Winthrop
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#196
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#167
Pace79.1#10
Improvement-1.2#247

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#164
First Shot-0.8#201
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#110
Layup/Dunks+2.7#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#287
Freethrows+3.4#25
Improvement+1.1#128

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#240
First Shot-0.5#196
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#322
Layups/Dunks+0.2#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#280
Freethrows-0.2#192
Improvement-2.2#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 11.2% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round10.0% 11.2% 9.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Longwood (Away) - 40.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 416 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-67 67%     1 - 0 +8.5 +1.1 +5.8
  Nov 11, 2024 128   @ Virginia Tech L 52-58 27%     1 - 1 -1.7 -13.5 +11.2
  Nov 15, 2024 216   William & Mary W 86-85 63%     2 - 1 -4.5 -1.2 -3.5
  Nov 16, 2024 248   Georgia Southern L 87-89 70%     2 - 2 -9.4 -6.8 -2.2
  Nov 17, 2024 310   NC Central W 77-75 81%     3 - 2 -9.2 -2.5 -6.7
  Nov 22, 2024 21   @ Louisville L 61-76 4%     3 - 3 +3.3 -10.0 +14.9
  Nov 25, 2024 323   LIU Brooklyn W 87-65 83%     4 - 3 +10.0 +10.7 -1.3
  Dec 03, 2024 231   @ Queens W 86-78 47%     5 - 3 +6.7 +3.9 +2.2
  Dec 07, 2024 312   Coastal Carolina W 96-89 82%     6 - 3 -4.6 +16.2 -20.8
  Dec 17, 2024 82   @ Florida St. L 64-82 14%     6 - 4 -8.6 -7.3 +0.2
  Dec 21, 2024 256   Mercer W 102-97 71%     7 - 4 -2.8 +7.0 -10.8
  Dec 29, 2024 57   @ Indiana L 68-77 9%     7 - 5 +4.1 +0.0 +4.3
  Jan 02, 2025 345   South Carolina Upstate W 95-76 88%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +4.1 +10.9 -7.4
  Jan 04, 2025 177   @ Radford L 67-87 36%     8 - 6 1 - 1 -18.4 -3.4 -16.0
  Jan 08, 2025 257   @ Gardner-Webb L 83-89 53%     8 - 7 1 - 2 -8.7 +5.4 -14.0
  Jan 11, 2025 200   Longwood W 95-76 60%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +14.3 +13.7 -0.4
  Jan 15, 2025 285   Charleston Southern W 102-97 3OT 76%     10 - 7 3 - 2 -4.5 -3.3 -2.6
  Jan 18, 2025 184   @ UNC Asheville L 84-93 37%     10 - 8 3 - 3 -7.7 +4.1 -11.3
  Jan 25, 2025 96   @ High Point L 62-84 18%     10 - 9 3 - 4 -14.4 -10.7 -4.2
  Jan 29, 2025 270   Presbyterian W 76-67 72%     11 - 9 4 - 4 +0.7 +0.7 +0.3
  Feb 01, 2025 257   Gardner-Webb W 96-93 71%     12 - 9 5 - 4 -4.8 +9.4 -14.5
  Feb 05, 2025 285   @ Charleston Southern W 83-65 59%     13 - 9 6 - 4 +13.6 +7.6 +5.7
  Feb 08, 2025 345   @ South Carolina Upstate W 105-95 77%     14 - 9 7 - 4 +0.2 +9.5 -10.9
  Feb 12, 2025 177   Radford W 78-74 55%     15 - 9 8 - 4 +0.5 +0.6 -0.1
  Feb 15, 2025 96   High Point L 66-88 33%     15 - 10 8 - 5 -19.5 -13.2 -5.5
  Feb 19, 2025 270   @ Presbyterian W 81-77 54%     16 - 10 9 - 5 +0.8 +5.1 -4.3
  Feb 27, 2025 200   @ Longwood L 81-83 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 184   UNC Asheville W 84-82 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 3.2 12.3 15.5 2nd
3rd 16.7 47.0 11.7 75.4 3rd
4th 9.1 9.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 25.8 50.2 24.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 24.0% 12.0% 12.0% 14.4 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.0 21.1
10-6 50.2% 11.0% 11.0% 15.0 0.0 0.9 3.6 1.0 44.6
9-7 25.8% 6.1% 6.1% 15.2 0.1 1.0 0.5 24.3
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.2 2.4 5.9 1.5 90.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 14.4 7.6 48.3 43.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.8%
Lose Out 12.3%