North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#136
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#136
Pace63.7#296
Improvement-1.4#256

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#53
First Shot+6.2#40
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#220
Layup/Dunks-4.0#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+12.5#1
Freethrows-1.1#255
Improvement-0.8#224

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#307
First Shot-5.3#335
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#105
Layups/Dunks-3.3#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows+2.0#58
Improvement-0.5#213
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.7% 22.3% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.7% 22.3% 20.4%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 67.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 22 - 23 - 2
Quad 33 - 76 - 8
Quad 413 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 127   Illinois St. L 68-77 58%     0 - 1 -9.8 -3.7 -6.8
  Nov 11, 2024 240   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-86 62%     0 - 2 -6.8 +13.5 -20.9
  Nov 13, 2024 60   @ Santa Clara W 88-80 OT 15%     1 - 2 +20.3 +12.9 +6.7
  Nov 18, 2024 179   @ Southern Illinois L 44-69 49%     1 - 3 -23.5 -24.1 -1.2
  Nov 26, 2024 113   @ Samford L 98-103 OT 34%     1 - 4 +0.5 +20.9 -20.0
  Nov 27, 2024 348   West Georgia W 73-61 90%     2 - 4 -0.8 -1.8 +1.7
  Nov 28, 2024 125   Utah Valley W 83-63 47%     3 - 4 +22.1 +27.8 -2.2
  Dec 04, 2024 297   @ Weber St. W 77-73 73%     4 - 4 -1.1 +11.1 -11.6
  Dec 07, 2024 151   Northern Colorado W 82-70 62%     5 - 4 +10.1 -1.9 +10.8
  Dec 10, 2024 66   @ Butler W 71-68 18%     6 - 4 +13.9 +12.5 +1.9
  Dec 15, 2024 302   Western Michigan W 98-62 86%     7 - 4 +25.6 +24.0 +3.0
  Dec 23, 2024 240   Cal St. Bakersfield W 94-60 78%     8 - 4 +27.1 +18.3 +9.6
  Jan 02, 2025 126   St. Thomas L 85-89 58%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -4.8 +13.3 -18.4
  Jan 04, 2025 187   Nebraska Omaha L 80-85 70%     8 - 6 0 - 2 -9.1 +2.6 -11.8
  Jan 09, 2025 322   @ Oral Roberts W 110-96 78%     9 - 6 1 - 2 +7.1 +33.5 -26.1
  Jan 11, 2025 315   @ Denver W 69-50 77%     10 - 6 2 - 2 +12.4 +3.0 +12.0
  Jan 16, 2025 245   UMKC W 71-64 79%     11 - 6 3 - 2 -0.3 -0.9 +0.8
  Jan 18, 2025 243   @ South Dakota W 103-77 62%     12 - 6 4 - 2 +24.1 +21.5 +1.7
  Jan 25, 2025 278   North Dakota W 87-82 83%     13 - 6 5 - 2 -4.0 +4.9 -9.0
  Jan 30, 2025 111   South Dakota St. L 62-72 52%     13 - 7 5 - 3 -9.3 -3.8 -6.7
  Feb 02, 2025 126   @ St. Thomas L 62-79 38%     13 - 8 5 - 4 -12.7 -5.9 -8.7
  Feb 06, 2025 245   @ UMKC W 78-72 63%     14 - 8 6 - 4 +3.8 +16.4 -11.8
  Feb 08, 2025 187   @ Nebraska Omaha L 74-85 51%     14 - 9 6 - 5 -10.0 +3.6 -14.4
  Feb 13, 2025 322   Oral Roberts W 94-88 OT 89%     15 - 9 7 - 5 -6.0 +5.1 -11.6
  Feb 15, 2025 315   Denver W 89-84 OT 88%     16 - 9 8 - 5 -6.7 +4.1 -11.2
  Feb 19, 2025 111   @ South Dakota St. W 77-68 33%     17 - 9 9 - 5 +14.8 +13.6 +2.1
  Feb 22, 2025 278   @ North Dakota W 82-77 67%    
  Feb 26, 2025 243   South Dakota W 89-81 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 3.1 3.1 2nd
3rd 3.3 23.4 26.6 3rd
4th 1.7 32.7 27.4 61.8 4th
5th 5.5 2.9 8.4 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 7.2 38.9 53.9 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 53.9% 23.7% 23.7% 12.7 0.0 5.0 6.8 1.1 0.0 41.1
10-6 38.9% 20.0% 20.0% 13.2 1.1 4.4 2.1 0.1 31.1
9-7 7.2% 15.7% 15.7% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 6.1
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 6.2 11.6 3.7 0.2 78.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.8% 100.0% 12.7 0.1 38.8 52.9 8.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.8%
Lose Out 2.7%