Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.0 145
Results Rating +0.9 144
Consistency 0.15 143
Pace 72.9 61
Improvement -3.9 319

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 128 D+ B- B- B+ B
Defense C 192 C C C D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 161 D- 50% 339 -2.6 279
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 336 D 34% 310 -3.6 341
Three Pointers 48% 40 C 34% 190 +3.6 65
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 49 D -3.5 304
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 263
Second Chance B- 33.4% 91 C 1.04 158 B- 0.35 89
Opponents' Steals B 7.8% 37
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 180
Turnovers B- 15.0% 78
Freethrows B+ 0.36 19 C+ 74% 136 B+ 0.27 24
Total Offense C+ +1.5 128

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 50% 156 C- 11.4% 206
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 163 C+ 4.4% 139
Three Pointers D+ 79% 279 C- 1.1% 258
Total B- 59% 98 C 5.6% 187


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 244 C+ 57% 136 -1.5 120
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 248 F 45% 351 +0.5 228
Three Pointers 45% 68 C+ 33% 136 +1.4 259
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 200 C +0.1 187
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 186
Second Chance C+ 29.0% 132 D+ 1.10 281 C 0.32 215
Turnovers from Steals C 9.3% 197
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 169
Turnovers C 16.6% 187
Freethrows D+ 0.33 270 D+ 74% 267 D+ 0.24 276
Total Defense C -0.5 192

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 79 C- 9.4% 230
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 19% 58 D 2.6% 311
Three Pointers C+ 81% 116 C- 0.6% 241
Total B- 52% 97 D+ 4.2% 294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.5 87 16.9 113
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 205 0.16 124
Consistency 0.11 99 0.13 203
Improvement -4.8 349 +0.8 147

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 155 144 128
Results Rating Rank 167 142 109
Conference Record 13 - 3 13 - 3 13 - 3
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20% 28% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round20% 28% 0%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 14 - 7
Quad 416 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 204 Queens W 81 - 74 63% +2  72% 1 - 0 C+ +5 D+ -3 F A B- A- +8 A F+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 105 @George Mason L 90 - 96 27% -0  47% 1 - 1 C +1 A- +10 B F A+ F+ -8 F B- B
 Tue, Nov 11 228 @Coastal Carolina L 66 - 72 57% -7  1% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F+ -8 D F+ C+ C+ +1 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 178 Mercer W 105 - 69 69% +16  94% 2 - 2 A+ +32 A- +11 B+ B A- A+ +16 A B A+
 Tue, Nov 18 17 @Arkansas L 83 - 84 4% -1  37% 2 - 3 A +21 A +13 B+ A+ A- A- +7 A D+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 345 @Jackson St. W 80 - 62 85% +8  80% 3 - 3 B- +8 B +6 C+ C+ B+ B +4 F+ B B-
 Tue, Nov 25 15 @Nebraska L 73 - 80 4% -2  28% 3 - 4 B+ +15 A +12 A B- A B- +3 A B F
 Sat, Nov 29 359 South Carolina St. W 101 - 79 96% +14  91% 4 - 4 C+ +3 A +13 B A+ D F -11 F F+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 219 @LIU Brooklyn W 94 - 92 OT 56% +4  71% 5 - 4 C +1 A +12 D- A+ A F -10 F+ F D
