Santa Clara
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#60
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#79
Pace70.7#115
Improvement+4.2#33

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#52
First Shot+4.9#61
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#122
Layup/Dunks+3.0#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#34
Freethrows-0.6#219
Improvement+1.3#115

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#71
First Shot+1.9#115
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#43
Layups/Dunks+1.2#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#120
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement+2.9#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 14.4% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.0% 8.5% 4.6%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 10.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.6% 6.5% 4.1%
First Round9.4% 11.0% 7.0%
Second Round2.9% 3.7% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 25 - 37 - 9
Quad 34 - 312 - 12
Quad 49 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 109   Saint Louis W 85-78 73%     1 - 0 +10.4 +10.2 -0.1
  Nov 08, 2024 65   Arizona St. L 74-81 55%     1 - 1 +1.3 +6.1 -4.8
  Nov 13, 2024 136   North Dakota St. L 80-88 OT 85%     1 - 2 -9.2 -5.3 -3.3
  Nov 16, 2024 80   @ Nevada L 59-85 50%     1 - 3 -16.3 -5.1 -13.0
  Nov 19, 2024 149   UC Riverside W 96-54 86%     2 - 3 +40.1 +23.8 +17.5
  Nov 23, 2024 88   Stanford L 69-71 72%     2 - 4 +1.8 -3.1 +4.9
  Nov 28, 2024 64   TCU W 69-52 55%     3 - 4 +25.4 +4.6 +21.0
  Nov 29, 2024 90   Washington L 69-76 65%     3 - 5 -1.3 +1.6 -3.1
  Dec 03, 2024 86   @ McNeese St. W 74-67 52%     4 - 5 +16.2 +11.1 +5.6
  Dec 07, 2024 254   Fresno St. W 81-66 94%     5 - 5 +7.2 -0.7 +6.7
  Dec 14, 2024 94   Bradley W 84-74 67%     6 - 5 +15.1 +19.1 -3.2
  Dec 18, 2024 131   Kennesaw St. W 94-74 84%     7 - 5 +19.1 +15.1 +2.5
  Dec 21, 2024 243   South Dakota W 98-81 93%     8 - 5 +10.0 +8.1 +0.3
  Dec 28, 2024 226   Pepperdine W 91-80 92%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +4.9 +13.6 -8.9
  Dec 30, 2024 69   @ San Francisco L 94-97 OT 46%     9 - 6 1 - 1 +7.7 +16.6 -8.5
  Jan 02, 2025 314   @ San Diego W 81-80 93%     10 - 6 2 - 1 -5.6 +5.6 -11.2
  Jan 09, 2025 87   Oregon St. W 82-81 OT 71%     11 - 6 3 - 1 +4.9 +1.6 +3.1
  Jan 11, 2025 69   San Francisco W 77-54 66%     12 - 6 4 - 1 +28.6 +8.6 +20.2
  Jan 16, 2025 169   @ Loyola Marymount L 54-57 77%     12 - 7 4 - 2 -0.8 -11.2 +10.1
  Jan 18, 2025 11   @ Gonzaga W 103-99 15%     13 - 7 5 - 2 +24.9 +25.1 -0.7
  Jan 23, 2025 107   Washington St. W 93-65 80%     14 - 7 6 - 2 +29.0 +23.9 +6.4
  Jan 25, 2025 87   @ Oregon St. L 69-83 53%     14 - 8 6 - 3 -5.1 +1.8 -7.7
  Jan 29, 2025 30   St. Mary's L 54-67 41%     14 - 9 6 - 4 -0.9 -4.3 +1.8
  Feb 01, 2025 277   Pacific W 83-49 95%     15 - 9 7 - 4 +25.0 +12.1 +15.6
  Feb 06, 2025 284   @ Portland W 97-50 90%     16 - 9 8 - 4 +42.6 +18.9 +23.3
  Feb 08, 2025 314   San Diego W 93-70 97%     17 - 9 9 - 4 +11.3 +14.3 -3.3
  Feb 11, 2025 30   @ St. Mary's L 64-73 24%     17 - 10 9 - 5 +8.2 +6.4 +1.1
  Feb 20, 2025 169   Loyola Marymount W 76-61 88%     18 - 10 10 - 5 +12.1 +6.2 +6.3
  Feb 22, 2025 107   @ Washington St. W 80-76 61%    
  Feb 25, 2025 11   Gonzaga L 77-83 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 277   @ Pacific W 81-67 89%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 5.8 5.8 2nd
3rd 21.9 11.6 33.5 3rd
4th 1.6 27.9 27.2 56.7 4th
5th 1.9 2.2 4.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 3.4 30.1 49.1 17.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 17.4% 25.6% 10.3% 15.3% 10.5 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 0.2 12.9 17.1%
12-6 49.1% 11.3% 5.5% 5.9% 10.8 0.1 1.1 4.0 0.4 43.6 6.2%
11-7 30.1% 7.4% 4.3% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.2 27.8 3.3%
10-8 3.4% 5.8% 4.1% 1.7% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.2 1.8%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.4% 5.9% 6.6% 10.7 0.1 0.5 2.7 8.3 0.8 87.6 7.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 9.9 7.3 18.0 51.1 23.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.5% 28.9% 10.7 1.4 7.1 18.9 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.5% 15.8% 10.9 0.1 1.5 13.2 0.9
Lose Out 0.3%