Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.0 #252
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #192
Pace 69.2 #170
Improvement +0.2 #176

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #288 D- D- B+ D F
Defense #197 B- B- F C A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #354 1.02 #321 -7.3 #355
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #39 0.78 #144 +3.0 #51
Three Pointers 42% #165 0.94 #272 -1.2 #219
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #321 -5.4 #329
Freethrows 15.1 #311 74% #132 11.1 #290
Second Chance 24.1% #334 0.99 #252 0.24 #332
Turnovers 14.1% #49
Total Offense -4.2 #288

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.05 #64 +5.3 #34
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #7 0.83 #291 -4.8 #362
Three Pointers 37% #291 0.99 #149 +2.5 #89
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #89 +3.1 #80
Freethrows 17.9 #198 73% #220 13.1 #207
Second Chance 27.5% #72 1.06 #199 0.29 #106
Turnovers 11.7% #360
Total Defense -0.8 #197

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.4% #345 -3.5% #11
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.7% #283 -2.1% #145
Possession Length 18.6 #301 16.2 #29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #327 0.14 #63
Improvement +3.3 #29 -3.1 #334

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.5% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.0
.500 or above 68.6% 79.5% 52.6%
.500 or above in Conference 71.0% 82.9% 53.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.9% 2.4% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 411 - 817 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 260 @Western Michigan L 71 - 76 40% +1  0 - 1 -7 -10 F D F +3 B- A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 130 Winthrop W 72 - 66 35% +7  1 - 1 +5 -4 B B F +9 A A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 216 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 74 33% -7  1 - 2 -7 -2 F A- A+ -6 B F F
 Fri, Nov 21 356 @Western Illinois W 84 - 64 72% +13  2 - 2 +9 +4 D+ D- C- +4 A F F
 Sat, Nov 22 297 North Dakota W 75 - 58 61% +10  3 - 2 +9 -8 D+ F A+ +16 A+ B+ D+
 Sun, Nov 23 90 @Illinois St. L 42 - 94 10% -30  3 - 3 -43 -28 F F A- -11 F A- F
 Sun, Nov 30 301 Alabama A&M W 67 - 60 72% +6  4 - 3 -4 -9 F F C +5 B A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 303 @South Carolina Upstate L 78 - 85 OT 51% +7  4 - 4 -12 -5 D- F B- -6 C A F
 Sat, Dec 6 130 @Winthrop W 88 - 84 18% -1  5 - 4 +9 +17 B C A+ -8 A- F D
 Sat, Dec 13 79 @Grand Canyon L 61 - 82 8% -19  5 - 5 -11 -2 D+ F A+ -10 A- F F
 Thu, Dec 18 206 @Appalachian St. L 49 - 67 31% -4  5 - 6 0 - 1 -18 -19 F F C -0 F A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 240 @Old Dominion W 76 - 74 36% +1  6 - 6 1 - 1 +1 -0 F F A+ +1 C D+ B
 Mon, Dec 22 159 @Saint Joseph's W 68 - 62 22% +2  7 - 6 +9 -2 D C C +11 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 1 251 Georgia Southern L 81 - 82 OT 61% -3  7 - 7 1 - 2 -9 -4 F B- A -5 B- D D
 Sat, Jan 3 273 Georgia St. L 71 - 89 66% +1  7 - 8 1 - 3 -27 +3 D- A+ D -31 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 240 Old Dominion L 66 - 70 59% -7  7 - 9 1 - 4 -11 -9 F F C -3 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 206 Appalachian St. W 67 - 62 53% -5  8 - 9 2 - 4 -1 +6 A+ D- B -6 A+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 163 @Marshall W 85 - 83 23% +5  9 - 9 3 - 4 +5 +13 A+ D- C- -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 251 @Georgia Southern W 79 - 75 OT 38% -2  10 - 9 4 - 4 +2 -1 F F D+ +2 A+ C F
 Thu, Jan 22 263 Texas St. W 72 - 70 64% +3  11 - 9 5 - 4 -7 -2 F F A+ -5 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 24 244 Southern Miss W 73 - 70 60%
 Thu, Jan 29 191 @South Alabama L 66 - 72 29%
 Sat, Jan 31 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 80 - 72 77%
 Wed, Feb 4 145 Arkansas St. L 77 - 80 39%
 Sat, Feb 7 176 Massachusetts L 75 - 76 47%
 Thu, Feb 12 312 @Louisiana W 66 - 65 54%
 Wed, Feb 18 231 James Madison W 74 - 72 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 163 Marshall L 74 - 76 44%
 Tue, Feb 24 273 @Georgia St. L 70 - 72 43%
 Fri, Feb 27 231 @James Madison L 71 - 75 35%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 9 -5 -4 D- D- B+ -1 B- B- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.4 0.2 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.1 3.8 0.4 9.8 3rd
4th 0.1 4.9 6.9 1.0 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 9.8 2.5 0.1 13.8 5th
6th 0.1 6.6 6.2 0.3 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 9.3 1.4 12.2 7th
8th 0.1 5.3 5.0 0.1 10.5 8th
9th 1.2 6.4 0.8 8.4 9th
10th 0.1 3.4 3.0 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.6 0.4 4.7 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 0.9 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.4 2.6 9.3 16.7 23.2 22.8 15.4 7.2 2.1 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 30.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 16.4% 16.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 2.1% 13.9% 13.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
12-6 7.2% 6.0% 6.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.7
11-7 15.4% 3.8% 3.8% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 14.8
10-8 22.8% 1.7% 1.7% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 22.5
9-9 23.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 23.2
8-10 16.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 16.7
7-11 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.2
6-12 2.6% 2.6
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 14.8 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%