Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#146
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#171
Pace69.5#185
Improvement-3.1#342

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#176
First Shot+1.1#150
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#263
Layup/Dunks+1.0#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#208
Freethrows+3.1#38
Improvement-1.5#298

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#133
First Shot+1.5#126
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#210
Layups/Dunks+4.2#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#159
Freethrows-1.2#257
Improvement-1.6#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.0% 25.0% 19.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 85.0% 94.0% 81.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 95.4% 91.2%
Conference Champion 29.6% 35.3% 27.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.0% 25.0% 19.4%
Second Round1.4% 2.2% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 28.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 2
Quad 35 - 57 - 8
Quad 411 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 122 @Kent St. W 103-97 OT 31%     1 - 0 +12.0 +11.5 -0.6
  Fri, Nov 7 153 @Furman W 64-61 41%     2 - 0 +6.1 -6.7 +12.9
  Fri, Nov 14 143 @Loyola Marymount L 63-74 37%     2 - 1 -6.7 -4.5 -2.3
  Sun, Nov 16 253 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-94 62%     2 - 2 -11.2 +8.6 -19.5
  Tue, Nov 18 52 @San Diego St. W 108-107 2OT 13%     3 - 2 +14.0 +17.4 -3.6
  Thu, Nov 20 32 @USC L 106-107 3OT 8%     3 - 3 +15.5 +7.1 +8.7
  Mon, Nov 24 173 Toledo L 68-75 57%     3 - 4 -8.1 -7.4 -0.8
  Wed, Nov 26 356 St. Francis (PA) W 74-64 91%     4 - 4 -3.8 -7.0 +2.7
  Mon, Dec 1 285 West Georgia L 89-93 2OT 84%     4 - 5 -13.7 -4.6 -8.3
  Sun, Dec 14 112 @UAB L 72-78 28%    
  Sat, Dec 20 170 Marshall W 78-73 66%    
  Wed, Dec 31 232 Texas St. W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 165 South Alabama W 72-67 66%    
  Wed, Jan 7 155 @Arkansas St. L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 318 @Louisiana W 70-63 73%    
  Wed, Jan 14 219 Southern Miss W 77-70 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 155 Arkansas St. W 79-75 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 220 @Old Dominion W 74-73 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 226 @Georgia Southern W 77-75 56%    
  Thu, Jan 29 169 James Madison W 76-71 67%    
  Sat, Jan 31 283 Appalachian St. W 72-62 83%    
  Wed, Feb 4 334 @Georgia St. W 76-68 77%    
  Wed, Feb 11 232 @Texas St. W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 219 @Southern Miss W 74-73 55%    
  Wed, Feb 18 357 @Louisiana Monroe W 80-68 85%    
  Sat, Feb 21 165 @South Alabama L 69-70 45%    
  Tue, Feb 24 318 Louisiana W 73-60 87%    
  Fri, Feb 27 357 Louisiana Monroe W 83-65 94%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.5 8.1 8.4 5.9 2.6 0.5 29.6 1st
2nd 0.4 3.4 7.6 4.9 1.6 0.1 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 6.2 3.7 0.8 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.0 3.8 0.7 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 3.8 0.7 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.6 1.1 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.6 0.2 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.2 3.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.7 9.7 12.8 14.8 15.5 13.8 10.1 6.0 2.6 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
16-2 97.6% 5.9    5.2 0.6 0.0
15-3 83.3% 8.4    6.2 2.0 0.2
14-4 58.9% 8.1    3.7 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.7% 3.5    0.8 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 18.9 7.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 54.8% 54.8% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.6% 52.9% 52.9% 12.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.2
16-2 6.0% 45.2% 45.2% 12.8 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.3
15-3 10.1% 41.7% 41.7% 13.3 0.4 2.1 1.5 0.2 5.9
14-4 13.8% 33.3% 33.3% 13.6 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.2
13-5 15.5% 22.4% 22.4% 14.0 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 12.0
12-6 14.8% 15.7% 15.7% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 12.4
11-7 12.8% 10.2% 10.2% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 11.5
10-8 9.7% 5.5% 5.5% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.2
9-9 6.7% 2.9% 2.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5
8-10 3.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.9
7-11 2.1% 2.1
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.0% 21.0% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.2 8.0 3.1 0.3 79.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.2 10.0 60.0 30.0