Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#191
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#187
Pace70.3#126
Improvement+3.1#60

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#121
First Shot-3.0#268
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#7
Layup/Dunks-7.6#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#9
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#130
Freethrows-2.1#301
Improvement+1.0#133

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#274
First Shot-1.0#212
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#336
Layups/Dunks-1.3#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#124
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement+2.1#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 9.6% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 1.8% 4.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round7.4% 9.6% 6.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Away) - 39.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 22 - 22 - 5
Quad 34 - 46 - 9
Quad 411 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 148   @ East Tennessee St. W 82-78 31%     1 - 0 +7.3 +15.8 -8.3
  Nov 12, 2024 23   @ Clemson L 62-75 4%     1 - 1 +5.1 +2.9 +1.2
  Nov 19, 2024 360   @ Chicago St. W 86-66 85%     2 - 1 +6.8 +2.8 +2.5
  Nov 25, 2024 261   Ball St. L 61-63 64%     2 - 2 -7.5 -13.3 +5.8
  Nov 26, 2024 179   Southern Illinois W 77-72 47%     3 - 2 +4.0 +2.7 +1.2
  Nov 27, 2024 123   Louisiana Tech L 69-78 35%     3 - 3 -6.9 +3.8 -11.6
  Dec 01, 2024 118   @ Troy L 74-84 25%     3 - 4 -4.7 +6.5 -11.4
  Dec 11, 2024 52   @ Pittsburgh L 56-96 9%     3 - 5 -26.8 -12.1 -14.7
  Dec 14, 2024 338   Eastern Illinois W 81-66 87%     4 - 5 +1.0 +2.4 -2.0
  Dec 21, 2024 124   Jacksonville St. L 80-91 45%     4 - 6 -11.5 +8.0 -19.6
  Dec 28, 2024 21   @ Louisville L 76-78 4%     4 - 7 +16.3 +12.3 +4.1
  Jan 02, 2025 344   @ Central Arkansas W 89-83 2OT 77%     5 - 7 1 - 0 -3.7 -3.8 -0.9
  Jan 04, 2025 134   @ North Alabama L 67-88 29%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -17.1 -5.3 -11.9
  Jan 09, 2025 266   North Florida W 79-74 73%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -3.1 -3.9 +0.7
  Jan 11, 2025 193   Jacksonville L 75-82 60%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -11.4 +0.9 -12.2
  Jan 16, 2025 276   @ Austin Peay L 90-97 OT 58%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -10.9 +3.8 -13.8
  Jan 18, 2025 340   Bellarmine W 72-69 87%     7 - 10 3 - 3 -11.2 -4.9 -6.0
  Jan 23, 2025 349   Stetson L 66-67 89%     7 - 11 3 - 4 -16.4 -9.8 -6.7
  Jan 25, 2025 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 81-77 57%     8 - 11 4 - 4 +0.4 +6.8 -6.3
  Jan 30, 2025 101   @ Lipscomb W 80-71 20%     9 - 11 5 - 4 +16.0 +11.6 +4.5
  Feb 01, 2025 276   Austin Peay W 88-82 75%     10 - 11 6 - 4 -3.0 +20.2 -22.6
  Feb 06, 2025 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 92-74 37%     11 - 11 7 - 4 +19.5 +19.7 +0.0
  Feb 08, 2025 349   @ Stetson W 83-58 79%     12 - 11 8 - 4 +14.7 +8.5 +7.9
  Feb 13, 2025 348   West Georgia W 95-73 89%     13 - 11 9 - 4 +6.7 +12.5 -6.3
  Feb 15, 2025 231   Queens W 86-80 OT 67%     14 - 11 10 - 4 -0.4 +6.2 -6.7
  Feb 18, 2025 101   Lipscomb W 66-57 36%     15 - 11 11 - 4 +10.9 -3.0 +14.2
  Feb 20, 2025 340   @ Bellarmine L 74-80 76%     15 - 12 11 - 5 -15.1 -5.0 -10.3
  Feb 24, 2025 193   @ Jacksonville L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 266   @ North Florida W 86-85 53%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.8 1.8 1st
2nd 0.6 9.1 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 15.9 11.0 27.0 3rd
4th 3.0 31.5 34.6 4th
5th 22.8 22.8 5th
6th 4.1 4.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 30.0 48.0 22.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 8.4% 1.8    0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 22.0% 11.1% 11.1% 14.2 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.0 19.5
12-6 48.0% 6.9% 6.9% 14.8 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.3 44.7
11-7 30.0% 5.6% 5.6% 15.1 0.1 1.2 0.3 28.3
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 14.7 0.3 2.4 4.1 0.7 92.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 14.2 12.8 54.3 32.5 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.2%
Lose Out 17.3%