Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#101
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#173
Pace72.0#98
Improvement+0.8#94

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#56
First Shot+3.2#85
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#84
Layup/Dunks+2.7#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#66
Freethrows-3.7#328
Improvement+1.2#36

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#175
First Shot+1.1#141
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#256
Layups/Dunks+5.2#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#291
Freethrows-1.6#268
Improvement-0.4#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 13.5% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 3.6% 0.9%
Average Seed 10.7 10.4 11.3
.500 or above 71.5% 83.0% 61.0%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 71.0% 55.6%
Conference Champion 8.9% 11.9% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 2.5% 5.6%
First Four0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
First Round9.4% 12.9% 6.2%
Second Round3.0% 4.5% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Neutral) - 47.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 54 - 8
Quad 37 - 511 - 12
Quad 47 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 99   Santa Clara L 78-85 49%     0 - 1 -1.8 +2.7 -4.1
  Nov 16, 2024 152   Loyola Marymount W 77-71 76%     1 - 1 +3.4 +2.8 +0.5
  Nov 22, 2024 94   Wichita St. L 76-77 48%    
  Nov 25, 2024 224   Quinnipiac W 84-73 85%    
  Nov 27, 2024 154   Umass Lowell W 83-75 76%    
  Dec 02, 2024 320   Jackson St. W 85-68 94%    
  Dec 05, 2024 59   @ San Francisco L 73-80 26%    
  Dec 08, 2024 349   Chicago St. W 88-67 97%    
  Dec 15, 2024 172   @ Illinois St. W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 18, 2024 204   Wofford W 79-69 81%    
  Dec 22, 2024 89   @ Grand Canyon L 76-80 36%    
  Dec 31, 2024 161   @ Fordham W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 03, 2025 100   Saint Joseph's W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 08, 2025 114   St. Bonaventure W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 14, 2025 50   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 71-79 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 197   @ Richmond W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 22, 2025 120   La Salle W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 143   @ George Washington W 81-80 53%    
  Jan 28, 2025 50   Virginia Commonwealth L 74-76 45%    
  Jan 31, 2025 64   Dayton L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 04, 2025 129   @ Massachusetts L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 07, 2025 100   @ Saint Joseph's L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 11, 2025 96   George Mason W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 14, 2025 105   @ Loyola Chicago L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 117   Rhode Island W 83-78 65%    
  Feb 25, 2025 130   @ Davidson L 74-75 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 105   Loyola Chicago W 78-74 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 64   @ Dayton L 71-78 29%    
  Mar 08, 2025 207   Duquesne W 78-68 81%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.4 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 8.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.5 3.5 3.7 0.7 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 4.3 1.3 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.2 2.4 0.2 7.7 7th
8th 0.3 2.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.9 1.2 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.2 0.2 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.9 0.1 5.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.1 4.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.2 4.8 6.8 9.1 10.6 11.7 12.0 11.1 9.7 7.7 5.1 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.6% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 96.2% 1.6    1.5 0.2
15-3 79.1% 2.5    1.6 0.8 0.1
14-4 48.1% 2.4    1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 16.9% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 5.1 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 96.3% 61.1% 35.2% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.5%
17-1 0.6% 81.6% 42.6% 39.1% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 68.0%
16-2 1.7% 63.7% 33.1% 30.6% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 45.7%
15-3 3.2% 44.2% 28.0% 16.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.8 22.5%
14-4 5.1% 31.0% 23.3% 7.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.5 10.1%
13-5 7.7% 21.4% 19.4% 2.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.0 6.1 2.5%
12-6 9.7% 13.4% 12.9% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 8.4 0.5%
11-7 11.1% 8.6% 8.5% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.2 0.1%
10-8 12.0% 4.8% 4.8% 12.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.4
9-9 11.7% 2.3% 2.3% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.4
8-10 10.6% 1.5% 1.5% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4
7-11 9.1% 0.9% 0.9% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
6-12 6.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
5-13 4.8% 0.3% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
4-14 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.8% 7.8% 1.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 3.4 3.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 90.2 2.1%