Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.7 135
Expected Predictive Rating +2.3 125
Pace 65.9 252
Improvement +0.3 175

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #125 C C+ C+ C B+
Defense C #164 C- C- C+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 69 54% 269 +0.9 143
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% 337 39% 157 -3.3 334
Three Pointers 45% 101 35% 130 +2.8 87
1st FG Attempt 1.03 154 +0.4 160
Second Chance 33.3% 97 1.00 219 0.33 125
Turnovers 16.6% 155
Freethrows 0.30 217 74% 139 0.22 189
Total Offense +1.6 125

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 257 56% 124 +2.2 102
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 151 46% 356 -2.1 330
Three Pointers 43% 120 35% 230 -1.5 256
1st FG Attempt 1.04 222 -1.4 226
Second Chance 31.1% 207 1.05 217 0.33 223
Turnovers 17.4% 149
Freethrows 0.29 137 70% 74 0.20 105
Total Defense +0.1 164

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.4 25 -0.3 119
Shot Type Accuracy -0.8 201 +1.5 235
Possession Length 17.7 222 17.8 265
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 198 0.16 152
Improvement +0.9 #131 -0.6 #224

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31% 35% 25%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 66% 81% 42%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round31% 35% 25%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 62.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 13 - 2
Quad 36 - 59 - 7
Quad 411 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 147 @Kent St. W 103 - 97 OT 42% +8  89% 1 - 0 B +10 A- +10 A B- B- C -1 B- D- D
 Fri, Nov 7 176 @Furman W 64 - 61 49% +7  92% 2 - 0 B- +5 F+ -8 C- F+ F A+ +13 B C+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 151 @Loyola Marymount L 63 - 74 43% -3  17% 2 - 1 D+ -8 D- -8 C+ D+ F C +0 F+ A- D
 Sun, Nov 16 186 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 94 51% -4  14% 2 - 2 D+ -8 B +7 B+ F A F -14 F+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 43 @San Diego St. W 108 - 107 2OT 11% +3  70% 3 - 2 A- +16 A+ +20 B A+ A+ D+ -4 C F A
 Thu, Nov 20 47 @USC L 106 - 107 3OT 12% -2  27% 3 - 3 B+ +13 B +7 C- A+ D+ B+ +7 B A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 165 Toledo L 68 - 75 58% -2  35% 3 - 4 D+ -7 F+ -9 F F+ C+ C+ +1 B- D- C
 Wed, Nov 26 355 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 92% -2  32% 4 - 4 C- -4 F -13 F+ D+ F B+ +8 D+ B A+
 Mon, Dec 1 317 West Georgia L 89 - 93 2OT 90% +0  36% 4 - 5 F+ -17 F -10 C F F D -6 D+ C+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 118 @UAB W 86 - 85 34% +0  43% 5 - 5 B- +7 A+ +17 A B A F+ -10 F F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 164 Marshall W 70 - 63 69% +6  89% 6 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +4 F+ -8 F+ D+ D+ A +11 A+ B+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 234 Texas St. W 100 - 80 80% +8  83% 7 - 5 2 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +26 A+ A+ A+ F -13 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 191 South Alabama W 59 - 49 74% +5  80% 8 - 5 3 - 0 B- +5 D -6 D- D B A +12 A+ C B+
