IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-4.9	#251
Expected Predictive Rating	-2.8	#215

Pace	75.0	#42
Improvement	-0.9	#231

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#191	D	C	B-	B-	B+
Defense	#292	D	D	B	D-	D-

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	40%	#137	1.00	#337	-2.2	#258
2 Pt. Jumpers	12%	#339	0.89	#35	-2.5	#303
Three Pointers	48%	#43	0.92	#290	+1.4	#133
1st FG Attempt			0.95	#274	-3.3	#273
Freethrows	20.1	#68	70%	#237	14.2	#102
Second Chance	28.8%	#235	1.08	#136	0.31	#193
Turnovers					15.0%	#87
Total Offense					-1.0	#191

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	43%	#60	1.23	#268	-4.2	#315
2 Pt. Jumpers	16%	#316	0.85	#316	+1.0	#120
Three Pointers	41%	#188	1.05	#227	-0.7	#205
1st FG Attempt			1.10	#300	-3.9	#300
Freethrows	20.5	#317	74%	#258	15.1	#321
Second Chance	36.3%	#345	1.02	#144	0.37	#299
Turnovers					18.5%	#69
Total Defense					-3.9	#292

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	2.5%	#37	1.9%	#334
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-8.7%	#319	5.6%	#283
Possession Length	16.3	#77	16.8	#102
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.14	#251	0.20	#281
Improvement	-1.0	#234	+0.1	#179

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.2%	3.8%	1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.9	15.0

.500 or above	75.2%	90.0%	68.8%
.500 or above in Conference	73.3%	89.1%	66.4%
Conference Champion	1.1%	3.4%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	2.1%	3.8%	1.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 30.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 6	3 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 7	16 - 14

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Tue, Nov 4	267 @East Carolina	L	89 - 92	42%	-2	0 - 1		-6	+6	C-	A-	C	-12	D	F	D
Sat, Nov 8	205 UNC Asheville	W	93 - 90	53%	-1	1 - 1		-3	+6	C	F	A+	-9	F	F	A+
Tue, Nov 11	225 @Florida Gulf Coast	W	95 - 94	34%	+3	2 - 1		+0	+16	A+	D-	C+	-16	D+	F	C+
Tue, Nov 18	113 @Georgia Tech	L	66 - 68	14%	+1	2 - 2		+4	-6	F	B	F	+11	A+	D+	A+
Fri, Nov 21	111 @Florida St.	L	72 - 98	14%	-14	2 - 3		-19	-10	F	F	C	-6	D	B-	D+
Mon, Nov 24	213 Youngstown St.	L	61 - 67	43%	-4	2 - 4		-9	-12	F	F	C	+2	C-	F	A+
Tue, Nov 25	345 Texas San Antonio	L	64 - 77	75%	+1	2 - 5		-25	-17	F	D+	D+	-8	C+	F	F
Sat, Nov 29	298 Houston Christian	W	80 - 62	71%	+6	3 - 5		+7	+3	C	C-	A+	+5	B-	C+	A+
Wed, Dec 3	228 Louisiana Tech	W	77 - 69	57%	+4	4 - 5		+1	+8	A+	B-	C+	-7	F	A+	C
Sat, Dec 6	363 @Gardner-Webb	W	88 - 84	85%	+3	5 - 5		-12	+2	D	F	A	-14	F	D	C
Sat, Dec 13	338 @West Georgia	W	91 - 85	63%	+9	6 - 5		-2	+10	C-	A+	C	-12	F	F	A+
Thu, Dec 18	273 Georgia St.	W	90 - 67	66%	+8	7 - 5	1 - 0	+14	+20	D+	A+	A+	-5	F	A	B+
Sat, Dec 20	231 James Madison	W	96 - 92 OT	58%	-3	8 - 5	2 - 0	-3	+7	D	D+	A+	-10	B-	F	C+
Thu, Jan 1	252 @Coastal Carolina	W	82 - 81 OT	39%	+3	9 - 5	3 - 0	-1	+3	D	B+	D+	-4	A-	F	C+
Sat, Jan 3	240 @Old Dominion	W	93 - 86	37%	+12	10 - 5	4 - 0	+6	+7	B	C	B-	-3	A	D	F
Sat, Jan 10	191 @South Alabama	L	71 - 87	28%	-9	10 - 6	4 - 1	-15	-2	F	F	A+	-12	F	A-	A+
Thu, Jan 15	240 Old Dominion	W	87 - 84	59%	-2	11 - 6	5 - 1	-4	+10	A+	D+	C-	-14	F	D	C-
Sat, Jan 17	252 Coastal Carolina	L	75 - 79 OT	62%	+2	11 - 7	5 - 2	-12	-4	F	C+	A+	-7	C+	C-	A+
Thu, Jan 22	145 Arkansas St.	L	68 - 85	39%	-9	11 - 8	5 - 3	-19	-11	F	A+	D	-7	F	A+	A
Sat, Jan 24	112 Troy	L	76 - 81	30%
Thu, Jan 29	361 @Louisiana Monroe	W	87 - 79	77%
Sat, Jan 31	312 @Louisiana	W	71 - 70	54%
Wed, Feb 4	263 Texas St.	W	78 - 74	64%
Wed, Feb 11	206 Appalachian St.	W	73 - 72	54%
Sat, Feb 14	163 Marshall	L	81 - 83	43%
Thu, Feb 19	273 @Georgia St.	L	76 - 78	44%
Sat, Feb 21	206 @Appalachian St.	L	70 - 75	32%
Wed, Feb 25	231 @James Madison	L	76 - 80	35%
Fri, Feb 27	163 @Marshall	L	78 - 86	25%
Totals						16 - 13	10 - 8	-5	-1	D	C	B-	-4	D	D	B

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.1				1.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.6	2.5	1.9	0.4	0.0				5.3	2nd
3rd											0.6	5.3	4.9	1.0	0.1					11.9	3rd
4th										0.1	4.9	7.6	1.1	0.0						13.8	4th
5th									0.0	1.5	9.3	2.6	0.1							13.5	5th
6th									0.1	6.3	5.7	0.2								12.3	6th
7th								0.0	1.5	8.8	1.2									11.6	7th
8th								0.1	4.9	4.5	0.1									9.5	8th
9th								1.1	6.2	0.8										8.2	9th
10th						0.0	0.1	3.1	2.7	0.1										6.0	10th
11th						0.0	0.7	2.8	0.4											4.0	11th
12th						0.1	1.2	0.9												2.2	12th
13th						0.2	0.4	0.0												0.7	13th
14th						0.0														0.0	14th

Total						0.4	2.5	8.0	15.8	22.1	21.8	16.3	8.7	3.3	0.9	0.2					Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	76.7%	0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	51.4%	0.5	0.1	0.3	0.1
13-5	12.0%	0.4	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.4%	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.1%	1.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	0.2%	10.0%	10.0%		13.3													0.0	0.0			0.1
14-4	0.9%	13.0%	13.0%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.1		0.8
13-5	3.3%	10.7%	10.7%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	3.0
12-6	8.7%	7.6%	7.6%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.1	8.1
11-7	16.3%	3.5%	3.5%		15.1													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.1	15.7
10-8	21.8%	1.5%	1.5%		15.3														0.0	0.2	0.1	21.5
9-9	22.1%	0.5%	0.5%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.0	22.0
8-10	15.8%	0.1%	0.1%		15.5															0.0	0.0	15.8
7-11	8.0%	0.1%	0.1%		16.0																0.0	8.0
6-12	2.5%																					2.5
5-13	0.4%																					0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	2.2%	2.2%	0.0%	15.0																	97.8	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%
Lose Out	0.4%