 Sat, Dec 6 228 Coastal Carolina L 84 - 88 77% +1  51% 5 - 5 D -11 B+ +8 D+ A+ C- F -19 F F+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 300 @North Dakota L 88 - 90 73% +2  48% 5 - 6 D+ -7 B+ +8 B B+ A- F -16 D+ F F
 Sun, Dec 28 12 @Texas Tech L 57 - 87 4% -26  0% 5 - 7 D+ -8 F+ -10 F D- F B- +2 C+ C+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 253 @Longwood L 70 - 82 62% -7  2% 5 - 8 0 - 1 D- -14 D+ -3 F C+ A+ F -12 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 360 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 77 97% -5  24% 6 - 8 1 - 1 D -10 B +6 C+ F A- F -15 F A- F
 Wed, Jan 7 250 Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 80% -2  26% 7 - 8 2 - 1 C- -4 D -6 F+ C+ C- C+ +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 307 @South Carolina Upstate W 71 - 50 74% +15  89% 8 - 8 3 - 1 A- +15 C- -1 C- C- D A+ +17 A+ C B
 Wed, Jan 14 94 High Point W 92 - 75 43% +15  93% 9 - 8 4 - 1 A +20 A+ +15 B A+ A+ B +5 B- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 246 @UNC Asheville W 69 - 67 61% +6  91% 10 - 8 5 - 1 C +0 D- -7 F C- F A- +7 A+ B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 243 Radford W 76 - 75 79% -2  23% 11 - 8 6 - 1 D+ -7 D+ -2 B+ D C+ D+ -4 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 271 @Presbyterian W 82 - 72 66% +5  92% 12 - 8 7 - 1 B- +7 B- +5 F B+ A+ B- +2 B A- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 246 UNC Asheville W 84 - 71 80% +7  98% 13 - 8 8 - 1 B- +5 A +12 B A D- D -6 C A F
 Wed, Feb 4 243 @Radford W 80 - 78 60% +3  65% 14 - 8 9 - 1 C +0 C +1 B- F B+ C -1 C C+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 253 Longwood W 79 - 74 81% +2  65% 15 - 8 10 - 1 C- -3 D- -7 F D+ C B- +3 B+ B+ F+
 Thu, Feb 12 360 @Gardner-Webb W 103 - 85 92% +13  93% 16 - 8 11 - 1 C+ +3 A +12 B+ A C- F -10 F D+ C+
 Thu, Feb 19 307 South Carolina Upstate W 68 - 64 88% +2  57% 17 - 8 12 - 1 D+ -8 D- -7 F A+ F C -0 A- C+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 94 @High Point L 87 - 89 23% -8  2% 17 - 9 12 - 2 B- +7 B+ +9 F+ A+ A+ C- -2 D C A-
 Thu, Feb 26 250 @Charleston Southern L 84 - 86 62% -4  4% 17 - 10 12 - 3 C- -4 D+ -3 D- B F C -1 C- B C
 Sat, Feb 28 271 Presbyterian W 74 - 70 83% +3  75% 18 - 10 13 - 3 D+ -5 D -5 F+ F A+ C +0 B+ D+ C-
 Fri, Mar 6 250 Charleston Southern W 85 - 79 72%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 3 +1 C+ +1 B+ D B C +0 C C+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D- D C D 39% 23% 48% B D+ B- C B- B- B+ C+ B+ C C+ F C+ C 37% 18% 45% C- C C+ D+ C C D+ D+ D+
1.11 50% 34% 34% -3 +1 0.97 33% 1.0 .35 15% .36 74% .27 1.09 57% 45% 33% 0 0 1.03 29% 1.1 .32 17% .33 74% .27
Nov
3		 Queens D+ F F F+ F 33% 22% 45% D F B A A B- A+ A A+ A- C F A+ A 35% 18% 47% C+ A F C+ F+ A+ B- F C-
1.12 47% 27% 30% -8 0 0.84 39% 1.3 .49 14% .50 81% .40 1.03 61% 56% 21% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 24% .29 88% .25
Nov
7		 George Mason A- A+ D B B+ 19% 22% 59% D B C- F F A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F B F F 36% 13% 51% D F F A+ B- B F C F
1.17 73% 31% 37% +4 -2 1.07 24% 0.2 .04 8% .41 86% .35 1.25 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 44% 0.6 .28 18% .69 72% .50
Nov
11		 Coastal Carolina F+ F C D- F 44% 19% 37% A D F B+ F+ C+ A- F C- C+ A A F F 35% 15% 50% F F D F F A+ F A+ D
0.92 42% 40% 30% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.2 .17 11% .36 57% .20 1.01 44% 29% 48% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.3 .39 24% .39 57% .22