 Wed, Jan 7 141 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 86 40% -10  5% 8 - 6 3 - 1 D+ -8 D -5 C- F C+ C- -2 D- D B-
 Sat, Jan 10 290 @Louisiana W 90 - 70 72% +16  99% 9 - 6 4 - 1 A- +16 A+ +23 B A+ D- D+ -5 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 241 Southern Miss W 91 - 65 81% +12  81% 10 - 6 5 - 1 A +18 A +13 A C+ A+ B +5 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 141 Arkansas St. W 99 - 74 63% +9  83% 11 - 6 6 - 1 A+ +23 A+ +27 A+ A+ A C- -3 B+ D F
 Wed, Jan 21 253 @Old Dominion W 83 - 77 2OT 64% -1  24% 12 - 6 7 - 1 C+ +4 D -5 F B D+ A- +8 B- A C-
 Sat, Jan 24 274 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 78 69% +4  89% 13 - 6 8 - 1 C +2 A +12 C A+ D+ F+ -10 F+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 222 James Madison L 64 - 73 77% -1  37% 13 - 7 8 - 2 F+ -15 F -12 F F+ B+ C- -3 F+ C- B
 Sat, Jan 31 161 Appalachian St. L 44 - 66 69% -9  6% 13 - 8 8 - 3 F -25 F -22 F F C- D -7 F A- A
 Wed, Feb 4 276 @Georgia St. W 74 - 63 69% +4  78% 14 - 8 9 - 3 B- +8 B +5 B D A- B- +3 C+ D+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 72 Akron W 79 - 69 38% +3  63% 15 - 8 A- +15 A- +11 B- C+ A+ B +5 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 234 @Texas St. L 62 - 74 61% -9  0% 15 - 9 9 - 4 D- -13 D -6 F C- F D- -9 F C B
 Sat, Feb 14 241 @Southern Miss W 74 - 71 62%
 Wed, Feb 18 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 70 90%
 Sat, Feb 21 191 @South Alabama W 69 - 68 53%
 Tue, Feb 24 290 Louisiana W 73 - 61 87%
 Fri, Feb 27 356 Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 67 97%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 5 +2 C+ +2 C C+ C+ C +0 C- C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D+ C C+ C- 43% 12% 45% B+ C B- C- C+ C+ C- C+ C C C+ F C- C- 36% 21% 43% C+ C- C C- C- C+ C+ B- B-
1.11 54% 39% 35% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.0 .33 17% .30 74% .22 1.08 56% 46% 35% +2 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .33 17% .29 70% .21
Nov
3		 Kent St. A- C B- A+ A 50% 9% 41% A A F A+ B- B- A+ B A+ C A+ A- F B- 35% 23% 42% B B- F C+ D- D F C- F
1.20 59% 40% 46% +8 +2 1.22 21% 1.7 .34 14% .45 76% .34 1.13 36% 29% 42% -5 0 0.92 44% 1.0 .46 16% .46 76% .35
Nov
7		 Furman F+ D A+ D- D 35% 10% 55% B+ C- F+ D- F+ F C D+ C- A+ A+ A+ F B+ 41% 11% 48% D+ B C+ B- C+ A B C B
0.94 50% 60% 29% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 20% .24 69% .17 0.89 42% 20% 41% -3 +1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 25% .23 67% .16
Nov
14		 Loyola Marymount D- F A+ C C- 40% 10% 50% A C+ C- D D+ F A+ B+ A+ C D- F D F 33% 33% 35% B+ F+ A C+ A- D A- A+ A+
0.91 41% 50% 33% -6 +2 0.93 30% 0.9 .27 29% .41 80% .32 1.07 67% 56% 37% +10 -2 1.18 19% 1.0 .19 16% .19 45% .09
Nov
16		 Cal St. Northridge B B A+ C+ B+ 37% 9% 54% B+ B+ D- F F A B A+ A- F C- F D+ D- 56% 9% 35% F F+ F F F B- B D C+
1.16 65% 60% 34% +5 +1 1.15 21% 0.7 .15 11% .34 86% .29 1.29 60% 60% 37% +5 +3 1.17 45% 1.3 .61 19% .27 69% .19
Nov
18		 San Diego St. A+ C A+ D+ B 31% 23% 45% C- B A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ D+ D+ F D+ 29% 38% 33% A C F C+ F A F B+ F
