Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
125 High Point 31.9%   14   5 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 7 11 - 5 +2.5      +5.0 53 -2.4 252 68.1 217 +8.1 70 0.0 1
177 UNC Asheville 15.7%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 12 9 - 7 -0.9      +1.2 140 -2.2 241 69.2 178 +2.3 155 0.0 1
179 Longwood 15.2%   4 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 9 9 - 7 -1.0      -2.9 261 +1.9 117 66.7 263 +5.3 104 0.0 1
193 Winthrop 13.1%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 7 -1.5      -1.6 212 +0.1 168 75.7 47 -1.7 213 0.0 1
222 Gardner-Webb 8.7%   2 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 8 -3.0      -1.7 220 -1.3 214 72.5 92 +1.6 168 0.0 1
227 Radford 8.7%   3 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 8 -3.2      +2.0 117 -5.2 336 62.3 344 +8.3 69 0.0 1
281 Presbyterian 3.7%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 10 -6.1      -0.2 179 -6.0 345 64.7 305 -3.7 239 0.0 1
312 Charleston Southern 1.5%   0 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 11 -8.4      -4.5 301 -3.9 299 69.8 164 -17.9 357 0.0 1
314 South Carolina Upstate 1.6%   0 - 4 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 11 -8.4      -3.4 270 -5.0 331 75.5 49 -9.5 305 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
High Point 2.3 45.3 22.0 13.1 8.5 5.4 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3
UNC Asheville 3.6 19.5 18.5 16.1 13.5 10.9 8.6 6.6 4.2 2.1
Longwood 3.6 19.0 18.6 16.2 14.1 11.2 8.8 6.3 3.9 1.9
Winthrop 3.8 15.5 17.5 16.3 14.5 12.8 9.8 7.1 4.5 2.2
Gardner-Webb 4.5 9.6 12.2 14.1 14.7 14.5 13.0 10.6 7.2 4.1
Radford 4.6 9.5 12.1 13.5 14.3 14.5 12.9 10.7 8.0 4.6
Presbyterian 6.0 3.3 5.4 7.7 10.1 12.4 15.0 16.8 16.1 13.4
Charleston Southern 6.9 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.1 8.7 12.7 17.1 22.7 25.5
South Carolina Upstate 6.9 1.1 2.4 4.0 6.1 8.8 12.7 16.7 21.8 26.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
High Point 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.5 6.1 9.2 12.7 15.2 15.9 14.6 11.3 6.3 1.9
UNC Asheville 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.5 6.9 9.2 11.9 13.3 13.8 12.7 10.1 7.0 4.1 1.7 0.4
Longwood 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 4.3 6.9 9.4 11.9 14.0 14.0 12.8 10.0 7.0 3.8 1.5 0.4
Winthrop 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.9 7.8 10.6 12.9 14.1 14.0 12.1 9.1 5.8 2.8 0.9 0.2
Gardner-Webb 8 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.6 7.8 10.9 13.3 13.9 13.7 11.7 8.9 5.7 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1
Radford 8 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.9 5.2 8.0 10.9 12.9 14.2 13.3 11.4 8.6 5.7 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1
Presbyterian 6 - 10 0.4 1.8 4.4 7.9 11.2 13.3 14.4 13.5 11.3 8.7 6.0 3.6 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Charleston Southern 5 - 11 1.3 4.4 9.1 12.9 15.4 15.5 13.7 10.7 7.4 4.7 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 5 - 11 1.4 4.7 9.2 13.1 15.0 14.9 13.6 10.6 7.6 4.7 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
High Point 45.3% 33.3 9.6 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
UNC Asheville 19.5% 12.4 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.1
Longwood 19.0% 11.9 5.4 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Winthrop 15.5% 9.1 4.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Gardner-Webb 9.6% 5.5 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Radford 9.5% 5.5 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Presbyterian 3.3% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Charleston Southern 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
South Carolina Upstate 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
High Point 31.9% 31.9% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 7.1 10.9 8.3 3.6 0.7 68.1 0.0%
UNC Asheville 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.5 3.9 2.3 84.3 0.0%
Longwood 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.6 4.7 4.0 1.6 84.8 0.0%
Winthrop 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.8 4.1 2.6 86.9 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.8 2.4 91.3 0.0%
Radford 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.4 2.8 1.7 91.3 0.0%
Presbyterian 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 96.3 0.0%
Charleston Southern 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 98.5 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 98.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
High Point 31.9% 0.2% 31.9% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 15.7% 1.2% 15.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 15.2% 0.5% 15.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 13.1% 1.2% 12.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 8.7% 1.4% 8.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 8.7% 0.9% 8.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 3.7% 1.4% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 95.8% 1.0 4.2 95.8 0.0
2nd Round 7.8% 0.1 92.2 7.8
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0