Nov
15		 Mercer A- C+ B A+ B+ 42% 19% 39% C+ B+ C+ A- B A- A+ F+ A+ A+ C+ F A+ A 27% 29% 43% A A A+ F B A+ F+ A+ C
1.30 58% 45% 45% +8 0 1.19 34% 1.2 .39 14% .53 70% .37 0.85 57% 53% 18% -6 -2 0.86 19% 1.4 .27 23% .42 62% .26
Nov
18		 Arkansas A B F A+ A- 31% 19% 51% C B+ D A+ A+ A- F C- F A- F A+ C A- 37% 31% 33% A A A+ F D+ C+ D+ F F
1.17 61% 0% 43% +1 0 1.03 24% 2.3 .53 14% .10 67% .07 1.18 79% 19% 35% +2 -1 1.04 24% 2.0 .48 13% .35 91% .32
Nov
23		 Jackson St. B B- F A- C+ 37% 11% 52% C+ C+ D A C+ B+ F A+ F B C- F C- F 18% 33% 49% A F+ B- B+ B B- A+ A+ A+
1.24 65% 17% 39% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.3 .42 12% .18 90% .16 0.96 56% 50% 33% +3 -3 1.02 24% 0.9 .21 20% .16 63% .10
Nov
25		 Nebraska A A+ C+ B+ A+ 7% 29% 64% D A A+ F+ B- A C+ F C- B- C- C- B- A- 25% 18% 57% A A B B B F A+ F A
1.06 100% 38% 36% +5 -3 1.05 38% 0.7 .27 16% .22 62% .14 1.16 67% 36% 32% 0 -1 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 7% .16 90% .14
Nov
29		 South Carolina St. A A- A- B B+ 45% 7% 48% C+ B A A+ A+ D F A+ F F C D- F F 39% 30% 31% D- F C F F+ D A+ C A+
1.38 72% 50% 37% +9 +2 1.25 48% 1.7 .84 19% .25 87% .22 1.08 52% 44% 47% +6 -1 1.11 29% 1.3 .37 19% .20 67% .13
Dec
2		 LIU Brooklyn A D+ F F F 56% 12% 32% B+ D- B+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F D- C- F F 43% 31% 26% B+ F+ D+ F F D F F F
1.23 53% 14% 28% -9 +2 0.89 40% 1.4 .55 13% .44 83% .36 1.21 65% 41% 43% +7 -1 1.15 36% 1.3 .45 18% .40 80% .32
Dec
6		 Coastal Carolina B+ C+ F F+ D 29% 21% 50% B D+ A+ C+ A+ C- A+ C- A+ F A F F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F B- F F+ F+ F D F
1.20 57% 30% 29% -6 -1 0.90 44% 1.0 .46 13% .56 71% .40 1.26 44% 54% 43% +6 -1 1.12 24% 1.4 .32 11% .42 77% .32
Dec
18		 North Dakota B+ D- A+ A+ B- 43% 8% 50% B- B F+ A+ B+ A- A+ D- A+ F A+ F F D+ 41% 4% 55% F+ D+ F F F F F C- F
1.27 53% 67% 45% +8 +2 1.23 26% 1.9 .48 16% .74 67% .50 1.30 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 10% .51 72% .37
Dec
28		 Texas Tech F+ F A+ F F 35% 21% 44% A F A F D- F A+ D+ A+ B- B F D+ B- 33% 14% 53% D C+ B- C- C+ A F F F
0.81 35% 70% 14% -14 0 0.73 36% 0.4 .16 21% .41 65% .27 1.23 56% 71% 38% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 20% .46 88% .41
Dec
31		 Longwood D+ F F F F 48% 8% 44% B+ F A D- C+ A+ A+ A A+ F C- B- F F 52% 13% 35% F F F F F C- D- B- D
1.04 39% 25% 24% -17 +2 0.73 39% 0.8 .30 12% .54 78% .42 1.21 60% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 44% 1.1 .50 19% .38 71% .27
Jan
3		 Gardner-Webb B A+ F D C 46% 13% 41% B- C+ A+ F F A- A+ A A+ F C- F F+ F 27% 17% 56% A- F A+ C A- F D- A+ C
1.30 86% 0% 32% +6 +1 1.17 47% 0.5 .24 12% .54 81% .44 1.14 57% 67% 38% +8 0 1.17 14% 1.0 .14 10% .31 58% .18
Jan
7		 Charleston Southern D D F F F 54% 12% 34% A+ F+ B+ D- C+ C- A+ F B C+ A- F A+ A+ 43% 10% 47% D+ A+ C- F F F F A+ D+
1.05 50% 29% 20% -13 +2 0.81 36% 0.9 .32 13% .46 61% .28 1.00 48% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 30% 1.5 .45 12% .34 57% .19
Jan
10		 South Carolina Upstate C- F+ F B+ D+ 42% 6% 52% B+ C- A+ F C- D B+ F C- A+ A A+ A+ A+ 55% 22% 22% D- A+ A+ F C B C+ C- C
1.06 48% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 18% .35 58% .20 0.75 44% 0% 18% -21 +1 0.61 18% 1.4 .26 21% .26 71% .19
Jan