1.21 55% 47% 31% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.1 .40 15% .56 74% .42 1.19 67% 40% 41% +7 -3 1.10 45% 1.1 .48 22% .69 71% .49
Nov
20		 USC B D+ F C- D+ 47% 16% 37% A- C- A+ A- A+ D+ A+ D A+ B+ B F B B 37% 24% 39% C+ B A+ D- A+ F+ F C- F
1.05 52% 27% 31% -6 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .46 20% .43 71% .31 1.06 56% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.01 16% 1.1 .18 13% .52 74% .39
Nov
24		 Toledo F+ C- A+ F F 48% 7% 45% A- F C F F+ C+ C A- B- C+ C+ C- C- C+ 36% 36% 28% A B- D D D- C C C C
0.99 57% 75% 19% -8 +2 0.91 35% 0.6 .23 17% .25 79% .19 1.09 56% 44% 36% +2 -2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 16% .29 76% .22
Nov
26		 St. Francis (PA) F D+ F F 57% 0% 43% A+ F+ B+ F D+ F A+ F A+ B+ A+ F F D 30% 28% 41% B- D+ D- A+ B A+ F+ D- F+
1.01 58% 28% -4 +4 1.02 40% 0.9 .34 26% .55 63% .35 0.87 36% 46% 42% +1 -2 1.00 31% 0.6 .20 30% .31 75% .23
Dec
1		 West Georgia F D- A+ B C- 51% 7% 42% B+ C C F F F A F B- D B+ D+ D+ C- 42% 31% 28% D- D+ C- B C+ F C A+ A-
1.03 52% 75% 38% +2 +3 1.11 31% 0.6 .18 20% .42 62% .26 1.08 47% 41% 35% -3 -1 0.93 31% 0.9 .29 6% .27 50% .14
Dec
14		 UAB A+ F B A+ A- 42% 9% 49% A- A C+ A B A C+ C C+ F+ D F F F 37% 26% 37% B- F C+ F F B+ A C+ A
1.27 45% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 27% 1.1 .30 12% .27 75% .20 1.25 65% 57% 40% +11 -1 1.22 31% 1.4 .45 15% .22 69% .16
Dec
20		 Marshall F+ F F D+ F 47% 4% 49% A+ F+ C- D+ D+ D+ B+ A+ A+ A D- A- A+ A+ 25% 26% 49% B- A+ D- A+ B+ B- C A B-
1.00 42% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.86 32% 0.8 .27 19% .41 83% .33 0.90 69% 29% 19% -11 -2 0.77 37% 0.8 .28 20% .25 64% .16
Dec
31		 Texas St. A+ B+ F A+ A+ 65% 7% 28% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B- D F F+ 40% 27% 33% C D- F F F C B- A+ B+
1.47 67% 0% 69% +18 +4 1.46 45% 1.3 .59 12% .53 63% .33 1.18 52% 43% 41% +3 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 19% .25 64% .16
Jan
3		 South Alabama D F D D+ F+ 20% 6% 73% C D- B F D B D- F F A A B A+ A+ 43% 14% 43% C- A+ F A+ C B+ F C- F
1.01 40% 33% 31% -8 +1 0.88 37% 0.8 .29 15% .14 57% .08 0.84 44% 33% 17% -18 +1 0.69 31% 0.9 .28 17% .43 67% .29
Jan
7		 Arkansas St. D A+ F B- C 30% 26% 44% D C- D+ F F C+ D- F F C- A F F F 23% 19% 58% A D- C- D- D B- F C- F
0.98 76% 13% 36% 0 -1 1.00 23% 0.7 .15 15% .28 61% .17 1.14 45% 56% 39% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
10		 Louisiana A+ D- F A+ B 43% 15% 43% C B A+ A+ A+ D- F F F D+ F D- F F 26% 23% 51% D- F A- A+ A+ D+ C- F D+
1.41 50% 14% 55% +7 +1 1.17 58% 1.7 .97 20% .22 45% .10 1.10 75% 45% 42% +12 -1 1.23 20% 0.3 .07 16% .24 77% .19
Jan
14		 Southern Miss A B+ F A+ A 52% 7% 41% A A A- F+ C+ A+ F+ C+ D- B C F A+ B 41% 26% 33% D- B- D- D+ D- A+ C+ A B+
1.29 64% 0% 50% +10 +3 1.28 36% 0.8 .30 11% .27 71% .19 0.92 58% 50% 13% -7 0 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 26% .34 67% .23
Jan
17		 Arkansas St. A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 43% 2% 55% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A C+ A+ A C- A+ F F+ A- 45% 12% 43% D B+ B F D F D- A+ B
