Preseason Rankings
Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#20
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#113
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.3% 4.4% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 10.3% 10.4% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 23.9% 24.1% 4.1%
Top 6 Seed 37.2% 37.5% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.6% 66.0% 32.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.5% 62.9% 31.6%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 7.7
.500 or above 85.8% 86.1% 54.6%
.500 or above in Conference 67.1% 67.4% 40.2%
Conference Champion 11.0% 11.1% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 3.3% 12.0%
First Four4.1% 4.1% 3.8%
First Round63.6% 64.0% 30.8%
Second Round44.4% 44.7% 15.7%
Sweet Sixteen22.6% 22.8% 4.7%
Elite Eight11.0% 11.1% 1.6%
Final Four5.0% 5.1% 0.6%
Championship Game2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 25 - 211 - 10
Quad 34 - 115 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 316   SIU Edwardsville W 83-59 99%    
  Nov 10, 2024 326   Eastern Illinois W 83-58 99%    
  Nov 16, 2024 64   South Carolina W 71-64 74%    
  Nov 21, 2024 188   UNC Greensboro W 78-61 93%    
  Nov 27, 2024 50   Louisville W 78-75 61%    
  Dec 03, 2024 119   Sam Houston St. W 78-65 87%    
  Dec 06, 2024 233   Miami (OH) W 81-62 95%    
  Dec 09, 2024 76   Minnesota W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 13, 2024 51   @ Nebraska W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 21, 2024 147   Chattanooga W 81-66 90%    
  Dec 29, 2024 189   Winthrop W 82-65 92%    
  Jan 02, 2025 29   Rutgers W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 05, 2025 67   @ Penn St. W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 08, 2025 46   USC W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 45   @ Iowa L 80-81 48%    
  Jan 14, 2025 22   Illinois W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 17, 2025 31   @ Ohio St. L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 22, 2025 60   @ Northwestern W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 26, 2025 38   Maryland W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 31, 2025 12   @ Purdue L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 04, 2025 44   @ Wisconsin L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 30   Michigan W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 24   @ Michigan St. L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 14, 2025 23   UCLA W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 23, 2025 12   Purdue W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 26, 2025 67   Penn St. W 78-71 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 62   @ Washington W 78-77 53%    
  Mar 04, 2025 34   @ Oregon L 72-73 45%    
  Mar 08, 2025 31   Ohio St. W 74-70 63%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.1 2.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 3.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.2 0.8 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.3 0.1 4.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.2 13th
14th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.2 3.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.2 5.8 7.4 8.9 9.8 10.2 10.2 9.6 8.4 6.8 5.5 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.4% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 96.1% 1.9    1.7 0.2 0.0
17-3 79.8% 2.7    1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 55.8% 3.1    1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 24.0% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.7 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 53.8% 46.2% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 47.7% 52.3% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.4% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 2.0 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.5% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 2.7 0.9 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.8% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.6 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.4% 99.5% 14.6% 84.9% 4.7 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 9.6% 98.6% 8.7% 89.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.5%
12-8 10.2% 94.8% 5.5% 89.3% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.5 94.5%
11-9 10.2% 84.6% 3.3% 81.3% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.0 1.6 84.1%
10-10 9.8% 66.8% 2.3% 64.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.2 3.3 66.0%
9-11 8.9% 36.6% 0.9% 35.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.6 36.0%
8-12 7.4% 10.8% 0.4% 10.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.6 10.4%
7-13 5.8% 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 1.2%
6-14 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 10.0 0.0 4.2
5-15 3.2% 3.2
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 65.6% 8.4% 57.3% 5.9 4.3 6.0 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.8 6.4 5.6 4.8 4.2 0.7 0.0 34.4 62.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.5 14.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 74.4 25.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 72.3 27.7