Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#49
Expected Predictive Rating+18.7#16
Pace74.3#61
Improvement+1.5#91

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#38
First Shot+5.3#52
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#48
Layup/Dunks+5.7#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement-0.7#231

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#90
First Shot+0.6#150
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#33
Layups/Dunks+4.2#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#297
Freethrows-2.1#314
Improvement+2.2#50
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 2.9% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 8.3% 14.7% 4.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.0% 69.4% 45.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.8% 69.2% 45.3%
Average Seed 8.6 8.2 8.9
.500 or above 95.9% 98.9% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 42.7% 59.3% 33.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 1.8% 6.1%
First Four10.8% 9.5% 11.5%
First Round47.9% 64.3% 38.9%
Second Round21.9% 31.0% 16.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.7% 7.4% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.9% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas (Home) - 35.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 9
Quad 25 - 39 - 12
Quad 36 - 015 - 12
Quad 44 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 110 Hofstra W 82-78 82%     1 - 0 +4.7 +6.7 -2.2
  Sat, Nov 8 9 Vanderbilt L 93-105 26%     1 - 1 +5.1 +22.0 -16.2
  Tue, Nov 11 341 Florida A&M W 97-60 98%     2 - 1 +22.5 +12.8 +7.4
  Fri, Nov 14 43 @Texas A&M W 86-74 34%     3 - 1 +26.8 +14.1 +12.0
  Mon, Nov 17 137 Oakland W 87-83 86%     4 - 1 +2.7 +6.6 -4.0
  Thu, Nov 20 84 Pittsburgh W 77-67 65%     5 - 1 +16.6 +15.2 +2.6
  Tue, Nov 25 160 Quinnipiac W 102-91 89%     6 - 1 +8.0 +18.3 -11.5
  Sat, Nov 29 332 VMI W 82-57 98%     7 - 1 +11.7 +2.8 +9.6
  Sun, Dec 7 128 Towson W 86-61 85%     8 - 1 +24.2 +21.7 +4.8
  Wed, Dec 17 174 Mercer W 81-63 91%     9 - 1 +13.9 +3.7 +9.8
  Sat, Dec 20 186 Florida Gulf Coast W 102-80 92%     10 - 1 +17.2 +22.0 -5.4
  Tue, Dec 23 114 Florida Atlantic W 85-80 75%     11 - 1 +8.4 +5.5 +2.5
  Sat, Jan 3 17 Kansas L 74-78 36%    
  Tue, Jan 6 55 @Oklahoma St. L 86-88 43%    
  Sun, Jan 11 67 Cincinnati W 79-74 69%    
  Wed, Jan 14 58 @Kansas St. L 85-87 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 2 Arizona L 77-87 18%    
  Tue, Jan 20 3 @Iowa St. L 73-88 9%    
  Sat, Jan 24 73 @Colorado L 82-83 49%    
  Tue, Jan 27 71 Arizona St. W 84-78 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 24 Texas Tech L 79-81 44%    
  Wed, Feb 4 8 @Houston L 67-80 12%    
  Sun, Feb 8 67 @Cincinnati L 76-77 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 62 West Virginia W 76-71 67%    
  Tue, Feb 17 53 TCU W 77-73 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 111 @Utah W 84-80 64%    
  Tue, Feb 24 11 @BYU L 75-87 13%    
  Sat, Feb 28 27 Baylor L 84-85 45%    
  Tue, Mar 3 55 Oklahoma St. W 89-85 65%    
  Fri, Mar 6 62 @West Virginia L 73-74 46%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.9 0.1 4.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 3.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.0 3.9 0.6 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.5 4.2 5.1 1.2 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 6.1 2.0 0.1 10.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 5.6 3.2 0.3 10.0 10th
11th 0.2 3.4 4.3 0.6 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 1.4 4.4 1.4 0.1 7.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.2 0.2 6.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.9 7.9 11.4 14.3 15.5 14.3 11.8 8.0 4.7 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 95.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 47.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 15.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.1% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.4% 100.0% 2.3% 97.7% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.7% 99.4% 1.6% 97.8% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.4%
11-7 8.0% 97.9% 0.7% 97.2% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.2 97.9%
10-8 11.8% 93.5% 0.5% 93.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.0 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.8 93.5%
9-9 14.3% 84.2% 0.2% 84.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.9 3.9 1.3 0.0 2.3 84.2%
8-10 15.5% 58.4% 0.2% 58.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.4 3.8 0.1 6.5 58.3%
7-11 14.3% 29.6% 0.0% 29.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 0.2 10.1 29.6%
6-12 11.4% 9.1% 9.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 10.4 9.1%
5-13 7.9% 1.3% 1.3% 11.4 0.1 0.0 7.8 1.3%
4-14 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 4.9 0.1%
3-15 2.1% 2.1
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 54.0% 0.4% 53.5% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.5 6.6 8.5 10.3 10.5 9.3 0.4 46.0 53.8%