Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#46
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#123
Pace73.2#77
Improvement-0.3#218

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#44
First Shot+8.0#20
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#305
Layup/Dunks-0.5#202
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#25
Freethrows+1.6#100
Improvement+0.6#101

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#65
First Shot+5.9#34
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#277
Layups/Dunks+6.3#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#289
Freethrows+3.5#36
Improvement-0.9#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 4.9% 5.2% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 11.3% 12.0% 3.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.3% 42.1% 21.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.0% 39.8% 19.5%
Average Seed 7.9 7.8 8.6
.500 or above 70.9% 73.4% 45.4%
.500 or above in Conference 62.2% 63.8% 45.9%
Conference Champion 4.1% 4.4% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.9% 6.8%
First Four5.6% 5.8% 4.0%
First Round37.4% 39.1% 18.9%
Second Round21.2% 22.3% 9.1%
Sweet Sixteen7.7% 8.1% 3.0%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.2% 1.1%
Final Four1.2% 1.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 91.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 8
Quad 26 - 49 - 12
Quad 34 - 113 - 13
Quad 44 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 279   Morehead St. W 93-45 95%     1 - 0 +38.9 +12.1 +23.9
  Nov 09, 2024 8   Tennessee L 55-77 33%     1 - 1 -7.6 -7.5 -0.9
  Nov 19, 2024 335   Bellarmine W 100-68 98%     2 - 1 +18.4 +14.5 +2.3
  Nov 22, 2024 193   Winthrop W 84-70 91%    
  Nov 27, 2024 22   Indiana L 74-78 36%    
  Dec 03, 2024 47   Mississippi W 76-73 62%    
  Dec 08, 2024 5   Duke L 72-78 28%    
  Dec 11, 2024 203   UTEP W 82-67 91%    
  Dec 14, 2024 10   @ Kentucky L 77-87 18%    
  Dec 21, 2024 79   @ Florida St. L 76-77 49%    
  Dec 28, 2024 199   Eastern Kentucky W 85-70 91%    
  Jan 01, 2025 7   North Carolina L 80-85 34%    
  Jan 04, 2025 58   @ Virginia L 63-65 43%    
  Jan 07, 2025 49   Clemson W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 25   @ Pittsburgh L 72-79 28%    
  Jan 14, 2025 92   @ Syracuse W 81-80 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 58   Virginia W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 21, 2025 68   @ SMU L 80-81 46%    
  Jan 30, 2025 73   Wake Forest W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 106   @ Georgia Tech W 82-79 59%    
  Feb 05, 2025 133   @ Boston College W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 10, 2025 37   Miami (FL) W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 12, 2025 52   @ North Carolina St. L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 16, 2025 56   @ Notre Dame L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 79   Florida St. W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 25, 2025 95   @ Virginia Tech W 74-73 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 25   Pittsburgh L 75-76 48%    
  Mar 05, 2025 104   California W 80-72 76%    
  Mar 08, 2025 67   Stanford W 77-72 66%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 3.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.4 2.9 3.5 0.9 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.9 1.4 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 3.6 0.8 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.5 1.6 0.1 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 3.0 1.1 0.1 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 4.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.2 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 3.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.5 5.0 6.7 8.8 10.3 11.3 11.3 10.7 9.2 7.5 5.5 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 83.7% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
17-3 62.7% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 29.8% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 10.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.0% 99.9% 15.8% 84.1% 3.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 3.5% 99.6% 16.1% 83.5% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 5.5% 97.6% 12.3% 85.2% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.2%
14-6 7.5% 92.2% 8.2% 84.0% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.6 91.5%
13-7 9.2% 81.3% 5.2% 76.1% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.0 1.7 80.2%
12-8 10.7% 62.7% 3.1% 59.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.9 1.6 0.1 4.0 61.5%
11-9 11.3% 38.6% 1.2% 37.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.2 7.0 37.8%
10-10 11.3% 19.0% 0.9% 18.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.2 9.2 18.2%
9-11 10.3% 4.8% 0.3% 4.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 9.8 4.5%
8-12 8.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.8%
7-13 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0%
6-14 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 5.0
5-15 3.5% 3.5
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 40.3% 3.6% 36.7% 7.9 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.9 5.3 6.2 6.2 5.8 0.7 0.0 59.7 38.0%