UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#177
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#155
Pace69.2#178
Improvement+5.4#1

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#140
First Shot-3.6#278
After Offensive Rebound+4.8#15
Layup/Dunks-4.7#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
Freethrows-1.4#254
Improvement+2.9#1

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#241
First Shot-5.4#325
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#28
Layups/Dunks-0.3#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#226
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#288
Freethrows-1.8#275
Improvement+2.5#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 16.9% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 66.6% 72.2% 47.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 77.8% 65.0%
Conference Champion 19.5% 21.4% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 3.3% 6.5%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 1.7%
First Round15.1% 16.5% 10.5%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Neutral) - 77.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 411 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 9   @ Alabama L 54-110 4%     0 - 1 -35.9 -14.7 -18.1
  Nov 09, 2024 156   @ Ohio L 76-82 35%     0 - 2 -2.9 -1.3 -1.4
  Nov 18, 2024 175   @ North Florida W 89-75 38%     1 - 2 +16.1 +16.8 -0.1
  Nov 22, 2024 322   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-72 78%    
  Nov 24, 2024 340   @ Central Arkansas W 79-71 76%    
  Dec 01, 2024 297   @ Tennessee St. W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 03, 2024 96   @ George Mason L 67-76 19%    
  Dec 14, 2024 258   Western Carolina W 74-67 74%    
  Dec 17, 2024 175   North Florida W 80-77 61%    
  Dec 21, 2024 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 125   High Point L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 08, 2025 179   @ Longwood L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 281   @ Presbyterian W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 15, 2025 314   South Carolina Upstate W 83-73 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 193   Winthrop W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 22, 2025 222   @ Gardner-Webb L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 312   @ Charleston Southern W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 29, 2025 227   Radford W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 05, 2025 222   Gardner-Webb W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 125   @ High Point L 74-80 28%    
  Feb 12, 2025 314   @ South Carolina Upstate W 80-76 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 312   Charleston Southern W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 19, 2025 227   @ Radford L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 179   Longwood W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 281   Presbyterian W 78-70 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 193   @ Winthrop L 75-77 42%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.1 5.6 3.8 1.7 0.4 19.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.4 7.1 4.6 1.4 0.2 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.9 6.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.6 6.0 2.0 0.2 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.1 1.5 0.1 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.0 1.3 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.0 0.9 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.5 6.9 9.2 11.9 13.3 13.8 12.7 10.1 7.0 4.1 1.7 0.4 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
14-2 94.7% 3.8    3.4 0.4
13-3 79.8% 5.6    3.9 1.6 0.1
12-4 50.4% 5.1    2.4 2.2 0.5 0.0
11-5 18.6% 2.4    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.5% 19.5 12.4 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 54.7% 53.5% 1.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2.5%
15-1 1.7% 46.4% 46.4% 12.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
14-2 4.1% 42.0% 42.0% 13.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.4
13-3 7.0% 33.4% 33.4% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.6
12-4 10.1% 27.3% 27.3% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 7.3
11-5 12.7% 19.3% 19.3% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.1 10.2
10-6 13.8% 14.9% 14.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.3 11.8
9-7 13.3% 11.1% 11.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 11.8
8-8 11.9% 7.4% 7.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 11.0
7-9 9.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.7
6-10 6.9% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.6
5-11 4.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 4.4
4-12 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-13 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-14 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.5 3.9 2.3 84.3 0.0%