NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#258
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#266
Pace66.0#261
Improvement+2.0#59

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#210
First Shot-3.2#270
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#90
Layup/Dunks-0.6#207
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#230
Freethrows+0.8#130
Improvement-0.1#187

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#299
First Shot-2.3#250
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#312
Layups/Dunks-5.7#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#26
Freethrows-1.8#299
Improvement+2.1#35
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 19.0% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 48.3% 60.0% 35.8%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 89.0% 84.1%
Conference Champion 21.2% 24.1% 18.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.7% 1.1%
First Four10.8% 10.5% 11.2%
First Round11.8% 13.8% 9.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Longwood (Home) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 412 - 814 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 83   @ George Mason L 58-75 9%     0 - 1 -7.4 -6.6 -1.3
  Nov 08, 2024 240   Gardner-Webb L 82-88 56%     0 - 2 -13.1 +2.0 -14.9
  Nov 12, 2024 134   @ High Point L 60-76 18%     0 - 3 -11.6 -4.7 -9.5
  Nov 15, 2024 235   Georgia Southern L 75-80 44%     0 - 4 -8.9 -4.9 -3.6
  Nov 16, 2024 225   William & Mary W 78-76 42%     1 - 4 -1.3 -0.7 -0.7
  Nov 17, 2024 181   @ Winthrop L 75-77 24%     1 - 5 +0.0 +3.8 -3.8
  Nov 22, 2024 253   @ Georgia St. L 79-93 37%     1 - 6 -16.2 +11.2 -28.5
  Dec 05, 2024 202   Radford L 67-70 47%     1 - 7 -7.8 -9.6 +1.8
  Dec 07, 2024 240   @ Gardner-Webb W 78-77 33%     2 - 7 -0.1 +2.9 -3.0
  Dec 10, 2024 42   @ West Virginia L 45-79 4%     2 - 8 -19.6 -14.2 -9.6
  Dec 14, 2024 220   @ Longwood W 77-70 29%     3 - 8 +7.1 +6.5 +0.7
  Dec 20, 2024 220   Longwood W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 28, 2024 313   @ N.C. A&T W 79-78 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 363   @ Coppin St. W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 06, 2025 349   @ Morgan St. W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 13, 2025 341   Delaware St. W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 25, 2025 262   South Carolina St. W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 254   @ Howard L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 03, 2025 196   @ Norfolk St. L 68-75 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 363   Coppin St. W 76-60 92%    
  Feb 17, 2025 349   Morgan St. W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 358   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 24, 2025 341   @ Delaware St. W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 254   Howard W 76-73 60%    
  Mar 03, 2025 196   Norfolk St. L 71-72 47%    
  Mar 06, 2025 262   @ South Carolina St. L 70-73 40%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.8 7.6 6.2 2.5 0.5 21.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 7.2 10.3 4.7 0.6 24.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 8.1 9.5 2.8 0.1 22.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 6.8 6.6 1.5 0.0 16.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.5 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.8 7.5 12.2 16.5 18.9 16.9 12.4 6.8 2.5 0.5 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
13-1 100.0% 2.5    2.4 0.1
12-2 91.8% 6.2    4.7 1.5 0.0
11-3 60.9% 7.6    3.7 3.3 0.5 0.0
10-4 22.4% 3.8    0.8 1.8 1.0 0.1
9-5 3.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 21.2% 21.2 12.1 6.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.5% 53.4% 53.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-1 2.5% 42.6% 42.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.4
12-2 6.8% 34.9% 34.9% 15.5 0.1 0.9 1.4 4.4
11-3 12.4% 27.5% 27.5% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.9 9.0
10-4 16.9% 21.4% 21.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.5 13.3
9-5 18.9% 15.1% 15.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8 16.0
8-6 16.5% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7 14.8
7-7 12.2% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 1.1 11.1
6-8 7.5% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.5 7.0
5-9 3.8% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.2 3.7
4-10 1.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-11 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 14.4 82.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.1 15.5 58.6 25.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%