Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.7 296
Expected Predictive Rating -9.7 317
Pace 67.4 219
Improvement +3.1 61

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #239 C- C C- D D+
Defense D #319 D+ F C- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 179 55% 243 -1.0 222
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 62 42% 64 +3.6 36
Three Pointers 34% 315 31% 284 -4.8 327
1st FG Attempt 0.98 240 -2.2 240
Second Chance 28.1% 248 1.10 77 0.31 180
Turnovers 17.8% 242
Freethrows 0.28 277 69% 273 0.19 293
Total Offense -2.5 239

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 56 60% 252 -4.0 316
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 282 36% 118 +1.6 69
Three Pointers 39% 241 36% 270 -0.4 200
1st FG Attempt 1.07 275 -2.7 272
Second Chance 35.8% 342 1.20 351 0.43 358
Turnovers 15.8% 243
Freethrows 0.35 305 71% 91 0.25 284
Total Defense -5.2 319

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 296 +0.8 312
Shot Type Accuracy -1.3 218 +1.9 255
Possession Length 18.3 289 16.7 80
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 186 0.22 321
Improvement +2.2 #78 +0.9 #129

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 1% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 18% 10% 34%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 66.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 52 - 12
Quad 45 - 97 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 161 Appalachian St. W 82 - 66 33% +12  95% 1 - 0 B+ +13 A +14 A+ C+ F+ C +0 A+ F D+
 Sat, Nov 8 120 @Bradley L 54 - 85 11% -14  0% 1 - 1 F -25 F -18 F D- D D- -8 F C C
 Thu, Nov 13 191 South Alabama L 64 - 66 29% -3  1% 1 - 2 C- -4 C- -2 F+ B- C C- -2 A- F C-
 Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82 - 59 86% +13  94% 2 - 2 C+ +3 D+ -3 F+ B C+ B+ +6 A+ F F
 Thu, Nov 20 201 Northern Kentucky L 66 - 90 42% -13  0% 2 - 3 F -30 F -11 D A F F -20 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 22 85 @Marquette L 71 - 85 6% -5  4% 2 - 4 C- -4 C +0 D+ F+ A D+ -4 F+ C D+
 Tue, Dec 2 277 @Loyola Chicago L 72 - 83 35% -2  32% 2 - 5 F+ -15 C- -2 C+ C D- F -13 C+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 22 @Saint Louis L 65 - 107 1% -23  1% 2 - 6 F -22 C -0 B C D- F -23 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 13 213 @Stony Brook L 55 - 78 23% -16  0% 2 - 7 F -23 F -15 F D+ B+ F+ -10 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 314 @Northern Illinois L 73 - 74 44% +10  90% 2 - 8 0 - 1 D+ -7 C +1 D A+ D D- -9 C+ F B
 Mon, Dec 22 33 @Wisconsin L 61 - 88 2% -15  1% 2 - 9 D -10 D -5 D- D- A D -5 F A C+
 Tue, Dec 30 199 Ohio L 64 - 80 42% -5  42% 2 - 10 0 - 2 F -22 F -21 F F D- C+ +1 B+ C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 165 Toledo L 75 - 78 34% +5  75% 2 - 11 0 - 3 D+ -6 D -4 D+ D- A+ C- -2 A- C+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 72 @Akron L 69 - 82 5% -10  0% 2 - 12 0 - 4 C- -2 D -4 C+ F F C+ +2 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 147 Kent St. W 87 - 85 30% +1  62% 3 - 12 1 - 4 C -0 B +6 D- A+ A+ D -7 B+ F B-
 Tue, Jan 13 87 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 100 6% -17  1% 3 - 13 1 - 5 F -30 F -12 D- F F+ F -17 F F D
 Tue, Jan 20 310 Ball St. L 67 - 68 66% -5  10% 3 - 14 1 - 6 D- -13 C +0 B D+ D+ F -13 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 295 @Western Michigan L 65 - 77 38% -3  24% 3 - 15 1 - 7 F+ -17 F -13 F C+ D- D+ -4 C+ D+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 231 Eastern Michigan W 100 - 65 46% +9  61% 4 - 15 2 - 7 A+ +28 A+ +15 A+ C- A A +10 C C- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 158 Bowling Green W 62 - 59 33% -4  26% 5 - 15 3 - 7 C -0 F -13 F A C A+ +13 A A+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 183 @Massachusetts L 89 - 95 19% +1  47% 5 - 16 3 - 8 C- -4 A+ +14 A+ A+ F F -19 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 290 @Louisiana L 80 - 85 38% +1  64% 5 - 17 D -9 A +11 A B+ A- F -21 F F C
