North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#266
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#213
Pace77.9#12
Improvement-6.3#357

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#131
First Shot+1.3#127
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#188
Layup/Dunks-0.4#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#9
Freethrows-3.1#345
Improvement-5.8#361

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#349
First Shot-5.9#342
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#276
Layups/Dunks-7.9#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#80
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#136
Freethrows-0.4#217
Improvement-0.5#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.6% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 18.2% 55.6% 6.5%
.500 or above in Conference 59.4% 100.0% 46.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round1.1% 1.6% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Away) - 24.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 22 - 5
Quad 34 - 56 - 10
Quad 48 - 714 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 84   @ South Carolina W 74-71 9%     1 - 0 +12.3 +8.3 +4.0
  Nov 07, 2024 285   Charleston Southern W 90-66 65%     2 - 0 +14.5 +6.8 +6.0
  Nov 10, 2024 99   @ Georgia Tech W 105-93 12%     3 - 0 +19.4 +22.2 -4.5
  Nov 12, 2024 44   @ Georgia L 77-90 4%     3 - 1 +1.2 +14.1 -13.2
  Nov 18, 2024 184   UNC Asheville L 75-89 43%     3 - 2 -17.8 +0.7 -19.0
  Nov 29, 2024 234   @ SIU Edwardsville W 78-73 34%     4 - 2 +3.6 +4.9 -1.4
  Dec 01, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 72-103 5%     4 - 3 -17.4 -0.6 -13.9
  Dec 07, 2024 248   @ Georgia Southern L 91-93 OT 38%     4 - 4 -4.3 +2.2 -6.2
  Dec 14, 2024 154   UNC Greensboro W 89-77 36%     5 - 4 +10.0 +14.2 -4.4
  Dec 17, 2024 184   @ UNC Asheville L 81-95 26%     5 - 5 -12.7 +2.4 -14.5
  Dec 21, 2024 4   @ Florida L 45-99 1%     5 - 6 -29.2 -19.5 -6.7
  Jan 02, 2025 276   Austin Peay L 89-97 63%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -17.0 +7.5 -24.0
  Jan 04, 2025 101   Lipscomb L 64-96 24%     5 - 8 0 - 2 -30.1 -12.6 -15.1
  Jan 09, 2025 191   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-79 27%     5 - 9 0 - 3 -4.3 -2.7 -1.4
  Jan 11, 2025 340   @ Bellarmine W 98-83 63%     6 - 9 1 - 3 +5.9 +21.2 -14.5
  Jan 16, 2025 344   Central Arkansas W 92-80 81%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -2.8 +12.1 -14.9
  Jan 18, 2025 134   North Alabama L 84-90 34%     7 - 10 2 - 4 -7.2 +9.3 -16.5
  Jan 23, 2025 231   @ Queens W 90-81 34%     8 - 10 3 - 4 +7.7 +8.4 -1.3
  Jan 25, 2025 348   @ West Georgia L 72-92 67%     8 - 11 3 - 5 -30.2 -9.7 -19.4
  Jan 29, 2025 349   Stetson W 101-100 OT 82%     9 - 11 4 - 5 -14.4 -1.1 -13.6
  Feb 01, 2025 193   @ Jacksonville W 81-78 27%     10 - 11 5 - 5 +3.7 +5.3 -1.9
  Feb 06, 2025 340   Bellarmine W 95-88 79%     11 - 11 6 - 5 -7.2 +3.0 -10.7
  Feb 08, 2025 180   Florida Gulf Coast L 70-84 43%     11 - 12 6 - 6 -17.6 -6.8 -10.7
  Feb 13, 2025 134   @ North Alabama L 70-83 19%     11 - 13 6 - 7 -9.1 -1.0 -8.4
  Feb 15, 2025 344   @ Central Arkansas L 83-84 OT 66%     11 - 14 6 - 8 -10.7 +0.4 -11.0
  Feb 18, 2025 349   @ Stetson W 79-71 68%     12 - 14 7 - 8 -2.3 -3.2 +0.6
  Feb 20, 2025 193   Jacksonville W 77-73 46%     13 - 14 8 - 8 -0.4 +1.0 -1.6
  Feb 24, 2025 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 76-83 24%    
  Feb 26, 2025 191   Eastern Kentucky L 85-86 47%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 2.7 2.7 6th
7th 12.1 40.6 9.0 61.7 7th
8th 28.5 7.0 35.5 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 40.6 47.6 11.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 11.8% 2.0% 2.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.6
9-9 47.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.3 0.4 46.9
8-10 40.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 40.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.7 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.9 16.7 79.2 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%
Lose Out 19.9%