Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#188
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#165
Pace73.1#70
Improvement-4.2#341

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#144
First Shot+3.4#85
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#307
Layup/Dunks+3.4#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#268
Freethrows+2.1#69
Improvement-4.0#347

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#247
First Shot-1.9#238
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#229
Layups/Dunks-5.5#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#115
Freethrows+1.1#103
Improvement-0.2#195
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.3% 22.9% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 98.0% 99.2% 96.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 96.6% 85.9%
Conference Champion 11.9% 16.6% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 2.2%
First Round19.6% 22.4% 14.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 417 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 232   St. Peter's W 81-74 70%     1 - 0 +0.3 +9.6 -9.3
  Nov 15, 2024 14   @ Gonzaga L 54-113 4%     1 - 1 -39.6 -21.1 -9.4
  Nov 17, 2024 95   @ Washington L 69-74 17%     1 - 2 +3.7 +1.3 +2.4
  Nov 23, 2024 184   Quinnipiac W 80-70 60%     2 - 2 +6.2 +4.8 +1.1
  Nov 25, 2024 206   Merrimack W 81-74 64%     3 - 2 +2.1 +4.9 -3.2
  Nov 27, 2024 102   @ Saint Louis L 90-93 22%     3 - 3 +3.8 +22.7 -19.1
  Dec 01, 2024 230   @ Central Connecticut St. L 67-69 50%     3 - 4 -3.2 -3.6 +0.4
  Dec 07, 2024 171   @ Massachusetts W 96-83 36%     4 - 4 +15.3 +10.5 +2.8
  Dec 11, 2024 314   LIU Brooklyn W 69-62 83%     5 - 4 -4.4 -7.6 +3.0
  Dec 14, 2024 274   Dartmouth W 92-83 77%     6 - 4 -0.2 +14.6 -14.9
  Dec 18, 2024 312   Stonehill W 78-67 83%     7 - 4 -0.4 +2.6 -2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 282   Boston University W 83-71 79%     8 - 4 +2.3 +15.7 -12.2
  Jan 04, 2025 260   @ Albany W 73-69 56%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +1.1 +1.5 -0.2
  Jan 09, 2025 211   Vermont L 63-67 66%     9 - 5 1 - 1 -9.4 -5.3 -4.4
  Jan 11, 2025 355   NJIT W 70-62 91%     10 - 5 2 - 1 -8.3 -0.6 -7.0
  Jan 18, 2025 157   @ Bryant L 62-85 33%     10 - 6 2 - 2 -19.8 -14.0 -4.0
  Jan 23, 2025 202   Maine W 74-71 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 351   New Hampshire W 81-67 91%    
  Jan 30, 2025 355   @ NJIT W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 01, 2025 271   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 86-84 57%    
  Feb 06, 2025 322   @ Binghamton W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 13, 2025 260   Albany W 82-75 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 351   @ New Hampshire W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 20, 2025 271   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 89-81 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 211   @ Vermont L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 27, 2025 157   Bryant W 84-83 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 322   Binghamton W 80-69 85%    
  Mar 04, 2025 202   @ Maine L 71-73 42%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.1 4.7 1.6 11.9 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 9.4 8.3 2.3 0.1 22.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.0 11.0 10.0 2.0 0.1 27.5 3rd
4th 0.7 4.6 10.2 7.1 1.2 0.0 23.8 4th
5th 0.4 2.6 4.6 2.1 0.2 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.7 10.0 16.5 21.0 21.9 14.5 7.1 1.8 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 92.7% 1.6    1.3 0.3
13-3 66.6% 4.7    2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
12-4 28.6% 4.1    0.9 2.2 1.0 0.1
11-5 6.0% 1.3    0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 4.9 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 1.8% 41.2% 41.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0
13-3 7.1% 37.9% 37.9% 14.2 0.3 1.6 0.8 0.0 4.4
12-4 14.5% 30.9% 30.9% 14.7 0.1 1.4 2.6 0.3 10.0
11-5 21.9% 22.5% 22.5% 15.1 0.0 0.6 3.0 1.2 17.0
10-6 21.0% 17.3% 17.3% 15.4 0.2 1.8 1.7 17.4
9-7 16.5% 14.7% 14.7% 15.6 0.0 0.8 1.6 14.1
8-8 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 9.0
7-9 4.7% 7.7% 7.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.3
6-10 1.9% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.1 1.8
5-11 0.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 9.3 6.1 79.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.0 4.1 17.8 53.4 23.3 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%