Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 #166
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 #194
Pace 70.5 #138
Improvement -0.5 #213

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #105 B- C B- C+ D
Defense #274 F C- C+ A D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #125 1.15 #180 +1.2 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #43 0.90 #32 +5.0 #14
Three Pointers 31% #347 1.10 #65 -3.8 #308
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #112 +2.4 #112
Freethrows 17.4 #204 77% #35 13.4 #142
Second Chance 31.0% #172 0.98 #262 0.30 #204
Turnovers 15.1% #93
Total Offense +2.7 #105

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 1.25 #299 -3.5 #298
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #332 0.83 #294 +1.6 #76
Three Pointers 44% #101 1.13 #320 -3.9 #322
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #340 -5.8 #340
Freethrows 13.3 #16 70% #82 9.4 #16
Second Chance 33.6% #299 1.00 #123 0.34 #233
Turnovers 17.6% #104
Total Defense -3.3 #274

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #292 1.8% #332
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.5% #80 9.5% #333
Possession Length 16.5 #104 17.5 #210
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #63 0.21 #306
Improvement -0.5 #208 +0.1 #183

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.6% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 47.9% 63.1% 32.2%
.500 or above in Conference 77.2% 88.8% 65.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round3.7% 4.6% 2.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Home) - 50.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 410 - 315 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 191 South Alabama L 74 - 76 67% -9  0 - 1 -7 +7 A+ F C -14 F F A
 Sat, Nov 8 163 Marshall L 73 - 85 61% +1  0 - 2 -15 -3 C D- F -12 F A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 154 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 35% +4  1 - 2 +13 +13 A A+ F +1 F C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 286 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 82% +4  2 - 2 -3 +4 A- D F -8 F C C+
 Wed, Nov 19 213 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 71% +8  3 - 2 +11 +10 A+ B C+ -1 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 112 Troy W 75 - 68 35% +2  4 - 2 +10 +5 C C+ C+ +6 A A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 82 Belmont L 72 - 87 23% -3  4 - 3 -8 -0 C+ D+ C+ -7 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 139 @Oakland L 97 - 98 32% +1  4 - 4 +3 +12 B A C -9 D D- F
 Sat, Dec 13 200 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 46% +6  4 - 5 -5 -3 F F A+ -2 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 11 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 2% -20  4 - 6 +0 +10 C C A+ -9 F C- A-
 Tue, Dec 30 260 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 77% -3  5 - 6 1 - 0 -3 +3 F B+ D+ -7 C+ D- A
 Sat, Jan 3 322 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 73% -5  6 - 6 2 - 0 -4 +2 F F A+ -6 F B- F
 Tue, Jan 6 318 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 72% +11  7 - 6 3 - 0 +7 -0 C+ F C- +8 C- B- A+
 Fri, Jan 9 89 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 35% -17  7 - 7 3 - 1 -11 -0 D+ F B- -11 F D C
 Tue, Jan 13 196 Ohio W 101 - 85 68% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +11 +25 A+ A+ A- -14 D- F C-
 Fri, Jan 16 148 @Kent St. L 84 - 87 34% +0  8 - 8 4 - 2 +1 +8 C A- C -7 D- C+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 176 @Massachusetts L 82 - 84 41% -2  8 - 9 4 - 3 -0 +10 A+ C- F -11 F F C
 Sat, Jan 24 129 Bowling Green W 79 - 78 51%
 Tue, Jan 27 64 @Akron L 80 - 92 13%
 Sat, Jan 31 296 Ball St. W 79 - 69 83%
 Tue, Feb 3 148 Kent St. W 86 - 84 56%
 Sat, Feb 7 231 @James Madison W 78 - 77 51%
 Wed, Feb 11 260 @Western Michigan W 81 - 79 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 129 @Bowling Green L 75 - 81 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 198 Eastern Michigan W 78 - 73 68%
 Tue, Feb 24 318 Northern Illinois W 83 - 71 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 196 @Ohio L 81 - 82 45%
 Tue, Mar 3 89 @Miami (OH) L 78 - 88 18%
 Fri, Mar 6 201 Buffalo W 82 - 77 67%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -1 +3 B- C B- -3 F C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.7 7.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.7 6.3 9.6 2.9 0.2 19.7 4th
5th 0.3 6.2 11.9 3.9 0.2 22.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 9.7 3.8 0.2 16.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.3 3.9 0.3 11.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 3.6 0.4 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.6 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.5 13.7 20.9 23.0 18.3 10.4 3.6 0.8 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 12.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.8% 8.5% 8.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-5 3.6% 8.5% 8.5% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.3
12-6 10.4% 7.1% 7.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 9.7
11-7 18.3% 5.6% 5.6% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 17.3
10-8 23.0% 3.6% 3.6% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 22.2
9-9 20.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 20.4
8-10 13.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.1 0.1 13.5
7-11 6.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.5
6-12 2.1% 2.1
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 14.1 96.2 0.0%