Preseason Rankings
Mid-American
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
104 Akron 28.2%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 7 14 - 4 +4.6      +3.9 75 +0.7 142 76.4 18 0.0 1 0.0 1
126 Kent St. 16.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 12 - 6 +2.1      +0.5 148 +1.5 121 65.7 246 0.0 1 0.0 1
128 Miami (OH) 16.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 11 - 6 +2.0      +1.9 113 +0.1 159 71.1 95 0.0 1 0.0 1
145 Ohio 12.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 +0.7      +1.5 123 -0.8 192 74.5 40 0.0 1 0.0 1
173 Massachusetts 7.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 10 - 8 -1.1      -0.8 189 -0.3 172 74.5 42 0.0 1 0.0 1
180 Toledo 6.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 10 - 7 -1.5      +2.9 97 -4.4 311 70.0 122 0.0 1 0.0 1
220 Bowling Green 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -3.5      -2.0 229 -1.4 217 71.0 97 0.0 1 0.0 1
244 Ball St. 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -4.6      -1.0 200 -3.5 288 66.3 225 0.0 1 0.0 1
286 Western Michigan 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -7.0      -3.0 262 -4.0 301 69.0 150 0.0 1 0.0 1
291 Eastern Michigan 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -7.2      -2.6 247 -4.6 316 69.0 148 0.0 1 0.0 1
299 Central Michigan 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 11 -7.5      -4.4 295 -3.2 280 67.4 204 0.0 1 0.0 1
316 Northern Illinois 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -8.8      -4.2 292 -4.6 317 71.3 90 0.0 1 0.0 1
334 Buffalo 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 13 -10.4      -5.0 315 -5.3 333 74.7 37 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Akron 2.5 42.7 21.2 13.2 7.9 5.7 3.6 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kent St. 3.7 23.9 18.3 15.2 12.0 8.8 6.6 4.9 3.8 2.6 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.3
Miami (OH) 4.3 14.8 15.9 15.6 13.3 10.9 9.1 6.5 5.1 3.5 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.4
Ohio 4.3 16.9 16.1 14.5 12.4 10.0 8.2 6.9 5.2 4.0 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.5
Massachusetts 5.2 10.1 11.8 12.4 12.1 11.3 10.1 8.6 7.3 5.8 4.4 3.1 2.0 1.1
Toledo 6.0 5.4 8.3 10.3 11.3 12.0 11.5 10.3 9.0 7.4 6.0 4.5 2.7 1.4
Bowling Green 6.8 4.3 6.0 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.0 9.2 8.6 6.8 5.2 3.0
Ball St. 7.2 3.4 5.0 6.4 7.6 9.6 10.2 10.9 10.9 9.9 8.7 7.7 6.0 3.7
Western Michigan 8.7 1.2 2.1 3.1 4.4 6.0 7.7 9.1 10.2 11.0 12.1 12.4 11.9 8.9
Eastern Michigan 8.9 1.2 1.9 2.9 4.1 5.6 6.7 8.8 10.1 11.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 10.6
Central Michigan 8.7 1.1 2.1 3.0 4.6 6.0 7.3 9.1 10.1 11.3 11.5 12.0 12.1 9.8
Northern Illinois 9.4 0.5 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.7 6.2 7.5 9.3 10.9 12.6 13.6 14.2 14.0
Buffalo 10.5 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.5 4.7 6.5 8.9 11.4 15.0 19.9 24.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.2 7.5 10.3 13.0 15.3 15.8 12.9 8.9 3.8
Kent St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.6 8.9 11.0 12.7 12.9 12.4 10.5 7.4 3.9 1.3
Miami (OH) 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.1 4.4 6.4 8.8 11.1 12.6 13.6 13.0 10.8 7.6 4.3 1.4
Ohio 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.8 6.8 8.4 10.4 11.7 12.3 12.2 10.5 7.9 5.3 2.4 0.7
Massachusetts 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.3 4.9 7.1 8.7 10.7 11.8 11.6 11.7 9.7 7.4 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.4
Toledo 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.6 5.0 6.9 9.1 10.4 12.3 12.6 11.8 9.9 8.0 5.0 2.6 1.2 0.3
Bowling Green 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 5.0 7.1 9.4 10.6 11.7 11.2 11.0 9.3 7.3 5.6 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1
Ball St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.4 5.9 7.8 9.9 11.3 11.8 11.9 10.3 8.5 6.7 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Western Michigan 7 - 11 0.6 2.2 4.8 7.5 10.1 12.0 12.2 11.8 10.8 9.2 6.9 4.7 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 7 - 11 0.9 2.5 5.7 8.2 10.5 11.6 12.4 12.1 10.5 8.5 6.4 4.4 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 7 - 11 0.7 2.4 4.9 7.9 9.8 11.8 12.4 11.9 10.5 9.0 6.7 5.0 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 6 - 12 1.1 3.8 6.9 9.7 11.7 13.1 12.7 11.4 9.4 7.4 5.4 3.4 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 5 - 13 2.8 7.5 11.9 13.9 15.0 13.1 11.2 8.3 6.3 4.3 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 42.7% 30.5 9.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 23.9% 15.5 6.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 14.8% 8.3 4.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ohio 16.9% 10.4 4.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 10.1% 5.8 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Toledo 5.4% 2.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 4.3% 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 3.4% 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Central Michigan 1.1% 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 28.2% 28.0% 0.2% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 5.7 9.9 6.8 3.2 1.0 0.2 71.8 0.2%
Kent St. 16.5% 16.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.3 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.3 83.5 0.1%
Miami (OH) 16.6% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.0 4.7 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.4 83.4 0.0%
Ohio 12.5% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.6 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.4 87.5 0.0%
Massachusetts 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.4 92.2 0.0%
Toledo 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.4 93.2 0.0%
Bowling Green 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 95.7 0.0%
Ball St. 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 96.9 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 98.7 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 98.9 0.0%
Central Michigan 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 98.9 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.3 0.0%
Buffalo 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 28.2% 0.2% 28.2% 5.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 16.5% 0.2% 16.5% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 16.6% 0.2% 16.6% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 12.5% 0.2% 12.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 7.8% 0.2% 7.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 6.8% 0.2% 6.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 4.3% 0.2% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 3.1% 0.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.3% 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.7 98.1 1.2
2nd Round 12.4% 0.1 87.6 12.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0