Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.9#1
Expected Predictive Rating+23.3#3
Pace74.0#69
Improvement-2.4#355

Offense
Total Offense+14.8#1
First Shot+16.1#1
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#248
Layup/Dunks+9.8#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#68
Freethrows+3.7#32
Improvement-1.3#340

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#17
First Shot+6.1#33
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#120
Layups/Dunks-8.9#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#1
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#15
Freethrows+1.0#125
Improvement-1.1#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.5% 9.5% 3.4%
#1 Seed 39.5% 39.6% 18.4%
Top 2 Seed 66.3% 66.4% 31.0%
Top 4 Seed 87.8% 87.9% 67.8%
Top 6 Seed 95.4% 95.4% 77.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.7% 97.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.6% 98.7% 91.3%
Average Seed 2.4 2.4 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 90.4% 90.4% 71.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 4.6%
First Round99.6% 99.6% 94.3%
Second Round95.1% 95.1% 82.8%
Sweet Sixteen74.7% 74.8% 52.9%
Elite Eight52.8% 52.8% 33.3%
Final Four35.3% 35.3% 16.1%
Championship Game22.9% 22.9% 6.9%
National Champion14.4% 14.5% 4.6%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 13 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 16 - 2
Quad 27 - 113 - 2
Quad 37 - 020 - 3
Quad 49 - 028 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 11   Baylor W 101-63 79%     1 - 0 +51.6 +32.1 +19.2
  Nov 10, 2024 53   Arizona St. W 88-80 92%     2 - 0 +14.3 +17.1 -3.0
  Nov 15, 2024 154   Umass Lowell W 113-54 98%     3 - 0 +56.2 +20.8 +26.3
  Nov 18, 2024 62   @ San Diego St. W 80-67 83%     4 - 0 +24.6 +17.2 +7.7
  Nov 20, 2024 259   Long Beach St. W 93-63 99.8%   
  Nov 27, 2024 76   West Virginia W 86-72 91%    
  Dec 07, 2024 10   Kentucky W 89-84 67%    
  Dec 14, 2024 2   Connecticut W 77-75 56%    
  Dec 18, 2024 220   Nicholls St. W 90-62 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 233   Bucknell W 91-63 99.5%   
  Dec 28, 2024 28   UCLA W 77-68 79%    
  Dec 30, 2024 238   @ Pepperdine W 91-68 98%    
  Jan 02, 2025 289   Portland W 94-62 99.8%   
  Jan 04, 2025 152   @ Loyola Marymount W 84-65 95%    
  Jan 08, 2025 298   San Diego W 96-64 99.8%   
  Jan 11, 2025 80   Washington St. W 90-72 94%    
  Jan 16, 2025 98   @ Oregon St. W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 18, 2025 99   Santa Clara W 92-72 96%    
  Jan 25, 2025 289   @ Portland W 91-65 99%    
  Jan 28, 2025 98   Oregon St. W 84-64 96%    
  Feb 01, 2025 44   @ St. Mary's W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 06, 2025 152   Loyola Marymount W 87-62 98%    
  Feb 08, 2025 291   @ Pacific W 92-66 99%    
  Feb 13, 2025 59   San Francisco W 86-70 92%    
  Feb 15, 2025 238   Pepperdine W 94-65 99%    
  Feb 19, 2025 80   @ Washington St. W 87-75 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 44   St. Mary's W 83-69 89%    
  Feb 27, 2025 99   @ Santa Clara W 89-75 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 59   @ San Francisco W 83-73 80%    
Projected Record 27 - 2 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 6.6 18.3 31.4 32.6 90.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.1 1.5 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.3 9.8 19.7 31.4 32.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 32.6    32.6
17-1 100.0% 31.4    30.3 1.0
16-2 92.6% 18.3    15.0 3.3 0.0
15-3 67.6% 6.6    3.7 2.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 32.6% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 90.4% 90.4 82.1 7.6 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 32.6% 100.0% 85.4% 14.6% 1.4 22.5 8.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 31.4% 100.0% 79.3% 20.7% 1.8 14.1 11.6 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 19.7% 100.0% 71.0% 29.0% 2.9 2.8 5.5 5.7 3.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 9.8% 99.6% 62.7% 36.9% 4.4 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.7 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
14-4 4.3% 98.7% 55.5% 43.2% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.1%
13-5 1.5% 95.0% 42.4% 52.7% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 91.4%
12-6 0.5% 88.3% 30.8% 57.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 83.1%
11-7 0.1% 64.9% 28.1% 36.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 51.2%
10-8 0.1% 57.1% 25.0% 32.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.9%
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 76.1% 23.6% 2.4 39.5 26.8 13.0 8.5 4.7 2.9 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 98.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.1% 100.0% 1.2 77.3 21.9 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 1.3 72.3 24.8 2.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 1.3 74.0 23.0 2.6 0.5