Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#154
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#87
Pace77.3#31
Improvement+3.6#14

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#185
First Shot+0.3#166
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#246
Layup/Dunks-0.4#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#131
Freethrows-2.3#308
Improvement+3.5#7

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#145
First Shot+2.8#84
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#305
Layups/Dunks-1.5#235
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#130
Freethrows+1.7#80
Improvement+0.1#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 24.0% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 97.3% 97.9% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 98.5% 92.1%
Conference Champion 37.8% 40.0% 18.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round23.2% 24.0% 16.3%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 89.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 34 - 6
Quad 418 - 422 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 16 @St. John's L 74-108 4%     0 - 1 -13.7 -1.2 -7.0
  Thu, Nov 6 243 Central Connecticut St. W 71-49 76%     1 - 1 +14.5 -2.6 +17.4
  Tue, Nov 11 73 Yale L 60-97 32%     1 - 2 -32.3 -16.5 -15.1
  Sun, Nov 16 328 @Maine W 70-64 74%     2 - 2 -0.9 -2.0 +1.1
  Sun, Nov 23 95 @Pittsburgh W 83-75 21%     3 - 2 +16.3 +15.9 +0.6
  Tue, Nov 25 62 @Central Florida L 91-102 14%     3 - 3 +0.8 +12.1 -10.2
  Sun, Nov 30 339 Stonehill W 76-62 90%     4 - 3 -0.2 -0.6 +0.6
  Fri, Dec 5 176 @Iona W 89-68 44%     5 - 3 1 - 0 +22.6 +12.7 +9.0
  Sun, Dec 7 336 Rider W 81-67 90%    
  Sat, Dec 13 317 Umass Lowell W 85-73 86%    
  Wed, Dec 17 207 @Monmouth L 75-76 49%    
  Sun, Dec 21 139 @Hofstra L 71-76 34%    
  Mon, Dec 29 158 Marist W 69-66 62%    
  Fri, Jan 2 308 @Manhattan W 82-77 68%    
  Sun, Jan 4 304 Mount St. Mary's W 81-70 84%    
  Sun, Jan 11 256 @Sacred Heart W 84-82 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 326 St. Peter's W 79-66 88%    
  Sat, Jan 17 283 @Merrimack W 74-70 62%    
  Mon, Jan 19 308 Manhattan W 85-74 85%    
  Thu, Jan 22 304 @Mount St. Mary's W 78-73 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 158 @Marist L 66-69 41%    
  Fri, Jan 30 256 Sacred Heart W 87-79 77%    
  Sun, Feb 1 290 @Fairfield W 79-75 65%    
  Thu, Feb 5 355 Canisius W 79-63 93%    
  Sat, Feb 7 342 Niagara W 78-64 90%    
  Fri, Feb 13 156 @Siena L 71-74 40%    
  Sun, Feb 15 283 Merrimack W 77-67 80%    
  Sun, Feb 22 290 Fairfield W 82-72 82%    
  Fri, Feb 27 342 @Niagara W 75-67 77%    
  Sun, Mar 1 355 @Canisius W 76-66 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.0 8.5 10.9 8.3 4.2 1.0 37.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.9 8.2 6.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.1 5.5 3.5 0.9 0.1 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.6 7.4 10.5 13.3 16.0 16.1 13.7 8.6 4.2 1.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 99.5% 4.2    4.0 0.1
18-2 95.6% 8.3    7.2 1.1 0.0
17-3 79.9% 10.9    7.8 2.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 52.5% 8.5    4.4 3.3 0.8 0.1
15-5 25.1% 4.0    1.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 37.8% 37.8 25.8 9.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 54.3% 54.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
19-1 4.2% 45.6% 45.6% 12.7 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.3 2.3
18-2 8.6% 40.3% 40.3% 13.2 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.2
17-3 13.7% 32.2% 32.2% 13.6 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 9.3
16-4 16.1% 27.6% 27.6% 13.9 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.9 0.0 11.7
15-5 16.0% 21.7% 21.7% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.3 0.1 12.5
14-6 13.3% 17.9% 17.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 10.9
13-7 10.5% 13.5% 13.5% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 9.1
12-8 7.4% 10.4% 10.4% 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 6.6
11-9 4.6% 6.5% 6.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.3
10-10 2.5% 3.7% 3.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 2.4
9-11 1.3% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 0.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.1 8.6 5.4 1.0 76.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.2 4.2 6.3 56.3 29.2 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%