Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.1#4
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#30
Pace72.5#88
Improvement-5.8#362

Offense
Total Offense+12.7#3
First Shot+10.8#4
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#79
Layup/Dunks+8.4#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#198
Freethrows+4.2#11
Improvement-4.2#364

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#16
First Shot+3.7#71
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#6
Layups/Dunks-2.4#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#21
Freethrows+0.6#146
Improvement-1.6#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.0% 3.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 18.3% 18.4% 6.3%
Top 2 Seed 37.3% 37.4% 12.2%
Top 4 Seed 66.5% 66.6% 37.6%
Top 6 Seed 83.9% 84.0% 62.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.9% 98.9% 96.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.5% 96.5% 93.1%
Average Seed 3.8 3.8 5.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 86.8% 86.8% 81.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 1.6%
First Round98.8% 98.8% 96.8%
Second Round89.5% 89.6% 76.7%
Sweet Sixteen63.9% 63.9% 45.0%
Elite Eight40.2% 40.3% 24.9%
Final Four24.1% 24.1% 13.8%
Championship Game13.8% 13.8% 6.3%
National Champion7.7% 7.7% 1.1%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 4
Quad 27 - 113 - 5
Quad 36 - 019 - 5
Quad 49 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 12   Baylor W 101-63 75%     1 - 0 +51.1 +30.9 +20.1
  Nov 10, 2024 62   Arizona St. W 88-80 90%     2 - 0 +14.0 +16.9 -3.1
  Nov 15, 2024 147   Umass Lowell W 113-54 97%     3 - 0 +56.4 +19.7 +27.6
  Nov 18, 2024 41   @ San Diego St. W 80-67 72%     4 - 0 +26.9 +16.4 +10.7
  Nov 20, 2024 261   Long Beach St. W 84-41 99%     5 - 0 +34.5 +15.0 +24.1
  Nov 27, 2024 39   West Virginia L 78-86 OT 79%     5 - 1 +3.7 +5.0 -0.6
  Nov 28, 2024 45   Indiana W 89-73 81%     6 - 1 +26.6 +15.3 +10.4
  Nov 29, 2024 122   Davidson W 90-65 94%     7 - 1 +27.5 +14.4 +12.5
  Dec 07, 2024 9   Kentucky L 89-90 OT 61%     7 - 2 +16.3 +17.1 -0.8
  Dec 14, 2024 11   Connecticut L 71-77 62%     7 - 3 +11.0 +3.4 +7.4
  Dec 18, 2024 241   Nicholls St. W 102-72 99%     8 - 3 +22.5 +16.3 +3.3
  Dec 21, 2024 264   Bucknell W 88-59 99.6%   
  Dec 28, 2024 14   UCLA W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 30, 2024 237   @ Pepperdine W 89-68 98%    
  Jan 02, 2025 325   Portland W 94-62 99.9%   
  Jan 04, 2025 165   @ Loyola Marymount W 83-65 95%    
  Jan 08, 2025 319   San Diego W 94-62 99.9%   
  Jan 11, 2025 77   Washington St. W 88-72 93%    
  Jan 16, 2025 65   @ Oregon St. W 77-69 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 72   Santa Clara W 86-71 92%    
  Jan 25, 2025 325   @ Portland W 91-65 99%    
  Jan 28, 2025 65   Oregon St. W 80-66 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 43   @ St. Mary's W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 165   Loyola Marymount W 86-62 98%    
  Feb 08, 2025 277   @ Pacific W 87-64 98%    
  Feb 13, 2025 59   San Francisco W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 237   Pepperdine W 92-65 99%    
  Feb 19, 2025 77   @ Washington St. W 85-75 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 43   St. Mary's W 77-65 86%    
  Feb 27, 2025 72   @ Santa Clara W 83-74 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 59   @ San Francisco W 78-70 76%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.7 11.3 23.7 29.5 19.4 86.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.6 1.0 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 7.2 15.0 24.7 29.5 19.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 19.4    19.4
17-1 100.0% 29.5    29.0 0.5
16-2 96.1% 23.7    20.5 3.2 0.0
15-3 75.5% 11.3    6.7 4.1 0.5 0.0
14-4 37.6% 2.7    0.6 1.3 0.7 0.1
13-5 6.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 86.8% 86.8 76.3 9.1 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 19.4% 100.0% 80.1% 19.9% 1.6 10.6 6.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 29.5% 100.0% 75.3% 24.7% 2.4 7.0 9.9 7.2 3.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-2 24.7% 99.9% 68.6% 31.3% 4.1 0.7 2.4 5.5 7.6 4.5 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-3 15.0% 99.3% 62.4% 36.8% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.4 3.6 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.1%
14-4 7.2% 96.0% 53.2% 42.8% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.3 91.5%
13-5 2.9% 90.7% 44.8% 45.9% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 83.1%
12-6 1.0% 79.4% 35.6% 43.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 68.1%
11-7 0.3% 63.6% 29.4% 34.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 48.5%
10-8 0.1% 51.2% 22.0% 29.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.5%
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.9% 69.6% 29.3% 3.8 18.3 19.0 15.0 14.2 9.7 7.6 5.8 4.1 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 1.1 96.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.4% 100.0% 1.4 65.3 31.0 3.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 100.0% 1.8 40.9 41.6 14.8 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 1.9 35.6 42.2 17.2 5.0