Indiana
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#44
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#42
Pace70.2#120
Improvement+2.5#81

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#55
First Shot+1.9#117
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#16
Layup/Dunks+6.2#18
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#342
Freethrows+1.4#93
Improvement+0.9#136

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#44
First Shot+4.1#64
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#42
Layups/Dunks+0.1#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#140
Freethrows+2.5#37
Improvement+1.6#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.5% 85.4% 53.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.1% 85.2% 53.4%
Average Seed 9.7 9.3 10.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.0% 100.0% 53.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.8% 6.3% 17.7%
First Round57.8% 82.3% 45.2%
Second Round22.5% 34.6% 16.3%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 7.3% 3.8%
Elite Eight1.7% 2.8% 1.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 65 - 12
Quad 25 - 110 - 13
Quad 36 - 015 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 246   SIU Edwardsville W 80-61 95%     1 - 0 +11.4 +2.2 +8.6
  Nov 10, 2024 323   Eastern Illinois W 90-55 98%     2 - 0 +22.6 +12.9 +8.8
  Nov 16, 2024 70   South Carolina W 87-71 73%     3 - 0 +21.3 +16.3 +4.5
  Nov 21, 2024 144   UNC Greensboro W 69-58 89%     4 - 0 +9.2 -2.6 +12.2
  Nov 27, 2024 23   Louisville L 61-89 36%     4 - 1 -12.5 -6.3 -5.4
  Nov 28, 2024 9   Gonzaga L 73-89 25%     4 - 2 +2.8 +2.3 +1.4
  Nov 29, 2024 86   Providence W 89-73 70%     5 - 2 +22.4 +23.2 +0.1
  Dec 03, 2024 176   Sam Houston St. W 97-71 92%     6 - 2 +22.5 +11.8 +8.2
  Dec 06, 2024 166   Miami (OH) W 76-57 91%     7 - 2 +16.0 +4.6 +12.2
  Dec 09, 2024 83   Minnesota W 82-67 77%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +19.0 +13.3 +6.1
  Dec 13, 2024 55   @ Nebraska L 68-85 44%     8 - 3 1 - 1 -3.8 +4.0 -8.1
  Dec 21, 2024 114   Chattanooga W 74-65 86%     9 - 3 +9.3 -0.6 +10.2
  Dec 29, 2024 172   Winthrop W 77-68 91%     10 - 3 +5.7 -1.2 +6.6
  Jan 02, 2025 62   Rutgers W 84-74 70%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +16.2 +7.0 +8.5
  Jan 05, 2025 60   @ Penn St. W 77-71 50%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +17.8 +9.7 +8.0
  Jan 08, 2025 61   USC W 82-69 70%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +19.3 +8.6 +10.5
  Jan 11, 2025 66   @ Iowa L 60-85 52%     13 - 4 4 - 2 -13.9 -12.7 -0.5
  Jan 14, 2025 19   Illinois L 69-94 42%     13 - 5 4 - 3 -11.3 -5.1 -3.9
  Jan 17, 2025 33   @ Ohio St. W 77-76 OT 33%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +17.3 +10.6 +6.7
  Jan 22, 2025 52   @ Northwestern L 70-79 43%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +4.7 +7.3 -3.0
  Jan 26, 2025 13   Maryland L 78-79 38%     14 - 7 5 - 5 +14.0 +22.1 -8.2
  Jan 31, 2025 16   @ Purdue L 76-81 23%     14 - 8 5 - 6 +14.6 +11.6 +2.9
  Feb 04, 2025 11   @ Wisconsin L 64-76 19%     14 - 9 5 - 7 +8.9 +3.3 +4.8
  Feb 08, 2025 28   Michigan L 67-70 49%     14 - 10 5 - 8 +8.9 +3.8 +5.0
  Feb 11, 2025 7   @ Michigan St. W 71-67 18%     15 - 10 6 - 8 +25.6 +15.9 +10.0
  Feb 14, 2025 27   UCLA L 68-72 49%     15 - 11 6 - 9 +8.0 +8.3 -0.7
  Feb 23, 2025 16   Purdue W 73-58 41%     16 - 11 7 - 9 +29.2 +10.7 +19.9
  Feb 26, 2025 60   Penn St. W 83-78 70%     17 - 11 8 - 9 +11.3 +13.8 -2.4
  Mar 01, 2025 100   @ Washington W 78-62 66%     18 - 11 9 - 9 +23.5 +8.4 +15.0
  Mar 04, 2025 36   @ Oregon L 72-76 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 33   Ohio St. W 74-73 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.9 0.9 6th
7th 8.5 8.5 7th
8th 5.0 9.7 14.7 8th
9th 8.1 45.0 53.0 9th
10th 23.0 23.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 31.0 49.9 19.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 19.1% 90.2% 1.6% 88.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.6 6.4 5.0 1.0 1.9 90.1%
10-10 49.9% 74.4% 1.1% 73.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 8.7 15.7 9.2 0.1 12.8 74.1%
9-11 31.0% 32.9% 0.8% 32.1% 10.7 0.2 0.8 2.1 6.3 0.9 20.8 32.3%
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 64.5% 1.1% 63.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 6.4 15.9 22.8 16.4 1.0 35.5 64.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 5.7 3.2 6.5 22.6 51.6 16.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 7.4 3.6 10.7 35.7 39.3 10.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7% 98.2% 8.1 1.8 18.7 50.3 24.6 2.9
Lose Out 18.8% 17.3% 11.2 0.3 13.1 3.9