Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#225
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#237
Pace72.0#76
Improvement-5.9#351

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#139
First Shot+3.5#83
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#310
Layup/Dunks+3.3#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#269
Freethrows+2.0#67
Improvement-3.5#325

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#313
First Shot-3.8#301
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#261
Layups/Dunks-6.6#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#143
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement-2.4#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 14.1% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 78.7% 95.4% 67.8%
.500 or above in Conference 29.6% 55.7% 12.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four6.5% 5.6% 7.0%
First Round9.1% 11.8% 7.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Away) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 414 - 716 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 292   St. Peter's W 81-74 73%     1 - 0 -2.7 +7.3 -10.0
  Nov 15, 2024 11   @ Gonzaga L 54-113 2%     1 - 1 -38.1 -19.4 -9.7
  Nov 17, 2024 90   @ Washington L 69-74 14%     1 - 2 +3.3 +0.3 +3.0
  Nov 23, 2024 189   Quinnipiac W 80-70 53%     2 - 2 +5.8 +4.5 +0.9
  Nov 25, 2024 214   Merrimack W 81-74 57%     3 - 2 +1.8 +6.5 -5.0
  Nov 27, 2024 109   @ Saint Louis L 90-93 19%     3 - 3 +2.9 +23.9 -21.1
  Dec 01, 2024 197   @ Central Connecticut St. L 67-69 35%     3 - 4 -1.5 -3.6 +2.1
  Dec 07, 2024 168   @ Massachusetts W 96-83 29%     4 - 4 +15.2 +11.8 +1.4
  Dec 11, 2024 323   LIU Brooklyn W 69-62 79%     5 - 4 -5.0 -6.3 +1.2
  Dec 14, 2024 206   Dartmouth W 92-83 56%     6 - 4 +4.0 +17.6 -13.7
  Dec 18, 2024 324   Stonehill W 78-67 80%     7 - 4 -1.3 +1.1 -1.9
  Dec 21, 2024 300   Boston University W 83-71 74%     8 - 4 +1.6 +15.0 -12.1
  Jan 04, 2025 267   @ Albany W 73-69 48%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +1.0 +2.3 -1.1
  Jan 09, 2025 230   Vermont L 63-67 60%     9 - 5 1 - 1 -10.2 -5.5 -4.9
  Jan 11, 2025 346   NJIT W 70-62 86%     10 - 5 2 - 1 -7.2 -1.4 -5.1
  Jan 18, 2025 161   @ Bryant L 62-85 28%     10 - 6 2 - 2 -20.4 -14.6 -3.9
  Jan 23, 2025 209   Maine L 85-86 OT 56%     10 - 7 2 - 3 -6.1 +6.6 -12.7
  Jan 25, 2025 355   New Hampshire W 97-80 88%     11 - 7 3 - 3 +0.7 +17.2 -16.5
  Jan 30, 2025 346   @ NJIT L 62-83 74%     11 - 8 3 - 4 -31.1 -7.3 -25.7
  Feb 01, 2025 288   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83-67 54%     12 - 8 4 - 4 +11.5 +5.6 +6.0
  Feb 06, 2025 299   @ Binghamton L 54-66 56%     12 - 9 4 - 5 -17.1 -19.0 +1.5
  Feb 13, 2025 267   Albany L 88-90 OT 67%     12 - 10 4 - 6 -10.1 +3.0 -12.9
  Feb 15, 2025 355   @ New Hampshire L 79-80 77%     12 - 11 4 - 7 -12.2 +2.8 -15.1
  Feb 20, 2025 288   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 98-79 72%     13 - 11 5 - 7 +9.4 +19.0 -9.2
  Feb 22, 2025 230   @ Vermont L 68-70 39%    
  Feb 27, 2025 161   Bryant L 83-84 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 299   Binghamton W 78-71 75%    
  Mar 04, 2025 209   @ Maine L 72-75 35%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.0 2.4 3rd
4th 4.3 13.5 3.6 21.4 4th
5th 1.9 20.7 9.6 0.3 32.4 5th
6th 1.4 18.5 12.4 0.2 32.4 6th
7th 3.4 6.3 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 1.4 0.2 1.6 8th
9th 9th
Total 6.1 26.9 37.4 23.6 6.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 6.0% 17.4% 17.4% 15.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 4.9
8-8 23.6% 16.5% 16.5% 15.8 0.0 0.9 3.0 19.7
7-9 37.4% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.2 4.0 33.2
6-10 26.9% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4 24.5
5-11 6.1% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.3 5.9
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 1.8 9.9 88.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 15.1 9.6 68.3 22.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0%
Lose Out 4.4%