 Sat, Feb 14 314 Northern Illinois W 75 - 71 66%
 Tue, Feb 17 231 @Eastern Michigan L 68 - 75 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 295 Western Michigan W 79 - 76 61%
 Tue, Feb 24 147 @Kent St. L 73 - 84 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 202 @Buffalo L 72 - 80 23%
 Tue, Mar 3 72 Akron L 74 - 87 12%
 Fri, Mar 6 310 @Ball St. L 68 - 70 43%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 13 -8 C- -3 C- C C- D -5 D+ F C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- B- D+ C- 39% 27% 34% D+ C- C- B- C C- D+ D+ D D C- C+ D+ D+ 43% 17% 39% D D+ D- F+ F C- D B- D+
1.05 55% 42% 31% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.1 .31 18% .28 69% .19 1.16 60% 36% 36% +2 +1 1.07 36% 1.2 .43 16% .35 71% .19
Nov
3		 Appalachian St. A B+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 16% 35% B A+ A+ F C+ F+ B A+ A C A+ A+ B A+ 33% 17% 50% C+ A+ F+ F F D+ F A+ F+
1.26 63% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.27 45% 0.7 .31 18% .32 82% .26 1.02 38% 25% 29% -13 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 14% .52 48% .25
Nov
8		 Bradley F F B F F 23% 55% 21% F F F C D- D D A C- D- F A+ F F 36% 13% 51% F+ F D- A- C C F A D-
0.79 36% 42% 20% -7 -6 0.77 22% 1.0 .22 22% .28 80% .22 1.24 82% 17% 42% +12 +1 1.28 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 68% .29
Nov
13		 South Alabama C- F F D F+ 15% 8% 77% D+ F+ A- D B- C C F D+ C- B B A+ A+ 57% 7% 37% F A- F F F C- F C F
1.03 43% 25% 30% -8 0 0.85 41% 1.0 .41 18% .20 60% .12 1.07 50% 33% 18% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.6 .51 13% .43 65% .28
Nov
14		 Coppin St. D+ C- A+ F F+ 38% 26% 36% D- F+ B- B B C+ F D+ F B+ A A+ A+ A+ 42% 23% 35% D- A+ C- F F F C+ D C
1.16 60% 57% 26% +2 -1 1.04 40% 1.2 .49 16% .25 73% .18 0.83 41% 17% 17% -21 0 0.60 30% 1.5 .43 18% .31 72% .22
Nov
20		 Northern Kentucky F C+ A F D 35% 28% 37% D- D B A- A F B- F C- F C B- F F 37% 17% 46% B- F F F F C- B+ B- B+
0.97 60% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.98 39% 1.3 .52 28% .36 61% .22 1.32 58% 33% 46% +7 0 1.17 39% 1.5 .61 16% .23 69% .16
Nov
22		 Marquette C B- F+ D- D+ 40% 31% 29% D- D+ B- F F+ A D+ D+ D D+ F A+ B- F+ 57% 2% 40% F+ F+ B F+ C D+ F A- F
1.00 61% 28% 29% -4 -1 0.91 35% 0.5 .19 15% .23 71% .17 1.19 70% 0% 32% +5 +4 1.19 28% 1.1 .31 13% .56 63% .35
Dec
2		 Loyola Chicago C- B- A D+ B- 42% 33% 25% D C+ F A+ C D- C+ C- C F D B A C+ 43% 14% 43% C- C+ C+ F F F F C- F
1.08 60% 50% 33% +5 -1 1.08 17% 1.8 .31 15% .30 76% .23 1.25 63% 33% 26% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.7 .53 12% .57 70% .39
Dec
7		 Saint Louis C F A+ A- A- 30% 30% 40% D B C C+ C D- A D B+ F D- D+ C 55% 0% 45% F C- F F F F D+ C D+
0.94 36% 50% 37% -1 -2 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 19% .41 70% .28 1.55 69% 38% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.5 .63 6% .34 73% .25
Dec
13		 Stony Brook F D+ B- F F 34% 25% 42% D+ F F A+ D+ B+ D+ A C F+ B- F F F 42% 23% 35% C+ F F F F A+ F D+ F
0.86 56% 38% 9% -16 -1 0.68 18% 1.3 .23 12% .27 80% .21 1.22 50% 50% 67% +17 0 1.35 54% 1.2 .63 31% .34 73% .25
Dec
20		 Northern Illinois C D A+ F D- 53% 8% 39% A- D A- A A+ D F F F D- C- F A+ B 51% 5% 44% F C+ F F F B F F+ F
1.10 56% 75% 25% -4 +3 1.00 41% 1.3 .53 20% .24 54% .13 1.12 57% 50% 22% -8 +3 0.93 41% 1.3 .55 24% .68 74% .50
