North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#130
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#107
Pace63.6#312
Improvement+6.5#1

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#57
First Shot+5.0#54
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#192
Layup/Dunks-5.7#343
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+13.7#1
Freethrows-2.5#315
Improvement+3.1#13

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#268
First Shot-4.6#325
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#62
Layups/Dunks-3.3#303
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#95
Freethrows+1.9#59
Improvement+3.4#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.6% 28.6% 23.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 97.7% 98.7% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 95.0% 92.1%
Conference Champion 37.2% 39.0% 30.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round27.5% 28.6% 23.8%
Second Round2.7% 3.0% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 78.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 22 - 2
Quad 34 - 57 - 6
Quad 414 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 153   Illinois St. L 68-77 67%     0 - 1 -11.8 -2.3 -10.2
  Nov 11, 2024 229   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-86 59%     0 - 2 -5.6 +15.6 -21.6
  Nov 13, 2024 72   @ Santa Clara W 88-80 OT 20%     1 - 2 +18.6 +12.1 +5.8
  Nov 18, 2024 168   @ Southern Illinois L 44-69 48%     1 - 3 -22.6 -22.7 -1.7
  Nov 26, 2024 112   @ Samford L 98-103 OT 33%     1 - 4 +1.4 +18.4 -16.7
  Nov 27, 2024 341   West Georgia W 73-61 89%     2 - 4 +0.6 -0.9 +2.2
  Nov 28, 2024 148   Utah Valley W 83-63 56%     3 - 4 +20.4 +27.4 -3.5
  Dec 04, 2024 208   @ Weber St. W 77-73 54%     4 - 4 +4.8 +13.7 -8.4
  Dec 07, 2024 197   Northern Colorado W 82-70 73%     5 - 4 +7.4 -2.3 +8.5
  Dec 10, 2024 74   @ Butler W 71-68 20%     6 - 4 +13.5 +13.1 +0.9
  Dec 15, 2024 296   Western Michigan W 98-62 87%     7 - 4 +25.8 +23.3 +4.0
  Dec 23, 2024 229   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 02, 2025 142   St. Thomas W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 298   Nebraska Omaha W 79-67 87%    
  Jan 09, 2025 294   @ Oral Roberts W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 318   @ Denver W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 16, 2025 240   UMKC W 76-67 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 235   @ South Dakota W 84-81 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 278   North Dakota W 81-70 85%    
  Jan 30, 2025 123   South Dakota St. W 75-73 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 142   @ St. Thomas L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 06, 2025 240   @ UMKC W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 298   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 13, 2025 294   Oral Roberts W 81-69 85%    
  Feb 15, 2025 318   Denver W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 19, 2025 123   @ South Dakota St. L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 278   @ North Dakota W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 26, 2025 235   South Dakota W 87-78 79%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.1 8.0 11.4 8.8 4.4 1.0 37.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.7 9.7 8.3 3.2 0.4 27.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.5 4.3 1.0 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 6.3 9.6 14.5 17.4 17.4 14.6 9.3 4.4 1.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
15-1 100.0% 4.4    4.3 0.1
14-2 95.3% 8.8    7.7 1.1 0.0
13-3 78.1% 11.4    7.9 3.3 0.2
12-4 46.4% 8.0    3.7 3.5 0.8 0.0
11-5 18.1% 3.1    0.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 37.2% 37.2 25.3 9.7 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.0% 52.1% 52.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-1 4.4% 47.9% 47.9% 12.1 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.3
14-2 9.3% 43.8% 43.8% 12.5 0.1 2.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.2
13-3 14.6% 37.3% 37.3% 12.8 0.0 1.6 3.0 0.8 0.0 9.1
12-4 17.4% 31.0% 31.0% 13.2 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.5 0.1 12.0
11-5 17.4% 25.9% 25.9% 13.6 0.2 1.9 2.0 0.4 12.9
10-6 14.5% 18.7% 18.7% 13.9 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 11.8
9-7 9.6% 16.0% 16.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 8.1
8-8 6.3% 12.8% 12.8% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 5.5
7-9 3.2% 10.5% 10.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.9
6-10 1.6% 7.5% 7.5% 15.4 0.1 0.1 1.5
5-11 0.6% 6.0% 6.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-12 0.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 27.6% 27.6% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.2 11.3 7.0 2.2 0.2 72.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.1 1.3 1.3 5.1 11.0 44.9 35.6 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%