Winthrop
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#181
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#169
Pace78.7#15
Improvement+0.5#152

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#179
First Shot-1.0#196
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#142
Layup/Dunks+3.9#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#349
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#306
Freethrows+2.8#48
Improvement+3.3#12

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#193
First Shot+0.3#164
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#276
Layups/Dunks+1.2#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#274
Freethrows-0.3#209
Improvement-2.8#344
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 21.6% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.8 14.5
.500 or above 80.6% 94.0% 78.8%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 86.3% 77.4%
Conference Champion 21.5% 29.9% 20.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.2% 2.9%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round15.9% 21.5% 15.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 12.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 8
Quad 414 - 417 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 244   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-67 74%     1 - 0 +7.4 -0.8 +6.5
  Nov 11, 2024 125   @ Virginia Tech L 52-58 27%     1 - 1 -0.8 -12.2 +10.9
  Nov 15, 2024 225   William & Mary W 86-85 70%     2 - 1 -5.3 -2.4 -3.0
  Nov 16, 2024 235   Georgia Southern L 87-89 71%     2 - 2 -8.9 -5.3 -3.1
  Nov 17, 2024 258   NC Central W 77-75 76%     3 - 2 -6.5 -0.5 -6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 50   @ Louisville L 61-76 10%     3 - 3 -1.8 -12.3 +12.1
  Nov 25, 2024 337   LIU Brooklyn W 87-65 88%     4 - 3 +8.2 +6.9 +0.7
  Dec 03, 2024 280   @ Queens W 86-78 58%     5 - 3 +4.8 +2.9 +1.3
  Dec 07, 2024 274   Coastal Carolina W 96-89 78%     6 - 3 -2.0 +18.6 -20.6
  Dec 17, 2024 65   @ Florida St. L 74-87 12%    
  Dec 21, 2024 229   Mercer W 83-77 70%    
  Dec 29, 2024 46   @ Indiana L 74-89 8%    
  Jan 02, 2025 334   South Carolina Upstate W 88-76 88%    
  Jan 04, 2025 202   @ Radford L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 08, 2025 240   @ Gardner-Webb W 80-79 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 220   Longwood W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 15, 2025 299   Charleston Southern W 82-73 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 182   @ UNC Asheville L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 134   @ High Point L 76-81 31%    
  Jan 29, 2025 250   Presbyterian W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 240   Gardner-Webb W 83-77 71%    
  Feb 05, 2025 299   @ Charleston Southern W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 85-79 72%    
  Feb 12, 2025 202   Radford W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 134   High Point W 79-78 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 250   @ Presbyterian W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 220   @ Longwood L 76-77 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 182   UNC Asheville W 80-77 60%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.8 6.5 5.7 3.3 1.2 0.2 21.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.5 7.6 3.8 0.9 0.1 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.6 7.1 2.5 0.3 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.5 6.5 1.9 0.1 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.7 1.6 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.3 1.5 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 1.2 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 6.1 9.5 12.7 14.7 15.2 13.9 10.6 6.6 3.4 1.2 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
14-2 98.4% 3.3    3.1 0.2
13-3 86.5% 5.7    4.4 1.3 0.0 0.0
12-4 61.7% 6.5    3.4 2.6 0.4 0.0
11-5 27.0% 3.8    1.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
10-6 4.7% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 21.5% 21.5 13.4 6.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 51.9% 51.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.2% 44.8% 44.8% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-2 3.4% 37.0% 37.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 2.1
13-3 6.6% 32.1% 32.1% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.5
12-4 10.6% 25.5% 25.5% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.0 7.9
11-5 13.9% 21.2% 21.2% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.1 11.0
10-6 15.2% 15.7% 15.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 12.8
9-7 14.7% 12.5% 12.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 12.9
8-8 12.7% 9.7% 9.7% 15.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 11.5
7-9 9.5% 7.1% 7.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 8.8
6-10 6.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.8
5-11 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 3.3
4-12 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-13 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-14 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 5.1 5.7 2.2 83.8 0.0%