Dec
22		 Wisconsin D C- D F D 33% 37% 31% F+ D- F A+ D- A B- C- C+ D F A+ F F 41% 4% 54% D- F C A+ A C+ F A+ D
0.91 53% 37% 25% -6 -2 0.85 6% 2.5 .15 12% .29 71% .20 1.31 79% 0% 48% +19 +2 1.43 31% 0.8 .24 13% .45 65% .29
Dec
30		 Ohio F A- D+ F F 53% 22% 25% B- F F F F D- B+ D B- C+ B- F A+ A 55% 13% 32% F B+ B F C- C- F B+ F
0.83 67% 36% 0% -9 +1 0.86 21% 0.5 .11 19% .37 70% .26 1.04 55% 57% 18% -7 +2 0.92 25% 1.2 .30 16% .52 65% .34
Jan
3		 Toledo D C- D- A C- 38% 27% 35% F+ D+ F A+ D- A+ D B D+ C- B+ C+ C- B+ 37% 41% 22% A+ A- F+ A C+ F F D- F
1.07 57% 33% 42% +3 -1 1.05 13% 2.0 .25 13% .20 75% .15 1.12 50% 40% 36% -1 -3 0.94 35% 0.8 .27 10% .51 81% .41
Jan
6		 Akron D B- F+ D+ C 48% 16% 36% B C+ F C F F A+ A A+ C+ F F D F 44% 8% 48% F+ F F C+ F A+ A A A
0.97 62% 29% 31% -1 +1 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 24% .50 81% .41 1.15 73% 75% 38% +12 +2 1.30 42% 1.3 .54 27% .17 67% .12
Jan
10		 Kent St. B C- B F D 34% 29% 37% F+ D- A- A+ A+ A+ B- D+ C+ D B- A+ B A- 38% 15% 47% D+ B+ F F F B- A B A
1.20 55% 41% 27% -4 -1 0.92 39% 1.4 .52 10% .35 70% .24 1.17 52% 13% 31% -8 +1 0.87 50% 1.4 .68 21% .30 71% .21
Jan
13		 Miami (OH) F D- B D- D 33% 35% 33% F D- D+ F F F+ F+ F F F F+ F F F 37% 16% 47% C F C F F D F F F
0.87 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 26% 0.4 .11 21% .22 67% .15 1.43 72% 50% 48% +17 0 1.37 24% 2.0 .48 13% .46 89% .41
Jan
20		 Ball St. C F B A+ B+ 33% 27% 40% D B C D- D+ D+ F+ F F F D A- F F 41% 22% 37% C F F A- C- F A D+ A-
1.14 33% 42% 61% +9 -1 1.18 34% 0.9 .31 20% .21 50% .11 1.15 60% 27% 39% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 8% .20 73% .15
Jan
24		 Western Michigan F C- F F F 39% 14% 47% C F C- A- C+ D- A+ B- A+ D+ C+ A B B 50% 15% 35% F C+ C D D+ F F C+ F
0.96 58% 0% 17% -17 +1 0.69 29% 1.3 .39 16% .46 73% .33 1.13 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 10% .54 70% .38
Jan
27		 Eastern Michigan A+ C A+ A+ A+ 50% 20% 30% B- A+ C+ D C- A A C- A- A D+ F A C 38% 21% 40% D C A+ F C- A+ F A- F+
1.32 57% 73% 53% +15 +1 1.34 31% 0.9 .28 12% .39 73% .29 0.86 61% 50% 26% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.6 .28 25% .37 67% .25
Jan
31		 Bowling Green F C- F F F 46% 28% 26% D F C+ A+ A C D- F F A+ B+ A+ A A+ 59% 15% 25% D A B- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+
0.88 57% 21% 15% -13 0 0.76 29% 1.5 .44 18% .26 47% .12 0.84 49% 22% 27% -11 +2 0.85 25% 0.4 .09 16% .20 58% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Massachusetts A+ C C+ A+ A+ 35% 23% 42% D A+ A B+ A+ F A+ D A- F F F F F 48% 8% 44% F F D F F F F D F
1.27 60% 40% 72% +25 -1 1.51 38% 1.2 .46 30% .49 67% .33 1.36 70% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.31 36% 1.5 .54 13% .46 71% .33
Feb
7		 Louisiana A D A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 41% F+ A F+ A+ B+ A- C+ C- C F C F F F 28% 41% 30% B+ F F B F C F F F
1.25 53% 73% 44% +14 -1 1.27 24% 1.8 .43 14% .38 71% .27 1.33 54% 47% 64% +17 -3 1.28 45% 0.8 .34 17% .36 84% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.8 2.1 0.2 3.1 7th
8th 1.3 6.3 1.8 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 3.4 16.1 6.6 0.2 26.3 9th
10th 0.3 13.0 9.1 0.3 22.7 10th
11th 5.3 12.1 1.0 18.4 11th
12th 0.6 10.1 2.4 0.0 13.2 12th
13th 3.1 2.8 0.0 5.9 13th
Total 3.7 18.6 31.0 27.5 14.0 4.6 0.7 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 4.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.6
7-11 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.0
6-12 27.5% 27.5
5-13 31.0% 31.0
4-14 18.6% 18.6
3-15 3.7% 3.7
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.7%