North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#245
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#220
Pace76.0#28
Improvement-6.9#360

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#99
First Shot+2.9#93
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#170
Layup/Dunks+0.1#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#5
Freethrows-2.9#340
Improvement-1.6#275

Defense
Total Defense-7.8#355
First Shot-6.6#350
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#283
Layups/Dunks-8.4#362
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#79
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#145
Freethrows-0.6#227
Improvement-5.3#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.8% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 29.6% 47.9% 21.4%
.500 or above in Conference 45.7% 66.6% 36.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round1.9% 2.6% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Away) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 12 - 5
Quad 33 - 65 - 11
Quad 49 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 82   @ South Carolina W 74-71 10%     1 - 0 +12.6 +8.5 +4.1
  Nov 07, 2024 279   Charleston Southern W 90-66 68%     2 - 0 +14.6 +6.8 +6.0
  Nov 10, 2024 104   @ Georgia Tech W 105-93 15%     3 - 0 +18.5 +21.3 -4.5
  Nov 12, 2024 34   @ Georgia L 77-90 4%     3 - 1 +2.5 +16.0 -13.7
  Nov 18, 2024 187   UNC Asheville L 75-89 47%     3 - 2 -17.9 -1.7 -16.8
  Nov 29, 2024 263   @ SIU Edwardsville W 78-73 44%     4 - 2 +2.0 +3.9 -2.1
  Dec 01, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 72-103 6%     4 - 3 -17.7 -0.3 -14.6
  Dec 07, 2024 272   @ Georgia Southern L 91-93 OT 46%     4 - 4 -5.5 +2.0 -7.2
  Dec 14, 2024 129   UNC Greensboro W 89-77 35%     5 - 4 +11.3 +13.8 -2.7
  Dec 17, 2024 187   @ UNC Asheville L 81-95 28%     5 - 5 -12.4 +0.2 -12.0
  Dec 21, 2024 5   @ Florida L 45-99 1%     5 - 6 -30.8 -20.5 -7.3
  Jan 02, 2025 298   Austin Peay L 89-97 71%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -18.4 +8.6 -26.6
  Jan 04, 2025 91   Lipscomb L 64-96 22%     5 - 8 0 - 2 -28.6 -12.1 -14.1
  Jan 09, 2025 248   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-79 40%     5 - 9 0 - 3 -7.1 -3.8 -3.1
  Jan 11, 2025 353   @ Bellarmine W 98-83 72%     6 - 9 1 - 3 +4.3 +21.2 -16.2
  Jan 16, 2025 339   Central Arkansas W 92-80 82%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -2.2 +12.9 -15.2
  Jan 18, 2025 163   North Alabama L 84-90 42%     7 - 10 2 - 4 -8.6 +9.0 -17.6
  Jan 23, 2025 210   @ Queens L 84-89 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 84-79 68%    
  Jan 29, 2025 348   Stetson W 90-80 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 185   @ Jacksonville L 75-81 26%    
  Feb 06, 2025 353   Bellarmine W 88-76 86%    
  Feb 08, 2025 168   Florida Gulf Coast L 77-79 45%    
  Feb 13, 2025 163   @ North Alabama L 79-87 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 339   @ Central Arkansas W 82-78 64%    
  Feb 18, 2025 348   @ Stetson W 87-82 66%    
  Feb 20, 2025 185   Jacksonville L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 24, 2025 168   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 74-81 25%    
  Feb 26, 2025 248   Eastern Kentucky W 87-84 63%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.0 1.1 0.1 4.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.7 3.7 0.3 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.4 11.2 8.0 1.1 0.0 26.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 7.1 11.9 6.6 1.2 0.0 28.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.7 7.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 16.5 8th
9th 0.3 2.1 4.0 1.2 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 2.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.2 10.6 16.7 21.0 19.9 14.7 7.4 2.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 4.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.7% 8.2% 8.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 2.9% 5.8% 5.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
11-7 7.4% 3.9% 3.9% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.1
10-8 14.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 14.1
9-9 19.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.2 0.3 19.5
8-10 21.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.4 20.6
7-11 16.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 16.4
6-12 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.5
5-13 4.2% 4.2
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 97.8 0.0%