Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#221
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#142
Pace63.8#319
Improvement-1.3#269

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#182
First Shot-0.1#180
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#212
Layup/Dunks-5.2#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#144
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#31
Freethrows-1.3#258
Improvement-0.8#243

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#265
First Shot-3.8#300
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#137
Layups/Dunks+0.0#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#210
Freethrows-3.3#335
Improvement-0.5#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.3% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 45.2% 59.5% 35.8%
.500 or above in Conference 39.6% 46.0% 35.4%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.1% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.5% 7.5% 12.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.5% 3.3% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Home) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 85 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 328 Maine W 71-60 81%     1 - 0 -1.9 -4.0 +2.2
  Sat, Nov 15 73 @Yale L 79-86 10%     1 - 1 +3.7 +14.3 -11.3
  Thu, Nov 20 226 Brown W 80-70 62%     2 - 1 +3.2 +11.7 -8.1
  Mon, Nov 24 137 Pacific L 58-86 30%     2 - 2 -26.3 -10.7 -16.9
  Tue, Nov 25 220 Bethune-Cookman W 61-54 50%     3 - 2 +3.3 -7.1 +11.2
  Fri, Nov 28 140 @Loyola Marymount W 71-68 22%     4 - 2 +7.4 +5.3 +2.3
  Sat, Dec 6 133 @Duquesne L 75-84 21%     4 - 3 -4.2 +5.5 -9.8
  Tue, Dec 9 130 Columbia L 71-74 39%    
  Sat, Dec 13 309 Central Michigan W 74-67 76%    
  Wed, Dec 17 330 Albany W 76-67 81%    
  Sun, Dec 21 158 @Marist L 61-67 28%    
  Mon, Dec 29 208 @Hampton L 67-71 37%    
  Wed, Dec 31 119 @William & Mary L 73-83 19%    
  Sat, Jan 3 299 N.C. A&T W 75-68 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 267 @Drexel L 67-68 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 109 UNC Wilmington L 67-72 34%    
  Thu, Jan 15 139 Hofstra L 68-70 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 175 College of Charleston W 72-71 52%    
  Thu, Jan 22 228 @Northeastern L 69-72 40%    
  Thu, Jan 29 217 @Campbell L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 184 @Elon L 73-78 32%    
  Thu, Feb 5 207 Monmouth W 72-70 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 228 Northeastern W 72-69 61%    
  Thu, Feb 12 125 @Towson L 63-72 21%    
  Mon, Feb 16 267 Drexel W 70-65 67%    
  Sat, Feb 21 208 Hampton W 70-68 59%    
  Thu, Feb 26 207 @Monmouth L 69-73 36%    
  Sat, Feb 28 139 @Hofstra L 65-73 23%    
  Tue, Mar 3 125 Towson L 66-69 39%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 5.4 3rd
4th 0.4 2.5 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.1 1.6 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.0 2.4 0.2 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.7 3.8 0.4 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.8 0.9 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.6 2.0 0.1 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 2.9 0.2 10.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.4 0.5 9.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.8 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.4 6.3 9.3 11.9 13.7 13.6 12.6 9.9 7.5 4.8 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 89.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 79.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 52.1% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
13-5 22.9% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 25.6% 25.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.6% 13.1% 13.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2
13-5 2.7% 12.2% 12.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.4
12-6 4.8% 9.8% 9.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.3
11-7 7.5% 6.5% 6.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.0
10-8 9.9% 3.9% 3.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.5
9-9 12.6% 1.7% 1.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.4
8-10 13.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.4
7-11 13.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 13.6
6-12 11.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.8
5-13 9.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.3
4-14 6.3% 6.3
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 97.5 0.0%