14		 High Point A+ B D B- B- 44% 6% 50% A- B C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ B F B- A B- 35% 12% 53% B- B- C A+ A+ C F B F
1.31 64% 33% 36% +4 +2 1.14 33% 1.5 .52 13% .54 67% .36 1.06 71% 33% 27% -2 +1 1.00 32% 0.5 .15 14% .46 71% .33
Jan
17		 UNC Asheville D- F A+ B- F 43% 2% 54% A F C+ D C- F A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 23% 35% 42% C+ A+ C- A B D- F D F
0.98 25% 100% 36% -11 +3 0.85 32% 0.8 .27 21% .54 80% .44 0.96 42% 50% 18% -10 -3 0.77 30% 0.8 .23 14% .42 72% .30
Jan
21		 Radford D+ F C+ A+ B 44% 10% 46% B B+ F+ B- D C+ C+ F D+ D+ F+ F F F 48% 5% 48% F F A- C- B A+ F D+ F
1.11 48% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 24% 1.1 .27 17% .34 63% .21 1.09 65% 50% 40% +8 +3 1.24 23% 1.0 .23 28% .48 75% .36
Jan
24		 Presbyterian B- F+ B- F F 55% 13% 32% B+ F B+ B- B+ A+ A+ B A+ B- A+ F A+ B- 30% 33% 37% A B B+ B+ A- C+ F F F
1.15 48% 43% 24% -10 +2 0.87 37% 1.1 .39 7% .53 71% .38 1.01 43% 53% 24% -5 -2 0.87 27% 0.9 .24 20% .44 88% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UNC Asheville A F A A+ B 33% 4% 62% B B B+ A- A D- A+ A+ A+ D D+ F A+ C 28% 32% 40% D+ C B- A+ A F F F F
1.30 47% 50% 43% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 19% .53 89% .47 1.09 62% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 12% .42 83% .35
Feb
4		 Radford C C+ A+ C B- 43% 13% 43% B- B- D- F F B+ B- F+ C- C C C B- C 37% 14% 49% D+ C F A+ C+ C- A- D B
1.12 61% 57% 35% +4 +1 1.13 26% 0.7 .17 15% .35 67% .23 1.09 57% 38% 32% -2 +1 1.00 37% 0.7 .27 17% .29 76% .22
Feb
7		 Longwood D- B- F F F 32% 11% 57% C F F A+ D+ C A+ A+ A+ B- F B+ A+ B+ 25% 31% 43% A+ B+ A- C+ B+ F+ F A+ F
1.02 67% 20% 22% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.6 .22 18% .63 88% .55 0.96 69% 31% 23% -7 -2 0.84 27% 0.9 .24 16% .54 63% .34
Feb
12		 Gardner-Webb A F+ A+ A+ B 44% 2% 55% A B+ B+ A- A C- A+ C+ A+ F D+ D- F F 49% 9% 42% F+ F C F+ D+ C+ D- B+ D+
1.34 54% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.27 42% 1.3 .53 16% .43 75% .32 1.11 59% 40% 43% +7 +2 1.20 23% 1.1 .26 21% .31 63% .20
Feb
19		 South Carolina Upstate D- F A+ F F 50% 5% 45% A F B+ A+ A+ F A+ F A C A+ F A+ A 31% 12% 57% D+ A- A- F+ C+ F F F F
1.01 33% 100% 26% -15 +3 0.79 37% 1.5 .55 21% .47 60% .28 0.95 40% 50% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 1.1 .25 13% .38 77% .29
Feb
21		 High Point B+ F A+ F F 57% 2% 41% A+ F+ A A- A+ A+ C B- C+ C- D A+ D+ D 38% 2% 60% D- D B F+ C A- F D- F
1.18 48% 100% 25% -10 +4 0.90 42% 1.2 .51 14% .31 75% .23 1.20 67% 0% 36% +4 +2 1.15 28% 1.3 .38 18% .49 80% .39
Feb
26		 Charleston Southern D+ F F A- F+ 45% 17% 38% B+ D- A+ D- B F A+ F+ A C A+ F F C- 39% 8% 52% D+ C- C- A B C F+ A+ C-
1.05 37% 20% 39% -10 +1 0.85 42% 0.9 .38 16% .51 65% .33 1.07 42% 80% 41% +2 +2 1.10 30% 0.7 .20 19% .32 57% .18
Feb
28		 Presbyterian D F F B- F 48% 8% 44% A- F+ D F F A+ A+ B+ A+ C C+ F A+ A- 48% 24% 28% D B+ A F D+ C- F C- F
1.05 42% 25% 36% -7 +2 0.92 26% 0.5 .14 10% .52 73% .38 1.00 55% 55% 8% -9 0 0.85 24% 1.5 .36 19% .47 70% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0%
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 20.0% 20.0% 13.5 0.9 9.3 9.0 0.9 80.0
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 13.5 80.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.0% 100.0% 13.5 4.3 46.3 45.0 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 33.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.1%
Lose Out 27.8%