Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#21
Expected Predictive Rating+15.9#23
Pace71.5#88
Improvement+2.8#72

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#19
First Shot+7.6#21
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#116
Layup/Dunks+1.1#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#30
Freethrows+2.9#38
Improvement+1.9#95

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#31
First Shot+5.4#36
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#59
Layups/Dunks+0.8#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#179
Freethrows+4.2#3
Improvement+1.0#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 15.7% 17.6% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 49.9% 53.8% 24.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.1% 98.3% 96.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.8% 98.1% 96.3%
Average Seed 6.3 6.2 7.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 15.4% 17.5% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round98.1% 98.3% 96.5%
Second Round68.8% 70.0% 60.8%
Sweet Sixteen29.1% 30.4% 20.0%
Elite Eight12.2% 12.7% 8.3%
Final Four4.9% 5.1% 3.1%
Championship Game1.7% 1.8% 1.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Florida St. (Home) - 87.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 14 - 4
Quad 28 - 312 - 7
Quad 38 - 020 - 8
Quad 46 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 329   Morehead St. W 93-45 99%     1 - 0 +35.1 +8.9 +23.3
  Nov 09, 2024 5   Tennessee L 55-77 44%     1 - 1 -4.6 -4.1 -1.5
  Nov 19, 2024 340   Bellarmine W 100-68 99%     2 - 1 +17.8 +11.0 +5.2
  Nov 22, 2024 196   Winthrop W 76-61 96%     3 - 1 +10.4 -8.7 +17.5
  Nov 27, 2024 57   Indiana W 89-61 69%     4 - 1 +38.6 +18.9 +18.8
  Nov 28, 2024 41   West Virginia W 79-70 OT 64%     5 - 1 +21.1 +12.1 +8.6
  Nov 29, 2024 50   Oklahoma L 64-69 68%     5 - 2 +5.9 +3.1 +2.2
  Dec 03, 2024 25   Mississippi L 63-86 63%     5 - 3 -10.7 -0.5 -11.2
  Dec 08, 2024 2   Duke L 65-76 31%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +10.0 +3.9 +5.7
  Dec 11, 2024 139   UTEP W 77-74 94%     6 - 4 +1.6 +4.9 -3.2
  Dec 14, 2024 17   @ Kentucky L 85-93 36%     6 - 5 +11.5 +14.0 -2.2
  Dec 21, 2024 82   @ Florida St. W 90-76 73%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +23.4 +27.1 -3.2
  Dec 28, 2024 191   Eastern Kentucky W 78-76 96%     8 - 5 -2.4 +1.3 -3.7
  Jan 01, 2025 40   North Carolina W 83-70 73%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +22.6 +8.1 +13.6
  Jan 04, 2025 93   @ Virginia W 70-50 78%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +27.7 +12.5 +18.7
  Jan 07, 2025 23   Clemson W 74-64 61%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +23.0 +11.8 +11.8
  Jan 11, 2025 52   @ Pittsburgh W 82-78 60%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +17.2 +14.9 +2.4
  Jan 14, 2025 108   @ Syracuse W 85-61 82%     13 - 5 6 - 1 +30.0 +15.4 +14.9
  Jan 18, 2025 93   Virginia W 81-67 89%     14 - 5 7 - 1 +16.7 +9.0 +7.7
  Jan 21, 2025 37   @ SMU W 98-73 53%     15 - 5 8 - 1 +40.1 +35.0 +6.2
  Jan 28, 2025 55   Wake Forest W 72-59 77%     16 - 5 9 - 1 +21.0 +9.6 +12.2
  Feb 01, 2025 99   @ Georgia Tech L 70-77 79%     16 - 6 9 - 2 +0.4 +0.7 -0.1
  Feb 05, 2025 174   @ Boston College W 84-58 90%     17 - 6 10 - 2 +27.9 +10.3 +17.0
  Feb 08, 2025 152   Miami (FL) W 88-78 94%     18 - 6 11 - 2 +8.1 +8.6 -0.7
  Feb 12, 2025 103   @ North Carolina St. W 91-66 80%     19 - 6 12 - 2 +31.8 +24.0 +8.3
  Feb 16, 2025 95   @ Notre Dame W 75-60 78%     20 - 6 13 - 2 +22.7 +10.6 +13.2
  Feb 22, 2025 82   Florida St. W 81-70 87%    
  Feb 25, 2025 128   @ Virginia Tech W 78-67 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 52   Pittsburgh W 79-71 77%    
  Mar 05, 2025 112   California W 85-70 93%    
  Mar 08, 2025 88   Stanford W 82-70 88%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 14.3 15.4 1st
2nd 0.1 3.2 25.5 33.6 62.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 9.3 10.2 21.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 2.6 12.5 36.8 47.9 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 29.9% 14.3    1.1 9.4 3.8
17-3 2.8% 1.0    0.0 0.4 0.6
16-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 15.4% 15.4 1.2 9.9 4.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 47.9% 99.2% 13.8% 85.3% 5.4 0.4 1.9 4.2 7.4 10.2 11.1 8.3 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.4 99.1%
17-3 36.8% 98.3% 12.4% 85.9% 6.9 0.4 1.3 3.8 7.4 10.3 8.3 3.9 0.7 0.0 0.6 98.0%
16-4 12.5% 95.4% 9.5% 85.8% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.6 3.8 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.6 94.9%
15-5 2.6% 90.8% 6.1% 84.7% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 90.2%
14-6 0.2% 79.2% 12.5% 66.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 76.2%
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.1% 12.6% 85.5% 6.3 0.4 1.9 4.6 8.8 14.4 19.9 21.6 15.8 8.5 2.1 0.2 1.9 97.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.6% 100.0% 3.0 5.6 25.5 37.3 24.3 6.2 1.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.6% 99.9% 5.0 0.1 1.4 8.6 24.3 31.0 23.8 9.0 1.3 0.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 16.2% 99.2% 5.9 0.1 2.4 11.1 23.6 29.8 23.2 7.4 1.4 0.1