat, Dec 13 216 New Orleans W 81-55 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 22 Arkansas W 72-67 67%    
  Mon, Dec 29 138 Middle Tennessee W 79-58 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 68 @Cincinnati W 70-62 78%    
  Tue, Jan 6 30 Texas Tech W 72-63 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 28 @Baylor W 73-70 61%    
  Tue, Jan 13 65 West Virginia W 69-55 90%    
  Sun, Jan 18 82 Arizona St. W 78-62 93%    
  Sat, Jan 24 30 @Texas Tech W 69-66 61%    
  Wed, Jan 28 48 @TCU W 69-63 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 68 Cincinnati W 73-59 90%    
  Wed, Feb 4 63 Central Florida W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 8 @BYU L 67-69 41%    
  Tue, Feb 10 117 @Utah W 76-62 89%    
  Sat, Feb 14 71 Kansas St. W 80-65 91%    
  Mon, Feb 16 6 @Iowa St. L 67-71 38%    
  Sat, Feb 21 9 Arizona W 72-68 63%    
  Mon, Feb 23 18 @Kansas W 66-65 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 64 Colorado W 77-63 89%    
  Wed, Mar 4 28 Baylor W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Mar 7 47 @Oklahoma St. W 77-71 70%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.3 8.5 8.6 4.6 1.2 28.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.3 8.7 6.0 1.5 0.1 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.0 7.5 4.0 0.7 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.9 9.6 13.3 16.8 17.3 15.3 10.1 4.7 1.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 98.8% 4.6    4.2 0.4
16-2 85.0% 8.6    6.2 2.2 0.2
15-3 55.8% 8.5    4.1 3.6 0.8 0.0
14-4 25.1% 4.3    1.0 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.1% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.1% 28.1 16.8 8.2 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 100.0% 44.3% 55.7% 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 4.7% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 1.3 3.3 1.4 0.1 100.0%
16-2 10.1% 100.0% 33.8% 66.2% 1.6 5.2 3.9 0.8 0.1 100.0%
15-3 15.3% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 2.0 4.9 6.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.3% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.5 2.7 6.2 5.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.8% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 3.3 1.0 2.9 5.8 4.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.3% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 4.2 0.2 0.8 3.0 4.5 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 9.6% 99.9% 9.6% 90.3% 5.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 2.8 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.9%
10-8 5.9% 99.5% 6.5% 93.0% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.5%
9-9 3.2% 98.0% 3.5% 94.5% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.9%
8-10 1.7% 90.5% 2.8% 87.7% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 90.2%
7-11 0.7% 69.3% 2.3% 67.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 68.6%
6-12 0.3% 34.6% 34.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 34.6%
5-13 0.1% 12.1% 12.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.1%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.2% 20.3% 79.0% 3.4 18.1 22.1 19.6 15.3 9.8 6.3 3.6 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.8 99.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 96.8 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 69.8 30.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 86.4 13.6