Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#207
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#221
Pace67.8#227
Improvement-0.3#211

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#201
First Shot-2.6#251
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#104
Layup/Dunks-3.0#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#281
Freethrows+0.9#131
Improvement+0.0#187

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#213
First Shot-3.8#301
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#57
Layups/Dunks-2.3#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#228
Freethrows-0.8#237
Improvement-0.3#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.9% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 41.5% 52.0% 28.5%
.500 or above in Conference 38.3% 43.3% 32.3%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.6% 7.6% 12.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round3.0% 3.8% 2.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Away) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 411 - 515 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 225 @La Salle L 60-73 42%     0 - 1 -13.8 -8.6 -6.0
  Thu, Nov 13 64 @Seton Hall L 58-70 10%     0 - 2 -0.4 -3.9 +2.9
  Tue, Nov 18 60 @Syracuse L 73-78 9%     0 - 3 +7.2 +6.8 +0.5
  Sun, Nov 23 186 Robert Morris W 71-70 OT 57%     1 - 3 -3.7 -2.6 -1.1
  Fri, Nov 28 310 Ball St. W 80-73 70%     2 - 3 -1.3 +8.4 -9.3
  Sat, Nov 29 306 Le Moyne L 79-83 70%     2 - 4 -12.1 +0.5 -12.7
  Sun, Nov 30 327 @Lafayette W 88-74 65%     3 - 4 +7.2 +12.2 -5.1
  Wed, Dec 3 250 Princeton W 63-58 69%     4 - 4 -2.9 -9.3 +6.6
  Sat, Dec 6 135 @Georgia Tech L 67-79 23%     4 - 5 -7.2 -0.7 -6.3
  Sun, Dec 14 290 @Fairfield W 73-72 55%    
  Wed, Dec 17 154 Quinnipiac W 76-75 51%    
  Sun, Dec 21 307 Lehigh W 75-67 79%    
  Wed, Dec 31 217 Campbell W 77-73 64%    
  Sat, Jan 3 125 @Towson L 64-72 23%    
  Thu, Jan 8 119 William & Mary L 78-81 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 139 @Hofstra L 66-73 24%    
  Thu, Jan 15 267 Drexel W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 228 Northeastern W 74-70 64%    
  Thu, Jan 22 208 @Hampton L 69-72 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 217 @Campbell L 74-76 42%    
  Thu, Jan 29 299 N.C. A&T W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Jan 31 139 Hofstra L 69-70 44%    
  Thu, Feb 5 221 @Stony Brook L 70-72 42%    
  Thu, Feb 12 267 @Drexel L 68-69 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 125 Towson L 67-69 42%    
  Thu, Feb 19 109 @UNC Wilmington L 65-75 19%    
  Sat, Feb 21 175 @College of Charleston L 70-75 35%    
  Thu, Feb 26 221 Stony Brook W 73-69 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 184 Elon W 77-75 57%    
  Tue, Mar 3 228 @Northeastern L 71-73 43%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 8 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 2.9 0.9 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.3 2.6 0.2 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.9 3.9 0.4 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.6 1.0 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.7 2.1 0.1 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.1 3.2 0.3 0.0 10.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 9.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.1 2.6 0.7 0.0 8.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.9 13th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.3 6.0 9.0 12.7 14.4 14.6 12.9 10.3 7.1 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 81.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 56.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 31.3% 31.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.8% 18.4% 18.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 2.4% 15.1% 15.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.0
12-6 4.5% 12.3% 12.3% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.0
11-7 7.1% 7.6% 7.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.5
10-8 10.3% 5.3% 5.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 9.7
9-9 12.9% 2.6% 2.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.5
8-10 14.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 14.4
7-11 14.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.2
6-12 12.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.6
5-13 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.0
4-14 6.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.0
3-15 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.5 96.9 0.0%