1.48 77% 100% 36% +11 +3 1.29 41% 1.5 .59 10% .35 90% .32 1.11 32% 50% 38% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.3 .44 13% .38 55% .21
Jan
21		 Old Dominion D F A+ F F 43% 18% 39% C+ F C- A+ B D+ A+ A+ A+ A- D D- A+ B- 39% 31% 30% C+ B- A A A C- F+ C+ F+
1.02 38% 60% 18% -14 +1 0.75 29% 1.3 .38 16% .50 85% .42 0.94 63% 42% 17% -5 -1 0.90 17% 0.9 .14 15% .36 72% .26
Jan
24		 Georgia Southern A D+ B- C- 50% 0% 50% A C A+ B A+ D+ A+ C A+ F+ D F B- F 31% 8% 61% C F+ C- F F D- B- D- C+
1.30 55% 36% 0 +3 1.09 50% 1.2 .59 20% .47 75% .35 1.22 60% 100% 30% +2 +1 1.08 29% 1.8 .52 13% .31 76% .23
Jan
29		 James Madison F F F+ F F 44% 13% 43% B F F+ D F+ B+ D- F+ F+ C- D B+ F F 46% 15% 40% D F+ C- C- C- B F B+ D
0.97 46% 29% 26% -12 +1 0.81 22% 0.9 .20 9% .30 67% .20 1.11 64% 29% 42% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.1 .33 20% .38 65% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Appalachian St. F C D+ F F 37% 12% 51% B- F F F F C- F A+ F D F D- D- F 15% 15% 70% A- F C A+ A- A A+ F B+
0.75 56% 33% 16% -15 +1 0.73 22% 0.5 .11 15% .08 100% .08 1.12 86% 43% 36% +7 -1 1.15 30% 0.7 .20 20% .17 88% .15
Feb
4		 Georgia St. B A F D C+ 51% 4% 45% A+ B B+ F D A- F D- F B- B+ D- A C 31% 35% 33% B C+ C D- D+ D D A+ C
1.16 69% 0% 30% +2 +3 1.12 40% 0.6 .25 13% .21 67% .14 0.99 47% 41% 25% -7 -2 0.83 27% 1.2 .32 14% .35 68% .24
Feb
7		 Akron A- F F A+ B 38% 16% 46% C+ B- F+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ B+ B F B+ A B+ 35% 17% 48% B- B+ A+ A- A+ F B- A- B
1.23 37% 25% 52% +2 +1 1.08 26% 1.3 .35 11% .30 88% .26 1.08 72% 33% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 11% .23 69% .16
Feb
11		 Texas St. D F+ F+ D F 26% 18% 56% D- F B+ F C- F A+ B A+ D- F F A F 37% 44% 19% A+ F B- D- C B F F F
0.97 50% 29% 32% -5 -1 0.90 35% 0.7 .26 24% .53 77% .41 1.16 69% 63% 25% +13 -3 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 22% .38 84% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 6.5 33.6 26.0 66.2 1st
2nd 0.8 13.5 9.3 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.4 4.8 0.1 7.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 0.2 2.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.4 0.6 5th
6th 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.6 5.4 24.9 43.1 26.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 26.0    20.8 5.2
13-5 78.0% 33.6    12.5 17.1 3.9 0.2
12-6 26.0% 6.5    0.3 1.4 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 66.2% 66.2 33.6 23.6 6.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 26.0% 39.3% 39.3% 12.6 0.0 4.1 5.6 0.5 0.0 15.8
13-5 43.1% 34.4% 34.4% 13.2 1.5 9.3 3.9 0.1 28.3
12-6 24.9% 21.7% 21.7% 13.4 0.3 2.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 19.5
11-7 5.4% 14.3% 14.3% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 4.6
10-8 0.6% 5.3% 5.3% 14.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.3% 31.3% 0.0% 13.1 68.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.2% 100.0% 12.6 0.2 40.5 54.3 4.8 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.4%