UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#184
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#141
Pace69.2#144
Improvement+0.2#178

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#116
First Shot-0.4#188
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#51
Layup/Dunks-0.9#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#263
Freethrows-0.8#238
Improvement-0.8#222

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#260
First Shot-1.3#216
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#315
Layups/Dunks-1.4#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#71
Freethrows-1.6#287
Improvement+1.0#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 13.2% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 6.1% 9.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round12.5% 13.1% 11.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Longwood (Home) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 8
Quad 414 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 6   @ Alabama L 54-110 3%     0 - 1 -34.0 -14.9 -16.0
  Nov 09, 2024 172   @ Ohio L 76-82 37%     0 - 2 -4.0 +0.5 -4.2
  Nov 18, 2024 266   @ North Florida W 89-75 57%     1 - 2 +11.0 +14.0 -2.5
  Nov 22, 2024 217   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-64 57%     2 - 2 +4.9 +0.2 +4.8
  Nov 24, 2024 344   @ Central Arkansas L 83-92 2OT 79%     2 - 3 -18.7 -6.6 -10.7
  Dec 01, 2024 269   @ Tennessee St. W 92-74 57%     3 - 3 +14.9 +14.7 -0.5
  Dec 03, 2024 75   @ George Mason L 52-74 14%     3 - 4 -11.9 -7.5 -5.8
  Dec 14, 2024 333   Western Carolina W 78-61 87%     4 - 4 +3.7 -2.3 +5.6
  Dec 17, 2024 266   North Florida W 95-81 74%     5 - 4 +5.9 +9.4 -4.2
  Dec 21, 2024 116   @ UNC Wilmington L 74-85 26%     5 - 5 -5.6 +9.0 -15.6
  Jan 04, 2025 96   High Point W 103-99 36%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +6.5 +16.6 -10.5
  Jan 08, 2025 200   @ Longwood L 76-85 44%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -8.6 +2.8 -11.5
  Jan 11, 2025 270   @ Presbyterian W 96-87 57%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +5.8 +23.1 -17.1
  Jan 15, 2025 345   South Carolina Upstate W 93-92 89%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -13.9 +1.6 -15.6
  Jan 18, 2025 196   Winthrop W 93-84 63%     9 - 6 4 - 1 +4.4 +10.6 -6.8
  Jan 22, 2025 257   @ Gardner-Webb W 61-53 56%     10 - 6 5 - 1 +5.3 -9.3 +15.2
  Jan 25, 2025 285   @ Charleston Southern W 69-61 62%     11 - 6 6 - 1 +3.6 -6.6 +10.0
  Jan 29, 2025 177   Radford W 72-65 58%     12 - 6 7 - 1 +3.5 +5.5 -1.0
  Feb 06, 2025 257   Gardner-Webb W 78-70 73%     13 - 6 8 - 1 +0.2 +2.8 -2.3
  Feb 08, 2025 96   @ High Point L 100-104 OT 20%     13 - 7 8 - 2 +3.6 +8.2 -3.9
  Feb 12, 2025 345   @ South Carolina Upstate W 92-85 79%     14 - 7 9 - 2 -2.8 +5.1 -8.5
  Feb 15, 2025 285   Charleston Southern W 75-72 78%     15 - 7 10 - 2 -6.5 +1.3 -7.7
  Feb 20, 2025 177   @ Radford L 53-77 39%     15 - 8 10 - 3 -22.4 -13.4 -12.3
  Feb 22, 2025 200   Longwood W 79-76 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 270   Presbyterian W 77-70 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 196   @ Winthrop L 82-84 42%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 5.8 6.1 1st
2nd 3.2 28.5 44.3 15.7 91.6 2nd
3rd 2.3 2.3 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 5.5 28.5 44.6 21.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 27.1% 5.8    0.2 5.6
12-4 0.6% 0.3    0.3
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total 6.1% 6.1 0.2 5.9



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 21.5% 15.5% 15.5% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.7 0.0 18.2
12-4 44.6% 12.7% 12.7% 14.8 0.1 1.5 3.7 0.4 39.0
11-5 28.5% 11.3% 11.3% 15.1 0.4 2.0 0.8 25.2
10-6 5.5% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.1
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.7 3.8 6.6 1.5 87.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 100.0% 14.0 0.9 19.9 56.6 22.3 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.2%
Lose Out 2.2%