Indiana
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#53
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#62
Pace71.9#96
Improvement-3.0#335

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#55
First Shot+2.3#106
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#29
Layup/Dunks+6.8#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#346
Freethrows+1.2#102
Improvement-2.5#335

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#58
First Shot+3.4#76
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#76
Layups/Dunks-0.7#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#141
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#135
Freethrows+2.2#48
Improvement-0.5#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 1.6% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 5.4% 7.0% 2.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.6% 40.6% 23.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 33.8% 39.6% 22.7%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 8.9
.500 or above 73.6% 81.0% 59.3%
.500 or above in Conference 30.2% 37.1% 16.8%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 2.5% 8.8%
First Four6.2% 6.4% 5.8%
First Round31.4% 37.3% 20.0%
Second Round15.2% 18.2% 9.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.2% 5.3% 2.3%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.8% 0.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Home) - 66.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 54 - 12
Quad 24 - 28 - 14
Quad 34 - 012 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 280   SIU Edwardsville W 80-61 95%     1 - 0 +9.5 +1.6 +7.2
  Nov 10, 2024 325   Eastern Illinois W 90-55 97%     2 - 0 +22.7 +10.0 +11.8
  Nov 16, 2024 63   South Carolina W 87-71 67%     3 - 0 +21.5 +14.9 +6.2
  Nov 21, 2024 159   UNC Greensboro W 69-58 88%     4 - 0 +8.0 -2.2 +10.6
  Nov 27, 2024 54   Louisville L 61-89 50%     4 - 1 -18.1 -10.1 -7.1
  Nov 28, 2024 6   Gonzaga L 73-89 19%     4 - 2 +3.3 +3.2 +1.0
  Nov 29, 2024 75   Providence W 89-73 59%     5 - 2 +23.6 +26.5 -2.0
  Dec 03, 2024 134   Sam Houston St. W 97-71 86%     6 - 2 +24.3 +11.9 +10.1
  Dec 06, 2024 197   Miami (OH) W 76-57 91%     7 - 2 +14.2 +4.7 +10.3
  Dec 09, 2024 110   Minnesota W 82-67 82%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +15.4 +12.5 +3.3
  Dec 13, 2024 41   @ Nebraska L 68-85 33%     8 - 3 1 - 1 -2.6 +4.7 -7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 172   Chattanooga W 74-65 89%     9 - 3 +5.3 +0.1 +5.6
  Dec 29, 2024 184   Winthrop W 77-68 90%     10 - 3 +4.8 +0.0 +4.6
  Jan 02, 2025 64   Rutgers W 79-75 66%    
  Jan 05, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 75-81 30%    
  Jan 08, 2025 71   USC W 77-72 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 39   @ Iowa L 80-85 34%    
  Jan 14, 2025 21   Illinois L 77-79 41%    
  Jan 17, 2025 28   @ Ohio St. L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 22, 2025 51   @ Northwestern L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 26, 2025 13   Maryland L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 31, 2025 27   @ Purdue L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 04, 2025 33   @ Wisconsin L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 11   Michigan L 75-78 37%    
  Feb 11, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 69-78 21%    
  Feb 14, 2025 16   UCLA L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 23, 2025 27   Purdue L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 31   Penn St. W 79-78 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 92   @ Washington W 75-74 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 19   @ Oregon L 71-79 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 28   Ohio St. L 75-76 48%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 1.8 0.1 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 2.3 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.8 0.8 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.6 3.0 0.2 7.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.9 4.8 1.0 0.0 7.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 5.2 3.1 0.1 9.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.1 0.9 0.0 10.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.3 2.0 0.1 10.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 3.0 0.8 0.0 9.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 5.8 17th
18th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 18th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.5 7.8 11.9 14.3 15.1 13.8 11.4 8.1 5.3 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 80.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 48.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 2.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.5% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
14-6 1.6% 99.6% 11.6% 88.0% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 3.0% 99.2% 7.9% 91.3% 6.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.1%
12-8 5.3% 98.0% 2.4% 95.6% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.9%
11-9 8.1% 89.5% 2.1% 87.4% 8.4 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.9 89.3%
10-10 11.4% 77.8% 1.1% 76.7% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.7 2.8 1.1 2.5 77.6%
9-11 13.8% 41.7% 0.8% 40.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.9 0.2 8.1 41.2%
8-12 15.1% 12.9% 0.3% 12.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.2 13.2 12.6%
7-13 14.3% 1.4% 0.2% 1.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 14.1 1.2%
6-14 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 11.8 0.1%
5-15 7.8% 7.8
4-16 4.5% 4.5
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 34.6% 1.2% 33.4% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.6 4.3 6.0 6.6 6.2 5.7 0.4 65.4 33.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%