Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#309
Expected Predictive Rating-9.8#304
Pace67.4#242
Improvement-3.0#342

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#270
First Shot-5.2#317
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#93
Layup/Dunks+1.6#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#346
Freethrows-2.9#327
Improvement-1.2#280

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#326
First Shot+1.1#131
After Offensive Rebounds-5.6#363
Layups/Dunks-1.1#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#147
Freethrows-0.3#206
Improvement-1.8#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.7 15.4
.500 or above 1.1% 5.3% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 11.6% 22.0% 11.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 26.8% 16.5% 27.0%
First Four0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 1.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 82 - 14
Quad 46 - 68 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 282 Appalachian St. W 82-66 55%     1 - 0 +6.5 +11.7 -4.0
  Sat, Nov 8 115 @Bradley L 54-85 9%     1 - 1 -24.6 -13.2 -12.1
  Thu, Nov 13 166 South Alabama L 64-66 24%     1 - 2 -2.8 -1.0 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82-59 81%     2 - 2 +5.6 +1.7 +3.6
  Thu, Nov 20 192 Northern Kentucky L 66-90 38%     2 - 3 -29.0 -7.8 -21.9
  Sat, Nov 22 88 @Marquette L 71-85 6%     2 - 4 -5.0 +2.1 -6.9
  Tue, Dec 2 260 @Loyola Chicago L 72-83 29%     2 - 5 -13.4 +0.7 -14.6
  Sun, Dec 7 45 @Saint Louis L 65-87 2%    
  Sat, Dec 13 221 @Stony Brook L 67-74 24%    
  Sat, Dec 20 333 @Northern Illinois L 74-75 47%    
  Mon, Dec 22 30 @Wisconsin L 64-89 1%    
  Tue, Dec 30 190 Ohio L 75-78 38%    
  Sat, Jan 3 163 Toledo L 74-79 33%    
  Tue, Jan 6 54 @Akron L 70-91 2%    
  Sat, Jan 10 121 Kent St. L 76-84 23%    
  Tue, Jan 13 112 @Miami (OH) L 69-84 9%    
  Tue, Jan 20 310 Ball St. W 71-68 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 245 @Western Michigan L 71-78 28%    
  Tue, Jan 27 205 Eastern Michigan L 70-72 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 129 Bowling Green L 69-76 25%    
  Tue, Feb 3 167 @Massachusetts L 70-80 17%    
  Sat, Feb 14 333 Northern Illinois W 77-72 68%    
  Tue, Feb 17 205 @Eastern Michigan L 67-75 23%    
  Sat, Feb 21 245 Western Michigan L 74-75 48%    
  Tue, Feb 24 121 @Kent St. L 73-87 11%    
  Sat, Feb 28 223 @Buffalo L 70-77 25%    
  Tue, Mar 3 54 Akron L 73-88 9%    
  Fri, Mar 6 310 @Ball St. L 68-71 40%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.8 0.2 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.3 0.4 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.0 1.1 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 4.2 6.5 2.0 0.1 13.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.6 7.3 3.1 0.2 15.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 5.5 7.3 3.4 0.3 0.0 17.9 12th
13th 0.8 2.9 5.6 5.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 17.1 13th
Total 0.8 3.0 6.9 11.4 14.6 15.8 14.8 12.1 8.9 5.7 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2
15-3 33.3% 0.0    0.0
14-4 31.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 6.0% 6.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 5.5% 5.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-8 3.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.2
9-9 5.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.7
8-10 8.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.9
7-11 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 14.8% 14.8
5-13 15.8% 15.8
4-14 14.6% 14.6
3-15 11.4% 11.4
2-16 6.9% 6.9
1-17 3.0% 3.0
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%