Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#109
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#127
Pace68.4#174
Improvement+2.0#101

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#118
First Shot+3.3#89
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#275
Layup/Dunks+2.4#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#51
Freethrows-0.9#242
Improvement-2.2#288

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#128
First Shot+1.9#117
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#211
Layups/Dunks+0.1#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#155
Freethrows+2.8#29
Improvement+4.2#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.2% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 60.8% 74.5% 34.5%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 94.5% 66.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.8% 3.2% 1.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Home) - 65.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 82 - 11
Quad 37 - 58 - 15
Quad 47 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 60   Santa Clara L 78-85 27%     0 - 1 +2.7 +5.8 -2.7
  Nov 16, 2024 169   Loyola Marymount W 77-71 73%     1 - 1 +3.1 +5.1 -2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 115   Wichita St. L 63-88 52%     1 - 2 -22.2 -14.0 -5.6
  Nov 25, 2024 189   Quinnipiac W 81-67 77%     2 - 2 +9.8 -1.9 +9.9
  Nov 27, 2024 225   Umass Lowell W 93-90 81%     3 - 2 -3.0 +18.2 -21.1
  Dec 02, 2024 271   Jackson St. W 74-66 86%     4 - 2 -0.3 +3.0 -2.7
  Dec 05, 2024 69   @ San Francisco L 61-78 24%     4 - 3 -6.3 -5.2 -1.1
  Dec 08, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 85-62 97%     5 - 3 +4.7 +9.8 -3.9
  Dec 15, 2024 127   @ Illinois St. L 77-81 46%     5 - 4 +0.3 +11.8 -12.0
  Dec 18, 2024 142   Wofford L 71-74 68%     5 - 5 -4.5 +3.0 -7.8
  Dec 22, 2024 89   @ Grand Canyon L 72-73 31%     5 - 6 +7.4 +6.6 +0.7
  Dec 31, 2024 204   @ Fordham W 88-63 62%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +25.2 +15.1 +10.2
  Jan 03, 2025 78   Saint Joseph's W 73-57 44%     7 - 6 2 - 0 +20.8 +8.9 +13.0
  Jan 08, 2025 106   St. Bonaventure W 73-68 57%     8 - 6 3 - 0 +6.5 +6.9 +0.0
  Jan 14, 2025 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-78 13%     8 - 7 3 - 1 -0.3 +3.6 -5.4
  Jan 18, 2025 218   @ Richmond W 63-59 65%     9 - 7 4 - 1 +3.4 -11.5 +14.8
  Jan 22, 2025 236   La Salle W 64-52 83%     10 - 7 5 - 1 +5.4 -11.1 +16.6
  Jan 25, 2025 117   @ George Washington L 61-67 42%     10 - 8 5 - 2 -0.7 -2.8 +1.6
  Jan 28, 2025 34   Virginia Commonwealth W 78-69 24%     11 - 8 6 - 2 +19.6 +7.4 +11.8
  Jan 31, 2025 83   Dayton L 63-71 47%     11 - 9 6 - 3 -3.8 -7.5 +3.3
  Feb 04, 2025 168   @ Massachusetts W 73-71 55%     12 - 9 7 - 3 +4.2 +5.6 -1.3
  Feb 07, 2025 78   @ Saint Joseph's L 63-76 27%     12 - 10 7 - 4 -3.1 -1.0 -2.6
  Feb 11, 2025 75   George Mason L 74-76 OT 44%     12 - 11 7 - 5 +3.1 +9.8 -6.7
  Feb 14, 2025 110   @ Loyola Chicago L 69-78 40%     12 - 12 7 - 6 -3.1 +1.1 -4.3
  Feb 22, 2025 121   Rhode Island W 77-73 66%    
  Feb 25, 2025 129   @ Davidson L 72-73 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 110   Loyola Chicago W 73-70 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 83   @ Dayton L 70-76 27%    
  Mar 08, 2025 132   Duquesne W 70-66 68%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 2.4 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 5.2 11.2 1.3 17.7 4th
5th 1.6 17.2 4.0 22.8 5th
6th 0.4 16.9 10.3 0.1 27.6 6th
7th 2.9 8.7 0.1 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 5.2 1.5 6.7 8th
9th 0.3 3.6 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 1.0 0.8 1.8 10th
11th 0.8 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.2 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 2.4 13.0 28.8 33.0 19.2 3.7 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.7% 7.0% 7.0% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.5
11-7 19.2% 6.3% 6.3% 12.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 18.0
10-8 33.0% 2.5% 2.5% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 32.2
9-9 28.8% 1.3% 1.3% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 28.4
8-10 13.0% 0.8% 0.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.9
7-11 2.4% 2.4
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 12.7 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.9 19.2 73.1 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%
Lose Out 0.8%